My Winter Outlook

[hosj III]

I still believe that we are in a realm that none of us have experinced via internet weather discussions. There were plenty of back to back in times gone by.

I am going to post another party's outlook in a new thread here early Monday morning.

Have HM or Isotherm generated any ideas yet?

I'd really like to believe that, but isn't that what everyone was saying after 09-10? Then we had the gut-punch of boxing day.

 

I still think we are in for a pretty good winter, and I agree with SoC that the money period may be mid-January through early February, but all this rationale of "a new pattern" doesn't strike me as very scientific. 

[SoCoWx]

I'd really like to believe that, but isn't that what everyone was saying after 09-10? Then we had the gut-punch of boxing day.

 

I still think we are in for a pretty good winter, and I agree with SoC that the money period may be mid-January through early February, but all this rationale of "a new pattern" doesn't strike me as very scientific. 

May have been a gut punch for you, but southeastern Virginia and northeastern NC cashed in big time!

[WinterWxLuvr]

I've never tried predicting weather much less a seasons worth, but I'll give it a semi-serious attempt.

-1 to -2 DJF avg

Normal precip DJF

125-150% climo seasonal snow

Best analogs (15 min research )

1968-69

1963-64

2002-2003

LOL, makes me laugh just doing this

[winterymix]

My hunch, as others have suggested, is moderate el nino with January being

the best month for snow in the MA.

 

Before getting too cocky about the new winter, what lessens have we learned from this most recent winter?

 

I'd like to know when and based on what evidence, last winter, the more advanced amateurs around here knew that the winter was going to bust high.  For me, it took a couple of over-performing systems

in December before it occurred to me that the winter wasn't going to suck.  I expected a winter long

stinker until I had to get the snow blower out repeatedly.

 

As someone pointed out, how persistent will that warm anomaly in the GOA persist and will it do what we'd like and make a persistent west coast ridge that opens up the cold floodgates for the East?

[WEATHER53]

My hunch, as others have suggested, is moderate el nino with January being

the best month for snow in the MA.

 

Before getting too cocky about the new winter, what lessens have we learned from this most recent winter?

 

I'd like to know when and based on what evidence, last winter, the more advanced amateurs around here knew that the winter was going to bust high.  For me, it took a couple of over-performing systems

in December before it occurred to me that the winter wasn't going to suck.  I expected a winter long

stinker until I had to get the snow blower out repeatedly.

 

As someone pointed out, how persistent will that warm anomaly in the GOA persist and will it do what we'd like and make a persistent west coast ridge that opens up the cold floodgates for the East?

You last sentence is right I think.

[Ellinwood]

Initial winter forecast for DCA:

Dec: 0 to -1

Jan: 0 to -1

Feb: -2 to -3

DJF temp: -1 to -2

DJF snow: 12-18"

Analog years: 2006-07, 2004-05, 1994-95, 1977-78, 1976-77, 1958-59 (I don't use pre-1950 years)

Track record for seasonal forecasting has been about 50/50 since I started in 2010.

I will probably post an update with full reasoning in late October.

Also, hi.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Initial winter forecast for DCA:

Dec: 0 to -1

Jan: 0 to -1

Feb: -2 to -3

DJF temp: -1 to -2

DJF snow: 12-18"

Analog years: 2006-07, 2004-05, 1994-95, 1977-78, 1976-77, 1958-59 (I don't use pre-1950 years)

Track record for seasonal forecasting has been about 50/50 since I started in 2010.

I will probably post an update with full reasoning in late October.

Also, hi.

 

I'd take this in a heart beat.

[WxUSAF]

Initial winter forecast for DCA:

Dec: 0 to -1

Jan: 0 to -1

Feb: -2 to -3

DJF temp: -1 to -2

DJF snow: 12-18"

Analog years: 2006-07, 2004-05, 1994-95, 1977-78, 1976-77, 1958-59 (I don't use pre-1950 years)

Track record for seasonal forecasting has been about 50/50 since I started in 2010.

I will probably post an update with full reasoning in late October.

Also, hi.

Sold.  Welcome back.  

[PhineasC]

Ellinwood with the score.

[MN Transplant]

Initial winter forecast for DCA:

Dec: 0 to -1

Jan: 0 to -1

Feb: -2 to -3

DJF temp: -1 to -2

DJF snow: 12-18"

Analog years: 2006-07, 2004-05, 1994-95, 1977-78, 1976-77, 1958-59 (I don't use pre-1950 years)

Track record for seasonal forecasting has been about 50/50 since I started in 2010.

I will probably post an update with full reasoning in late October.

Also, hi.

 

Since winter 49-50, there have been 15 winters that were below normal (vs 81-10) each month.  Average snowfall at DCA was 23.1" and the median was 15.4".

[ravensrule]

Initial winter forecast for DCA:

Dec: 0 to -1

Jan: 0 to -1

Feb: -2 to -3

DJF temp: -1 to -2

DJF snow: 12-18"

Analog years: 2006-07, 2004-05, 1994-95, 1977-78, 1976-77, 1958-59 (I don't use pre-1950 years)

Track record for seasonal forecasting has been about 50/50 since I started in 2010.

I will probably post an update with full reasoning in late October.

Also, hi.

Welcome back Mark, i hope you are right.

[Deck Pic]

This is by no means an outlook..my official outlook will come in November and that is the one I grade and it could look very different....just some very low confidence thoughts..If I had a gun to my head..

 

DEC: +1

JAN: +1

FEB: Normal

 

DJF: Normal to +1

 

DCA Snow - 12-14"

 

very very loose analogs in chron order: 1927-28, 1929-30, 1979-80, 2003-04

[uncle W]

analogs I'm looking at average -2 for the winter...25" of snow...above average precipitation...1951-52...1957-58...1963-64...1976-77...1986-87...2002-03...four great winters...one dud...five of six had above average precipitation for the winter months...I'll up date in October...

[mattie g]

analogs I'm looking at average -2 for the winter...25" of snow...above average precipitation...1951-52...1957-58...1963-64...1976-77...1986-87...2002-03...four great winters...one dud...five of six had above average precipitation for the winter months...I'll up date in October...

 

Two relative duds down here (51-52 and 76-77), but I'll take my chances with the analogs.

[AlaskaETC]

analogs I'm looking at average -2 for the winter...25" of snow...above average precipitation...1951-52...1957-58...1963-64...1976-77...1986-87...2002-03...four great winters...one dud...five of six had above average precipitation for the winter months...I'll up date in October...

 

I would be happy with that.

[uncle W]

I would be happy with that.

year.....ave temp.....precip.....snowfall

1951-52.....40.9.....10.79".....10.2"

1957-58.....35.7.....12.27".....40.4"

1963-64.....34.8.....09.08".....33.6"

1976-77.....33.2.....04.15".....11.1"

1986-87.....37.2.....11.99".....31.1"

2002-03.....34.0.....13.34".....40.4"

 

average.....35.8.....09.94".....27.8"

normal.......38.2.....08.48".....15.4"

the average of these years is a good winter in DC...By the end of October I'll add and subtract some analogs...It's still early and this is just for fun...

[mattie g]

year.....ave temp.....precip.....snowfall

1951-52.....40.9.....10.79".....10.2"

1957-58.....35.7.....12.27".....40.4"

1963-64.....34.8.....09.08".....33.6"

1976-77.....33.2.....04.15".....11.1"

1986-87.....37.2.....11.99".....31.1"

2002-03.....34.0.....13.34".....40.4"

average.....35.8.....09.94".....27.8"

normal.......38.2.....08.48".....15.4"

the average of these years is a good winter in DC...By the end of October I'll add and subtract some analogs...It's still early and this is just for fun...

Thanks for breaking that down. 51-52 was pretty warm, but not terribly wet. I just checked and see that it was a moderate Nino that dropped into weak territory by for DJF. Interesting that the temps were as warm as they were.

[WinterWxLuvr]

analogs I'm looking at average -2 for the winter...25" of snow...above average precipitation...1951-52...1957-58...1963-64...1976-77...1986-87...2002-03...four great winters...one dud...five of six had above average precipitation for the winter months...I'll up date in October...

I like that 2 of my 3 analogs show up in your list....at least I'm not completely nuts.

[aldie 22]

The acorns falling off of my acorn tree are huge this year....means something

[WinterWxLuvr]

The acorns falling off of my acorn tree are huge this year....means something

LOL, I have no idea what it means, but there's a bunch of them out here.

[mitchnick]

The acorns falling off of my acorn tree are huge this year....means something

sure does....watch your step old man 

[WEATHER53]

analogs I'm looking at average -2 for the winter...25" of snow...above average precipitation...1951-52...1957-58...1963-64...1976-77...1986-87...2002-03...four great winters...one dud...five of six had above average precipitation for the winter months...I'll up date in October...

I have 3 of those analogs and the same idea.

[Huffwx]

This is by no means an outlook..my official outlook will come in November and that is the one I grade and it could look very different....just some very low confidence thoughts..If I had a gun to my head..

 

DEC: +1

JAN: +1

FEB: Normal

 

DJF: Normal to +1

 

DCA Snow - 12-14"

 

very very loose analogs in chron order: 1927-28, 1929-30, 1979-80, 2003-04

I thought of 79 and 03 too...

[DTWXRISK]

I agree that historically this area doesn't knock down back to back often at all. Especially in the last 25 years. However, last winter should have been crappy. We just got lucky with a very unusual pattern. A pattern not seen in nearly 20 years (93-94). This winter has much more going for it overall. Not saying I think snow and cold door to door is going to come easy. I do however think at least one of the months will be productive. 

 

Not sure I get what you're saying about snowless compared to recent years. We just went through a historic snow drought. During the 3 winter stretch of 10-11 to 12-13 DC recorded a grand total of 15.2". 

 

I see no reason to doubt DC having a solid shot at least 10-15" on the year. 

[DTWXRISK]

 dude   give  it  a rest.   Your agenda  driven crap isnt fooling  anyone.

 

 WHY did the PV  drop south 6 times ?



 

See you in March. We were cold because the PV dropped down into the conus. It was unreal, this is what the polar vortex stuff is all about. Meanwhile, the Arctic was roasting away and Siberia was torching hard.

 

CC is about to leave the station my friend.

[DTWXRISK]

 wow its like you  are  making this   stuff  as you go along...

 

east based    el nino
 
97-98?

 

 the fact that is  wont  be 2013-14  doesnt mean  it wont be  97-98  all over again  which si what you appear to be saying  
 

 

 

 

Heading into winter, the strong gradient between high SSTA and continental airmasses will create a massive blocking ridge in the Pacific and Atlantic.

 

The pattern is due for a flip, and the el nino looks mostly east-based. This is why 97-98 is a key analog here. Perhaps the ONI adjustment is closer to 1.5, either way GHG and OHC forcing has advanced somewhat since 2009. I will reference back to my belief that OHC will play a big role this winter and beyond...

 

Mostly cold/dry and warm/wet, especially for I-95 east this winter. Everywhere else is a crapshoot. Also, the OHC forcing only appears when the PDO is positive. This is a key reason, in my mind why u should not expect a carbon copy of 2013.

 

Yes, Winter 2013's PDO was slightly positive, however it was negative during the summer/fall peak insolation.

 

The transition is completely different. I don't know exactly how it will turn out but it's not going to be like 2013, which most likely means warmer and less snowy. Would be challenging to beat a year like 2013 in the snow and cold department, depending on where you live.

 

 

.

 

This is why 97-98 is a key analog here. Perhaps the ONI adjustment is closer to 1.5, either way GHG and OHC forcing has advanced somewhat since 2009. I will reference back to my belief that OHC will play a big role this winter and beyond...

 

Mostly cold/dry and warm/wet, especially for I-95 east this winter. Everywhere else is a crapshoot. Also, the OHC forcing only appears when the PDO is positive. This is a key reason, in my mind why u should not expect a carbon copy of 2013.

 

Yes, Winter 2013's PDO was slightly positive, however it was negative during the summer/fall peak insolation.

 

The transition is completely different. I don't know exactly how it will turn out but it's not going to be like 2013, which most likely means warmer and less snowy. Would be challenging to beat a year like 2013 in the snow and cold department, depending on where you live.

 

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

So does anyone think they will actually be colder and snowier than 2013-2014? The PV dropped south 6 times due to the -EPO, which was caused by the historic blocking in the NPAC

[WEATHER53]

So does anyone think they will actually be colder and snowier than 2013-2014?

That is not the position you have been advancing but nice try.

 

I do not think it will be snowier but I do think it will be as cold and likely colder.

[mitchnick]

So does anyone think they will actually be colder and snowier than 2013-2014? The PV dropped south 6 times due to the -EPO, which was caused by the historic blocking in the NPAC

see anything similar to last year that is fairly persistent this year on this map?

here's a hint.....look at Alaska

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20140925.z500.gif

 

and then in later weeks, just what we want in the N PAC in OCT

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20140925.z500.gif

[AvantHiatus]

see anything similar to last year that is fairly persistent this year on this map?

here's a hint.....look at Alaska

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20140925.z500.gif

You are missing the forest for the trees here, only such a scenario can arise in a AGW climate.