My Winter Outlook

[hosj III]

Starting to feel more confident with this idea. January PV breakdown should be fun to watch..could be a big time midwinter -AO, in my opinion.

As you seem to be one of the most more knowledgeble people in this subforum, could you explain why December blocking looks mediocre? Does it have to due with the expected cold stratosphere in east siberia?

[Deck Pic]

As you seem to be one of the most more knowledgeble people in this subforum, could you explain why December blocking looks mediocre? Does it have to due with the expected cold stratosphere in east siberia?

 

that's a good thing...why would you want to waste the blocky portion of a mean -AO/NAO on a period of wretched climo...

[hosj III]

that's a good thing...why would you want to waste the blocky portion of a mean -AO/NAO on a period of wretched climo...

 

I'd rather have our -AO period run from Dec 20th-Feb 20th than Jan 20th to March 20th

[Ellinwood]

Initial winter forecast for DCA:

Dec: 0 to -1

Jan: 0 to -1

Feb: -2 to -3

DJF snow: 12-18"

Updated forecast for DCA... just made January a little colder:

Dec: 0 to -1

Jan: -1 to -2

Feb: -2 to -3

DJF snow: 12-18"

National maps and bullet point reasoning+risks: http://madusweather.com/2014/10/winter-2014-2015-djf-forecast/

Nothing that in-depth and nothing you haven't heard a bunch of other people already say. I see more potential for winter to verify colder than my forecast vs. warmer, especially for the N+W burbs. The snow forecast is really just for fun... I could care less about whether or not that verifies.

[WxUSAF]

Nice forecast, Ellinwood.  Those sort of temp departures seem more plausible than a -5 DJF. 

[mattie g]

Nice forecast, Ellinwood.  Those sort of temp departures seem more plausible than a -5 DJF. 

 

Has anyone forecast a -5 DJF?

[WxUSAF]

Has anyone forecast a -5 DJF?

JB

[mattie g]

JB

 

I thought we were in his -3 to -5 area, which doesn't exactly mean -5.

[WxUSAF]

I thought we were in his -3 to -5 area, which doesn't exactly mean -5.

-4 to -6

[mattie g]

-4 to -6

 

Ah.  I stand corrected.

 

But that could mean -4.

[WxUSAF]

Ah.  I stand corrected.

 

But that could mean -4.

Yes, and I'm sure he'll verify his forecast based on a -3 at Winchester or Frederick while DCA is -0.1. 

[WEATHER53]

If you wish-Those of you who made forecasts as we get near the end of each month, say like the 22nd/23rd, do an assessment of your monthly breakdown and then wrap it up at the end of the month. As we get to Feb begin to review your Winter forecast as a whole.

 

I saw Isotherm did his someone else so if you wish consolidate into this thread and others are welcome to bring their over from wherever it is now.

 

I think November gave us an example and in fact I think winter has started.  Some regions did experience record cold. I think parts of DC-Balt region will make that claim later on.

 

December does not excite me much, I had it at -1, but the 2nd half looks cold for now.

[StudentOfClimatology]

If you wish-Those of you who made forecasts as we get near the end of each month, say like the 22nd/23rd, do an assessment of your monthly breakdown and then wrap it up at the end of the month. As we get to Feb begin to review your Winter forecast as a whole.

I saw Isotherm did his someone else so if you wish consolidate into this thread and others are welcome to bring their over from wherever it is now.

I think November gave us an example and in fact I think winter has started. Some regions did experience record cold. I think parts of DC-Balt region will make that claim later on.

December does not excite me much, I had it at -1, but the 2nd half looks cold for now.

Do you still think the 2nd portion of the month will run cold? I hope you're right about that.

I'm not worried about winter yet. The warmish, Pacific driven December was something I sort-of anticipated based on the observed autumnal poleward AAM transport and progression of the tropical forcings. I went +1 for December, but that could bust in either direction I guess..

[CAPE]

Do you still think the 2nd portion of the month will run cold? I hope you're right about that.

I'm not worried about winter yet. The warmish, Pacific driven December was something I sort-of anticipated based on the observed autumnal poleward AAM transport and progression of the tropical forcings. I went +1 for December, but that could bust in either direction I guess..

Your December call is looking pretty damn good. With that big GOA low not wanting to go anywhere, a very +NAO, and the PV looking like it will begin its weakening/destruction towards the end of the month.... other than perfectly timing something I would say the odds of any significant winter weather for the MA is off the table till maybe the last week of the month.

[WEATHER53]

Your December call is looking pretty damn good. With that big GOA low not wanting to go anywhere, a very +NAO, and the PV looking like it will begin its weakening/destruction towards the end of the month.... other than perfectly timing something I would say the odds of any significant winter weather for the MA is off the table till maybe the last week of the month.

I believe, and stated in mid Nov, that the models will show mild periods that do not materilize in the 7+ day outlooks. They did that in Nov. I did not have December that cold anyway and it was the only month that showed a chance for + values to me. I do not think it is sound weather discussion to state on the 2nd of a month that the opportunity for winter weather is over until the last week of the month. 

[CAPE]

I believe, and stated in mid Nov, that the models will show mild periods that do not materilize in the 7+ day outlooks. They did that in Nov. I did not have December that cold anyway and it was the only month that showed a chance for + values to me. I do not think it is sound weather discussion to state on the 2nd of a month that the opportunity for winter weather is over until the last week of the month. 

I did not state that winter was over until then. We could always get lucky and time a wave on the tail end of a cold front. However it is undeniable the current pattern is a bad one, and that once certain anomalies become established in the atmosphere, they dont just simply disappear. Therefore I think it is reasonable to expect that it will take some time for the current pattern to break down, and to establish a colder, more favorable one. The model guidance simply continues to support this idea of persistence. Doesn't mean its etched in stone, or cant happen a bit sooner.

[Isotherm]

If you wish-Those of you who made forecasts as we get near the end of each month, say like the 22nd/23rd, do an assessment of your monthly breakdown and then wrap it up at the end of the month. As we get to Feb begin to review your Winter forecast as a whole.

 

I saw Isotherm did his someone else so if you wish consolidate into this thread and others are welcome to bring their over from wherever it is now.

 

I think November gave us an example and in fact I think winter has started.  Some regions did experience record cold. I think parts of DC-Balt region will make that claim later on.

 

December does not excite me much, I had it at -1, but the 2nd half looks cold for now.

 

 

 

In my outlook, I made a forecast for the CONUS departures and locally (NYC) for the meteorological winter, did not issue values on a monthly basis, but provided my thoughts on the likely progression of winter based on research. So what I noted in the outlook was that December's first half would likely be warmer than normal, and the month as a whole could finish as mild as "near normal" in the temperature department. Even my warmest analogs for December, namely, 2003, 1979, and to a lesser extent 1986, all finished fairly close to 0 in temperature departures for the PHL-NYC corridor. My thoughts on this month's CONUS temp distribution was a pattern similar to the aforementioned years, with a very warm / torchy Plains/Rockies/Mid-west, and generally near normal along the East Coast.

 

We're already seeing evidence in short/medium term guidance that frequent chilly surface highs will try to scrape the Northeast / East, keeping our temperatures generally moderate, biased a bit warmer than normal overall. We'll likely see a transient torch at some point as well, but not to the magnitude or duration of folks further west. And I don't think we'll be building up such enormous positives ala 2011 or 2012 through the 15th that they can't be knocked down a significant amount for the final 10 days or so of the month.

 

But I agree, and I think most of us are on the same page, with December being the warmest relative to normal of the three months. My expectation was near normal for the East Coast. Then a January and February that would likely produce combined departures of at least -5, such the meteorological winter period would end up -1.5 to -2.5 for the I-95 corridor. So obviously Jan/Feb have to be pretty big winter months temperature wise for my forecast to verify, and this is probably the case for others as well.

 

So far, I'm not seeing anything in the pattern that would suggest throwing in towels right now. Things look to be on track.

[MillvilleWx]

In my outlook, I made a forecast for the CONUS departures and locally (NYC) for the meteorological winter, did not issue values on a monthly basis, but provided my thoughts on the likely progression of winter based on research. So what I noted in the outlook was that December's first half would likely be warmer than normal, and the month as a whole could finish as mild as "near normal" in the temperature department. Even my warmest analogs for December, namely, 2003, 1979, and to a lesser extent 1986, all finished fairly close to 0 in temperature departures for the PHL-NYC corridor. My thoughts on this month's CONUS temp distribution was a pattern similar to the aforementioned years, with a very warm / torchy Plains/Rockies/Mid-west, and generally near normal along the East Coast.

We're already seeing evidence in short/medium term guidance that frequent chilly surface highs will try to scrape the Northeast / East, keeping our temperatures generally moderate, biased a bit warmer than normal overall. We'll likely see a transient torch at some point as well, but not to the magnitude or duration of folks further west. And I don't think we'll be building up such enormous positives ala 2011 or 2012 through the 15th that they can't be knocked down a significant amount for the final 10 days or so of the month.

But I agree, and I think most of us are on the same page, with December being the warmest relative to normal of the three months. My expectation was near normal for the East Coast. Then a January and February that would likely produce combined departures of at least -5, such the meteorological winter period would end up -1.5 to -2.5 for the I-95 corridor. So obviously Jan/Feb have to be pretty big winter months temperature wise for my forecast to verify, and this is probably the case for others as well.

So far, I'm not seeing anything in the pattern that would suggest throwing in towels right now. Things look to be on track.

Thanks Isotherm. Great write up

[WEATHER53]

Temperatures: Below average-well below average

Snowfall:Above average-well above average

 

Monthly Temps

Dec:-1

Jan:-5

Feb:-2

Overall:-2.5 to -3.5

 

Snowfall

DCA:25"

IAD/BWI:30-35"

 

 

 Analog years:1953(54),1955(56),1963,1976,1980,1981,1983,1984,2001.

 

 

I edited this about 30 minutes after posting.  I do not have a primary analog this year.  I do think the extreme cold air intrusions that the early 80's demonstrated is the sort of set up we will have.  Those shots were not winter long but when they hit it was -20 and colder departures.

December was a bust, January is going to be about -1 which surely is not -5 but definitely below average just not extremely so.  The extreme cold I envisioned well may now be on it's way and a -2 call for February is pretty cold.  Snowfall not to the levels I anticipated but that looks to change.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Not to pat myself on the back, but despite my miss on the midwinter SSW/-AO, I think this is pretty good considering I posted this back in September.

Regarding the PV, elasticity has been winning out thus far..the vortex has had a tendency to vertically stack relatively quickly after perturbation(s), which has made it tough to transition from the typical wave responses into a full blown SSW..

My outlook:

Have some doubts about December blocking for a lot of reasons, but thinking weak PV & N-PAC-sourced cyclonic breakers under a favorable QBO/ENSO will give us a SSW around New Years, and blocking for January and possibly February as well.

December, +1, dominated by Pacific vorticity?

January -3, possible SSW, will it be an effective propagator?

February: -1, mixed signals?

Snowfall, 13-23" around I95 corridor.

Overall, thinking a slightly colder than average winter, with blocking kicking into high gear in January.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Not to pat myself on the back, but despite my miss on the midwinter SSW/-AO, I think this is pretty good considering I posted this back in September.

Regarding the PV, elasticity has been winning out thus far..the vortex has had a tendency to vertically stack relatively quickly after perturbation(s), which has made it tough to transition from the typical wave responses into a full blown SSW..

 

 

I was trying to remember where your outlook was on here cause I remember you posting it- yours has been pretty good so far.

[WEATHER53]

Temperatures: Below average-well below average

Snowfall:Above average-well above average

 

Monthly Temps

Dec:-1

Jan:-5

Feb:-2

Overall:-2.5 to -3.5

 

Snowfall

DCA:25"

IAD/BWI:30-35"

 

 

 Analog years:1953(54),1955(56),1963,1976,1980,1981,1983,1984,2001.

 

 

I edited this about 30 minutes after posting.  I do not have a primary analog this year.  I do think the extreme cold air intrusions that the early 80's demonstrated is the sort of set up we will have.  Those shots were not winter long but when they hit it was -20 and colder departures.

Snowfall is undetermined yet but temperatures I am happy with.

December was a bust. Slightly redeeming is that I had it as the mildest and it was.

Janaury I had too cold.

February I had cold and it was colder.

I am very happy that from as far back as mid September I predicted an exceptionally cold month and we have had one. Yes, it was Feb and not Jan but that does not much diminish the correct recognition.

The overall cold call of -2.5 to -3.5 will not quite be realized but it looks like we will finish -1.5 to -2 and that makes the overall call a good one.  I am also happy I referenced the early 80's and multiple -20 departure values.

[Ji]

Snowfall is undetermined yet but temperatures I am happy with.

December was a bust. Slightly redeeming is that I had it as the mildest and it was.

Janaury I had too cold.

February I had cold and it was colder.

I am very happy that from as far back as mid September I predicted an exceptionally cold month and we have had one. Yes, it was Feb and not Jan but that does not much diminish the correct recognition.

The overall cold call of -2.5 to -3.5 will not quite be realized but it looks like we will finish -1.5 to -2 and that makes the overall call a good one.  I am also happy I referenced the early 80's and multiple -20 departure values.

nice call howie. Better than Ka

[WEATHER53]

Updated forecast for DCA... just made January a little colder:

Dec: 0 to -1

Jan: -1 to -2

Feb: -2 to -3

DJF snow: 12-18"

National maps and bullet point reasoning+risks: http://madusweather.com/2014/10/winter-2014-2015-djf-forecast/

Nothing that in-depth and nothing you haven't heard a bunch of other people already say. I see more potential for winter to verify colder than my forecast vs. warmer, especially for the N+W burbs. The snow forecast is really just for fun... I could care less about whether or not that verifies.

This is a good one

December a bust but January good and Feb good. The overall of -1 to -2 is looking excellent.

Snowfall looking good.

[WEATHER53]

In my outlook, I made a forecast for the CONUS departures and locally (NYC) for the meteorological winter, did not issue values on a monthly basis, but provided my thoughts on the likely progression of winter based on research. So what I noted in the outlook was that December's first half would likely be warmer than normal, and the month as a whole could finish as mild as "near normal" in the temperature department. Even my warmest analogs for December, namely, 2003, 1979, and to a lesser extent 1986, all finished fairly close to 0 in temperature departures for the PHL-NYC corridor. My thoughts on this month's CONUS temp distribution was a pattern similar to the aforementioned years, with a very warm / torchy Plains/Rockies/Mid-west, and generally near normal along the East Coast.

 

We're already seeing evidence in short/medium term guidance that frequent chilly surface highs will try to scrape the Northeast / East, keeping our temperatures generally moderate, biased a bit warmer than normal overall. We'll likely see a transient torch at some point as well, but not to the magnitude or duration of folks further west. And I don't think we'll be building up such enormous positives ala 2011 or 2012 through the 15th that they can't be knocked down a significant amount for the final 10 days or so of the month.

 

But I agree, and I think most of us are on the same page, with December being the warmest relative to normal of the three months. My expectation was near normal for the East Coast. Then a January and February that would likely produce combined departures of at least -5, such the meteorological winter period would end up -1.5 to -2.5 for the I-95 corridor. So obviously Jan/Feb have to be pretty big winter months temperature wise for my forecast to verify, and this is probably the case for others as well.

 

So far, I'm not seeing anything in the pattern that would suggest throwing in towels right now. Things look to be on track.

This is a great call.

December off on temps but not disaster, -5 Jan Feb call a bold one and that's excellent.  Overall of -1.5 to -2.5 likely bullseye.

Dont see anything about snow so show me or tell me(we trust)

[StudentOfClimatology]

I'll give myself a B+ this year. I underestimated the elasticity of the PV, which screwed up my AO forecast. Otherwise, I think I got the general progression right.

My outlook:

December, +1, dominated by Pacific vorticity?

January -3, possible SSW, will it be an effective propagator?

February: -1, mixed signals?

Snowfall, 13-23" around I95 corridor.

Overall, thinking a slightly colder than average winter, with blocking kicking into high gear in January.

December: A-. Expected the +AO/+EPO following the observed autumnal poleward AAM transport. Underestimated the magnitude of the warmth.

January: B. Did see the flip to cold following the wave-breaking event over the NPAC. However, I did not expect the highly elastic/barotropic PV to single handedly prevent the feedback process that would have led to a SSW and tanked the AO.

February: B. Got the temperature signal right, but I underestimated the severity of the cold. I also thought we'd see more in the way of temperature swings than we really did.

Overall, not too bad, in my opinion. Would have verified better if we'd actually gotten the SSW. Live, love, learn.

[87storms]

i guess the non-scientific argument could be made that we are due for back to back great winters which is sort of why i wouldn't be surprised if we have one. it's just not something that should be expected. from my experience here, we've been either boom or bust the last 20 something years. i preferred the 80s style winters because you kind of expected some snow. we've had some real legit snow droughts since then, though that's also included a few of my favorite storms...93, 96, 03, and 10. my gut feeling is that we don't get the big one this year, but we don't get shut out either. my money is on us getting around 15"...a respectable winter.

Hmmm so far my thoughts on this winter don't completely suck.

[WEATHER53]

We are due for a warm snowless winter

Nailed it again my brother.

[WEATHER53]

Tenman likes to drop his load in the CC forum, just paying it forward here. His forecast will not verify, he is a irrational snow lover and CC denier.

Nailed it.

[WEATHER53]

I'll give myself a B+ this year. I underestimated the elasticity of the PV, which screwed up my AO forecast. Otherwise, I think I got the general progression right.

December: A-. Expected the +AO/+EPO following the observed autumnal poleward AAM transport. Underestimated the magnitude of the warmth.

January: B. Did see the flip to cold following the wave-breaking event over the NPAC. However, I did not expect the highly elastic/barotropic PV to single handedly prevent the feedback process that would have led to a SSW and tanked the AO.

February: B. Got the temperature signal right, but I underestimated the severity of the cold. I also thought we'd see more in the way of temperature swings than we really did.

Overall, not too bad, in my opinion. Would have verified better if we'd actually gotten the SSW. Live, love, learn.

I think December was a B, January a C(you and I both went very cold and it was an around average month so I just dont think -3 or -5 call are good, not bad, just average) and I think the February call was B/B-. Snowfall looks very good.