My Winter Outlook

[mitchnick]

You are missing the forest for the trees here, only such a scenario can arise in a AGW climate.

since the world's going to end, should I or shouldn't I get new shoes this weekend?

[GaWx]

So does anyone think they will actually be colder and snowier than 2013-2014? The PV dropped south 6 times due to the -EPO, which was caused by the historic blocking in the NPAC

 

 In the DC area south to the SE, you'd better dang believe I think it will be colder than last DJF should a weak Nino, +PDO, and -NAO all be predominant this winter. The first two look quite likely as of now. Also, the -NAO has a better than 50% shot imo. I'm not predicting snow. I know it will be hard to even meet last years's 250% of normal S/IP at ATL though it would certainly be doable.

[AvantHiatus]

since the world's going to end, should I or shouldn't I get new shoes this weekend?

Invasion of the Polar Vortex!

[Bob Chill]

So does anyone think they will actually be colder and snowier than 2013-2014? The PV dropped south 6 times due to the -EPO, which was caused by the historic blocking in the NPAC

If it happens it won't be for the same reasons. The pattern last year is rare. Like twice since I've been alive rare.

It wasn't even that cold on the means here. What made it memorable was the severity of the cold. But there was no persistent blocking so there was no problem warming up 3 days after the pv dropped in. Snow wise we got lucky and maximised progressive flow. We crushed march to the extent that it made march seem like its a snowy month. March sucks here. The fact that we crushed it means nothing going forward.

There is zero reason to set expectations based on last year's pattern. If we get snow and cold it will be for different reasons.

[mitchnick]

If it happens it won't be for the same reasons. The pattern last year is rare. Like twice since I've been alive rare.

It wasn't even that cold on the means here. What made it memorable was the severity of the cold. But there was no persistent blocking so there was no problem warming up 3 days after the pv dropped in. Snow wise we got lucky and maximised progressive flow. We crushed march to the extent that it made march seem like its a snowy month. March sucks here. The fact that we crushed it means nothing going forward.

There is zero reason to set expectations based on last year's pattern. If we get snow and cold it will be for different reasons.

idk Bob, PAC SSTAs are similar to last year and support a trough NE of Hawaii which would lead to a ridge over AK

not to the same extent, of course, but in tandem with other conditions typical of weak NINOs, it could certainly deliver some cold shiat to us similar to last year which one might argue is "similar" to last year.

[WEATHER53]

Polar vortex likley dislodged this way again and I think this time we will get the direct shots down upon us from Western NY/PA and not the "rollerover" cold from Chicago, Ohio Valley.

[AvantHiatus]

Polar vortex likley dislodged this way again and I think this time we will get the direct shots down upon us from Western NY/PA and not the "rollerover" cold from Chicago, Ohio Valley.

Suppression city without a -NAO...

[WEATHER53]

Suppression city without a -NAO...

You do have to be concerned about that but it's a good problem to have.

[AlaskaETC]

Nice to see DT call out Weatherguy...

[StudentOfClimatology]

Suppression city without a -NAO...

Huh? Suppression city is a heavy -NAO phenomenon.

[StudentOfClimatology]

You are missing the forest for the trees here, only such a scenario can arise in a AGW climate.

Bulls**t. We're talking gradients here, not absolutes.

[AvantHiatus]

Here we go again, i'm out. How is -NAO a suppression state? It blocks up the flow and allows things to phase, if the mean position of the 500mb setup is positioned too far east, storms will phase to our east and miss the region. The cold coming down right over us through Central PA is bad for snow, all things equal.

 

Ironically, this is also true for hurricanes, -NAO seems to be a gateway for extreme weather here. It is the opposite of progressiveness.

 

2013 was an outlier as many have stated before. Despite the absence of classic indicators, we still managed well. I think this is why you are underestimating the importance of -NAO.

[AvantHiatus]

Nice to see DT call out Weatherguy...

DT is JB's little pet.

[Absolute Humidity]

Here we go again, i'm out. How is -NAO a suppression state? It blocks up the flow and allows things to phase, if the mean position of the 500mb setup is positioned too far east, storms will phase to our east and miss the region. The cold coming down right over us through Central PA is bad for snow, all things equal.

 

Ironically, this is also true for hurricanes, -NAO seems to be a gateway for extreme weather here. It is the opposite of progressiveness.

 

2013 was an outlier as many have stated before. Despite the absence of classic indicators, we still managed well. I think this is why you are underestimating the importance of -NAO.

There was massive Scandinavian blocking last winter that acted as a pseudo -NAO which slowed the progressive pattern down just enough to prevent LP's from slipping out to sea. If we had true -NAO, last winter would have been quite dry and suppressed minus the transition intervals. The Scand blocking in concert with -EPO pretty much guaranteed us a snowy winter.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Here we go again, i'm out. How is -NAO a suppression state? It blocks up the flow and allows things to phase, if the mean position of the 500mb setup is positioned too far east, storms will phase to our east and miss the region. The cold coming down right over us through Central PA is bad for snow, all things equal.

Ironically, this is also true for hurricanes, -NAO seems to be a gateway for extreme weather here. It is the opposite of progressiveness.

2013 was an outlier as many have stated before. Despite the absence of classic indicators, we still managed well. I think this is why you are underestimating the importance of -NAO.

Storm track is determined by a lot more than "phasing". You can get big phasers without downstream blocking. Problem is they'll usually cut well west and we'll get warm-sectored. A lack of downstream blocking generally results in zonal flow and a poleward-oriented jet on this side of the continent, allowing storms to cut/traverse N. Suppression is usually a result of -NAO kinematic forcing combined with poor SW timing.

[Bob Chill]

idk Bob, PAC SSTAs are similar to last year and support a trough NE of Hawaii which would lead to a ridge over AK

not to the same extent, of course, but in tandem with other conditions typical of weak NINOs, it could certainly deliver some cold shiat to us similar to last year which one might argue is "similar" to last year.

I'm not sold on similar ssta config in the ne Pac. It's under assault right now and an overall stormy and cool pattern looks to continue. However, if the lowest heights centered over and south of the aleutians we could end up with a more classic +pdo config with warm anomalies closest to the west coast but not nearly as expansive as last year. We'll just have to wait and see where we are in Nov-dec.

This scenario would be fine of course because it may be a sign that we'll have a +pna on the means. I'll have to dig up some stats on the epo. I don't think anomalous years run in streaks but I'll have to dig a little before my thoughts have any merit.

[mattie g]

Nice to see DT call out Weatherguy...

Not really. Flat track bully comes in and reignites a long-dead debate that doesn't belong here.

[87storms]

I still believe that we are in a realm that none of us have experinced via internet weather discussions. There were plenty of back to back in times gone by.

I am going to post another party's outlook in a new thread here early Monday morning.

Have HM or Isotherm generated any ideas yet?

I've lived here most of my life...let's just call it about 30 years. I don't recall too many if any back to back great winters if you consider big storms as a great winter. Last winter was odd because it was mostly a bunch of moderate storms...reminiscent of the 80s but better...which is why it wouldn't surprise me if we get a big one this winter. However it would surprise me if we have a similar winter to last year. Our average temp is 10 degrees above freezing in January for a reason.

[T. August]

Of course it's way more complex than that. That is just the main reason why we don't see winters like 1899 anymore. 

I used that image because it was the first one that popped up on google images.

BWI recorded 51.1" that winter. This is also my exact snow total this past winter.

 

In '95-'96, BWI recorded 62.5". In 2002-2003, they recorded 58.1". In 2009-2010, BWI recorded the snowiest winter in history, with 77.0".

 

I don't see your point.

[mitchnick]

BWI recorded 51.1" that winter. This is also my exact snow total this past winter.

 

In '95-'96, BWI recorded 62.5". In 2002-2003, they recorded 58.1". In 2009-2010, BWI recorded the snowiest winter in history, with 77.0".

 

I don't see your point.

nope, it was either the Customs House or some other location in Baltimore City in 1899

[T. August]

3 of the top 10 years are since 1996. There is 100 years of data before that date. Of course there will be more on the top 10 from the pre-'96 years as opposed to '96-present.

[T. August]

nope, it was either the Customs House or some other location in Baltimore City in 1899

My bad. This is where I got the stats.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/bwisnow.txt

 

Well, wherever it was, they got that much lol... 

[Sparky]

I've lived here most of my life...let's just call it about 30 years. I don't recall too many if any back to back great winters if you consider big storms as a great winter. Last winter was odd because it was mostly a bunch of moderate storms...reminiscent of the 80s but better...which is why it wouldn't surprise me if we get a big one this winter. However it would surprise me if we have a similar winter to last year. Our average temp is 10 degrees above freezing in January for a reason.

the only back to back that stands out in my mind is 77/78 and 78/79.  And lets not overlook the winter preceding the two of those snowy ones, 76/77 which was awesome on its own merits.

[Sparky]

I believe the 60s had a good duo, if not more than one, 65/66 and 66/67 perhaps being one of them.  It is not that fresh in my memory though as I was young just the big storms stick out like the blizz of 66 and Christmas 66.

[Ji]

Temperatures: Below average-well below average

Snowfall:Above average-well above average

 

Monthly Temps

Dec:-1

Jan:-5

Feb:-2

Overall:-2.5 to -3.5

 

Snowfall

DCA:25"

IAD/BWI:30-35"

 

 

 Analog years:1953(54),1955(56),1963,1976,1980,1981,1983,1984,2001.

 

 

I edited this about 30 minutes after posting.  I do not have a primary analog this year.  I do think the extreme cold air intrusions that the early 80's demonstrated is the sort of set up we will have.  Those shots were not winter long but when they hit it was -20 and colder departures.

 

 

 

you and KA are on the same page I see

[87storms]

I believe the 60s had a good duo, if not more than one, 65/66 and 66/67 perhaps being one of them.  It is not that fresh in my memory though as I was young just the big storms stick out like the blizz of 66 and Christmas 66.

 

the only back to back that stands out in my mind is 77/78 and 78/79.  And lets not overlook the winter preceding the two of those snowy ones, 76/77 which was awesome on its own merits.

 

 

i guess the non-scientific argument could be made that we are due for back to back great winters which is sort of why i wouldn't be surprised if we have one.  it's just not something that should be expected.  from my experience here, we've been either boom or bust the last 20 something years.  i preferred the 80s style winters because you kind of expected some snow.  we've had some real legit snow droughts since then, though that's also included a few of my favorite storms...93, 96, 03, and 10.  my gut feeling is that we don't get the big one this year, but we don't get shut out either.  my money is on us getting around 15"...a respectable winter.

[AvantHiatus]

i guess the non-scientific argument could be made that we are due for back to back great winters which is sort of why i wouldn't be surprised if we have one.  it's just not something that should be expected.  from my experience here, we've been either boom or bust the last 20 something years.  i preferred the 80s style winters because you kind of expected some snow.  we've had some real legit snow droughts since then, though that's also included a few of my favorite storms...93, 96, 03, and 10.  my gut feeling is that we don't get the big one this year, but we don't get shut out either.  my money is on us getting around 15"...a respectable winter.

Good post, I agree.

[WEATHER53]

Ok. Thru the frist 1/3 of October with above average temps and like that analog wise and it fits the pattern of the analog years that I referenced in making my winter outlook.

As others have noted, and I am a big proponent of, we now need to avoid a strong east coast crawler in the last 1/3 of October.

[WEATHER53]

This is not the coastal crawler type storm that I want to avoid in last 1/3 of October. Although somewhat dynamic and having a possible substantial impact from NY and northeastward it is not the same as a well wrapped low  from FL/GA border  slowly moving northeastward with heavy wet mountain snows and chilly 40-45* rain from RIC-BOS.

[StudentOfClimatology]

My outlook:

Have some doubts about December blocking for a lot of reasons, but thinking weak PV & N-PAC-sourced cyclonic breakers under a favorable QBO/ENSO will give us a SSW around New Years, and blocking for January and possibly February as well.

December, +1, dominated by Pacific vorticity?

January -3, possible SSW, will it be an effective propagator?

February: -1, mixed signals?

Snowfall, 13-23" around I95 corridor.

Overall, thinking a slightly colder than average winter, with blocking kicking into high gear in January.

Starting to feel more confident with this idea. January PV breakdown should be fun to watch..could be a big time midwinter -AO, in my opinion.