My Winter Outlook

[StudentOfClimatology]

Heading into winter, the strong gradient between high SSTA and continental airmasses will create a massive blocking ridge in the Pacific and Atlantic.

I'm not aware of any literature suggesting a mechanism like this, but I guess we'll see.

The pattern is due for a flip, and the el nino looks mostly east-based. This is why 97-98 is a key analog here. Perhaps the ONI adjustment is closer to 1.5, either way GHG and OHC forcing has advanced somewhat since 2009.

Looks nothing like 1998 to me, that was an EPAC-based super Nino/+AAM. As far as GHG forcing is concerned, you're talking about less than 0.1W/m^2 flux increase since 2009. That's not even detectable in the thermals...not sure why you keep bringing it up.

I will reference back to my belief that OHC will play a big role this winter and beyond...

You mean SSTs? The deep-column OHC is not directly involved in the primary thermodynamic exchange with the atmosphere.

Also, the OHC forcing only appears when the PDO is positive. This is a key reason, in my mind why u should not expect a carbon copy of 2013.

What is "OHC forcing" and why does it only "appear" when the PDO is positive? I'm not catching your drift.

Yes, Winter 2013's PDO was slightly positive, however it was negative during the summer/fall peak insolation.

A +PDO favors a +PNA, not a -PNA. We generally see colder winters in the +PDO phase. So how does this fit in with your call for a 1997-98 repeat?

The transition is completely different. I don't know exactly how it will turn out but it's not going to be like 2013, which most likely means warmer and less snowy. Would be challenging to beat a year like 2013 in the snow and cold department, depending on where you live.

Transition in what? We have a different QBO/ENSO this winter, but both are more favorable for cold than they were in 2013-14. Still not seeing how this supports your call, but I'll sit back and see what happens, I guess.

[EastCoast NPZ]

This is slightly OT but-

Y'all can call it anything you want, but when you run 40-50% above average snowfall for the winter at the airports with close to average temps in Jan and -4+ in Feb and a -2+ departure for Mar I call it a win. Yes Nov and Dec were warm and dry, but after 1st of year it was pretty good, certainly not a bust.

LYN

Oct -1.1, zero

Nov +3.2, zero

Dec +3.0, trace

Jan  +0.8, 14.2, 9.2 1-4/5, 5.0 1-30/31

Feb -4.6, 7.5, 1.6 2-6, 2.9 2-9/10, 3.0 2-25

Mar -2.1, 8.9, 7.7 3-1/2, 1.2 3-13

ROA

Oct -3.1, 0.3, 0.3 10-10

Nov +1.5, trace

Dec +1.9, 0.2, 0.2 12-21

Jan +0.8, 14.3, 8.7 1-4/5, 5.6 1-30/31

Feb -5.6, 4.2, 1.8 2-6, 2.4 2-10

Mar -3.8, 12.0 9.3 3-1/2, 2.7 3-13/14

Just for fun-

DCA

Oct -1.0, zero (M on 10-10)

Nov +4.8, zero

Dec +4.0, trace

Jan +1.2, 8.6, 6.9 1-4/5, 1.7 1-31

Feb -2.9, 5.1, 0.3 2-6, 2.6 2-9/10, 2.2 2-28

Mar -0.6, 6.1, 4.9 3-1/2, 1.2 3-13/14

DULLES

Oct -1.5, zero (M on 10-10)

Nov +3.2, zero

Dec +3.5, 0.2, 0.2 12-20

Jan -0.5, 9.9, 8.2 1-4/5, 0.3 1-25, 1.4 1-31

Feb -5.2, 5.6, 0.7 2-6, 2.0 2-9, 2.9 2-28

Mar -2.3, 9.8, 6.4 3-1/2, 3.4 3-13/14

 

Better than I expected at the airports, but that doesn't fit my memory of the snow out here that winter.  Perhaps we were fringed on some of those events.  DCA did a bit better than IAD relative to normal; I suspect that trend continued as you moved farther west.  I do recall a 9" event late in the season that started out as rain and turned to snow mid-day and continued into the night.  The only other notable event I can recall is the incredible Oct storm.  Now, I'm basing this argument on the met winter snow and not yearly total.  Including that ridiculous 14" event on Oct 10, we actually had a good snow total, but DJF underwhelmed.  The cold snaps later on were pretty impressive.  I remember some very cold temps during the Winter Games and can recall gatherings to skate and play hockey on the pond of a family friend while the Miracle was unfolding.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Tenman likes to drop his load in the CC forum, just paying it forward here. His forecast will not verify, he is a irrational snow lover and CC denier.

You need to just slither away. I believe your theory is 90% extinction form GW, right? Talk about a load. I believe you dropped that load earlier this summer.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The 2009 October snow was mainly in north-central PA. It was pretty early in the month iirc. I know it snowed for the Penn St game

[RedSky]

I didn't remember that and I checked the climate site

doesn't seem to be anything in late October, 2009 at either BWI or IAD that fits what you're describing

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx

HighStakes likely means October 2008, when an area of snow and sleet moved through MD and SEPA on Oct 29th. Have my snow coated pumpkin pictures from that one

[Bob Chill]

You need to just slither away. I believe your theory is 90% extinction form GW, right? Talk about a load. I believe you dropped that load earlier this summer.

If tenman's forecast verifies (which I hope it does) it will be tied to AGW.

[snowfan]

The 2009 October snow was mainly in north-central PA. It was pretty early in the month iirc. I know it snowed for the Penn St game

correct. It was the weekend of the home game vs Minnesota. There were some double digit reports on the ridge tops in and around State College.

[snowfan]

I have no recollection of that event here.

Yeah, you wouldn't. I should've clarified.....it was a central PA event.

[wxdude64]

HighStakes likely means October 2008, when an area of snow and sleet moved through MD and SEPA on Oct 29th. Have my snow coated pumpkin pictures from that one

Yep, just checked, I recorded a T on 10-29-08

[wxdude64]

If tenman's forecast verifies (which I hope it does) it will be tied to AGW.

Let's be realistic, ANY verified forecast SOMEHOW gets tied to it anymore.

[mitchnick]

fyi, Millwx, who posted in the winter thread, is the one and only Gary Gray.....no kidding

he confirmed in the NE thread

think about it.....Millwx......Millenium Weather!

[RedSky]

fyi, Millwx, who posted in the winter thread, is the one and only Gary Gray.....no kidding

he confirmed in the NE thread

think about it.....Millwx......Millenium Weather!

Nice I was a big fan following his winter forecast discussions and missed it when he retired, great to see him posting on the board!

[Huffwx]

This is slightly OT but-

Y'all can call it anything you want, but when you run 40-50% above average snowfall for the winter at the airports with close to average temps in Jan and -4+ in Feb and a -2+ departure for Mar I call it a win. Yes Nov and Dec were warm and dry, but after 1st of year it was pretty good, certainly not a bust.

LYN

Oct -1.1, zero

Nov +3.2, zero

Dec +3.0, trace

Jan +0.8, 14.2, 9.2 1-4/5, 5.0 1-30/31

Feb -4.6, 7.5, 1.6 2-6, 2.9 2-9/10, 3.0 2-25

Mar -2.1, 8.9, 7.7 3-1/2, 1.2 3-13

ROA

Oct -3.1, 0.3, 0.3 10-10

Nov +1.5, trace

Dec +1.9, 0.2, 0.2 12-21

Jan +0.8, 14.3, 8.7 1-4/5, 5.6 1-30/31

Feb -5.6, 4.2, 1.8 2-6, 2.4 2-10

Mar -3.8, 12.0 9.3 3-1/2, 2.7 3-13/14

Just for fun-

DCA

Oct -1.0, zero (M on 10-10)

Nov +4.8, zero

Dec +4.0, trace

Jan +1.2, 8.6, 6.9 1-4/5, 1.7 1-31

Feb -2.9, 5.1, 0.3 2-6, 2.6 2-9/10, 2.2 2-28

Mar -0.6, 6.1, 4.9 3-1/2, 1.2 3-13/14

DULLES

Oct -1.5, zero (M on 10-10)

Nov +3.2, zero

Dec +3.5, 0.2, 0.2 12-20

Jan -0.5, 9.9, 8.2 1-4/5, 0.3 1-25, 1.4 1-31

Feb -5.2, 5.6, 0.7 2-6, 2.0 2-9, 2.9 2-28

Mar -2.3, 9.8, 6.4 3-1/2, 3.4 3-13/14

This is slightly OT but-

Y'all can call it anything you want, but when you run 40-50% above average snowfall for the winter at the airports with close to average temps in Jan and -4+ in Feb and a -2+ departure for Mar I call it a win. Yes Nov and Dec were warm and dry, but after 1st of year it was pretty good, certainly not a bust.

LYN

Oct -1.1, zero

Nov +3.2, zero

Dec +3.0, trace

Jan +0.8, 14.2, 9.2 1-4/5, 5.0 1-30/31

Feb -4.6, 7.5, 1.6 2-6, 2.9 2-9/10, 3.0 2-25

Mar -2.1, 8.9, 7.7 3-1/2, 1.2 3-13

ROA

Oct -3.1, 0.3, 0.3 10-10

Nov +1.5, trace

Dec +1.9, 0.2, 0.2 12-21

Jan +0.8, 14.3, 8.7 1-4/5, 5.6 1-30/31

Feb -5.6, 4.2, 1.8 2-6, 2.4 2-10

Mar -3.8, 12.0 9.3 3-1/2, 2.7 3-13/14

Just for fun-

DCA

Oct -1.0, zero (M on 10-10)

Nov +4.8, zero

Dec +4.0, trace

Jan +1.2, 8.6, 6.9 1-4/5, 1.7 1-31

Feb -2.9, 5.1, 0.3 2-6, 2.6 2-9/10, 2.2 2-28

Mar -0.6, 6.1, 4.9 3-1/2, 1.2 3-13/14

DULLES

Oct -1.5, zero (M on 10-10)

Nov +3.2, zero

Dec +3.5, 0.2, 0.2 12-20

Jan -0.5, 9.9, 8.2 1-4/5, 0.3 1-25, 1.4 1-31

Feb -5.2, 5.6, 0.7 2-6, 2.0 2-9, 2.9 2-28

Mar -2.3, 9.8, 6.4 3-1/2, 3.4 3-13/14

I was agreeing with you. I think that both Richmond and norfolk had higher totals and than Lynchburg that year

[HighStakes]

I didn't remember that and I checked the climate site

doesn't seem to be anything in late October, 2009 at either BWI or IAD that fits what you're describing

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx

I may be off on this one, however it looks like there was a pretty wet system a little earlier in the month from the 16th-18th and it was accompanied by well below average temps. That maybe the storm I am thinking of but if it's not then most likely it was the event that RedSky mentioned a year earlier.

[WinterWxLuvr]

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/2009/10_16/

[mattie g]

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/2009/10_16/

It was an early-season coastal. I remember it well because my buddy was getting married in Connecticutthat weekend. We took off from BWI on Friday in cold, wet, and windy conditions, and landed in Hartford to some rain and wet snowflakes. Luckily, that Saturday was dry up there (though chilly), but the flight back on Sunday was bumpy as all get out. Nasty storm.

[Sparky]

I may be off on this one, however it looks like there was a pretty wet system a little earlier in the month from the 16th-18th and it was accompanied by well below average temps. That maybe the storm I am thinking of but if it's not then most likely it was the event that RedSky mentioned a year earlier.

My notes say rain changed to snow around 3-4am on 10/18/09 accumulated a quarter inch.

[WEATHER53]

ya think?

more like the player

Yes. That is good for us.

[WEATHER53]

I didn't remember that and I checked the climate site

doesn't seem to be anything in late October, 2009 at either BWI or IAD that fits what you're describing

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx

I do not recall such an event either.

[StudentOfClimatology]

My outlook:

Have some doubts about December blocking for a lot of reasons, but thinking weak PV & N-PAC-sourced cyclonic breakers under a favorable QBO/ENSO will give us a SSW around New Years, and blocking for January and possibly February as well.

December, +1, dominated by Pacific vorticity?

January -3, possible SSW, will it be an effective propagator?

February: -1, mixed signals?

Snowfall, 13-23" around I95 corridor.

Overall, thinking a slightly colder than average winter, with blocking kicking into high gear in January.

[Deck Pic]

My outlook:

Have some doubts about December blocking for a lot of reasons, but thinking weak PV & N-PAC-sourced cyclonic breakers will give us a SSW around New Years, and blocking for January and possibly February as well.

December, +1, dominated by Pacific vorticity?

January -3, possible SSW, will it be an effective propagator?

February: -1, mixed signals?

Snowfall, 13-23" around I95 corridor.

Overall, thinking a slightly colder than average winter, with blocking kicking into high gear in January.

 sounds reasonable...last winter makes me nervous (in a good way),, that we are on a heater and will outperform the pattern in terms of snow...completely unscientific

[StudentOfClimatology]

Main method I used was statistical analysis w/ AO/NAO in relation to weak-mod El Niños & QBO phase progression.

Generally -AO/-NAO winters overall with proper QBO/shear stage timing, but December is all over the place, and often runs warm in solar max years (possibly strat-ozone related). Also SSW propagation is a question, especially in solar max , so hoping for quiet sun.

[StudentOfClimatology]

sounds reasonable...last winter makes me nervous (in a good way),, that we are on a heater and will outperform the pattern in terms of snow...completely unscientific

I'm hoping you're right about that, lol. My main worries are that December torches, and/or the SSW event does not effectively propagate.

Though I have a gut feeling we score big in a 3-5 week window from early/mid Jan to early/mid Feb...not sure why.

[nflwxman]

My outlook:

Have some doubts about December blocking for a lot of reasons, but thinking weak PV & N-PAC-sourced cyclonic breakers under a favorable QBO/ENSO will give us a SSW around New Years, and blocking for January and possibly February as well.

December, +1, dominated by Pacific vorticity?

January -3, possible SSW, will it be an effective propagator?

February: -1, mixed signals?

Snowfall, 13-23" around I95 corridor.

Overall, thinking a slightly colder than average winter, with blocking kicking into high gear in January.

Good forecast.  I might hedge a bit cooler in February just given how long patterns have held steady in recent years.  It would be nice to get December snow for a change, but the signals are not in place for it (at least for our December 5th blockbuster).  

[StudentOfClimatology]

Good forecast. I might hedge a bit cooler in February just given how long patterns have held steady in recent years. It would be nice to get December snow for a change, but the signals are not in place for it (at least for our December 5th blockbuster).

Thanks, I hope you're right about February. I'm just a bit worried about the NAO in a -QBO/solar max/weak Niño-type forcing regime.

If we can pull off a moderate Niño I think we'll do better.

[Bob Chill]

Good forecast SoC. December is a big wildcard. I'm fearing the worst for no other reason than history of weak/warm neutral events. 

 

I agree with nfl that Feb is the likely suspect for the coldest relative to average. Again, just going off history. 

 

The last half of Nov is going to either start a high five party or Ji will step in and promptly do what he does best. I suppose it's possible for Dec to be a tale of 2 patterns as well but until we get closer I really don't have much to say. 

[Deck Pic]

we should know more about December over the next 6-8 weeks....most bad Nino/Neutral decembers had an aleutian high....that is probably a killer for us in terms of temps...in terms of snow, we could always get a fluke

[hosj III]

Not really much I can add to this discussion, but my 2 cents is that the "no back-to-back blockbuster winters" rule isn't going to be as much of a problem this winter because last winter was not a typical blockbuster pattern. We didn't "use up" a textbook mod nino/-NAO pattern.

 

Also, the CFS has actually gotten more bullish with the nino in recent runs:

 

Compare:

[AlaskaETC]

Not really much I can add to this discussion, but my 2 cents is that the "no back-to-back blockbuster winters" rule isn't going to be as much of a problem this winter because last winter was not a typical blockbuster pattern. We didn't "use up" a textbook mod nino/-NAO pattern.

 

Also, the CFS has actually gotten more bullish with the nino in recent runs:

 

Compare:

I agree.

[WEATHER53]

I still believe that we are in a realm that none of us have experinced via internet weather discussions. There were plenty of back to back in times gone by.

I am going to post another party's outlook in a new thread here early Monday morning.

Have HM or Isotherm generated any ideas yet?