My Winter Outlook

[WEATHER53]

SofC,

1) Not all were caught off guard. 18 of the 27 were pretty to very close, including your 4.51-4.80.

2) He also said this about 2015: "Next year will be the big one, in terms of a sub-3.0km min extent."

The point is that he swings for the fences, not unlike JB. That can't be good for credibility until if/when his predictions verify well.If they do, I would not hesitate to congratulate him. Regardless, his 2014 ice prediction was not close.

He will also not be around to do an honest post predicition assessment but rather on to the next gloom and doom scenario instead. Mr Zwyts, myself, KA and a few other posters in other forums make our predictions and then assess them post event.  That is whom you want to listen to.

Also, I would request that the moderators encourage this retun of this  thread to the title topic.

[hosj III]

Well I just read an "excess wamrth...excess cold...it's all global warming caused" which I would puke on and then delete if I could.

 

1997-98 was close to being a good year. We had excellent tracks for low pressure many times but there was just no cold air.  As someone said, a 0.8 nino is not the same as a 2.0+.

I strongly believe the vortex will dislodge again and with a solid nino this is going to be one for the ages.

 

A year with a mega GOA vortex was close to being a good year? 

 

Position of a Nino really matters more than the strength. 2009-2010 was almost a strong nino but was west-based. 1997-1998 was basin-wide/east-based.

[GaWx]

A year with a mega GOA vortex was close to being a good year?

Position of a Nino really matters more than the strength. 2009-2010 was almost a strong nino but was west-based. 1997-1998 was basin-wide/east-based.

East based can be very cold as 1976-7 and 1969-70 demonstrate. Note that I'm talking about cold, not snow. Weak east based El Niño with +PDO and -NAO both dominating can still be very cold in the E US. But, yes, 2009-10 was west based and quite cold for a strong Niño.

[hosj III]

I'm still learning this stuff, so excuse this noobish question: 

What are we looking for in the QBO? I know a negative phase is good, but I have also heard that if it is too negative before winter it slows down october snow growth and leads to torchy winters. 

[EasternUSWX]

October snow is the death-knell for winter.

 

October snows = winter blows.

 

Except 2009-2010

[EastCoast NPZ]

Except 2009-2010

 

and when / where did it snow in Oct 2009?  It sure didn't here.

[Huffwx]

I disagree, had 35.3 here that winter (79-80), above my 26.5 average, many CO-ops and airports (ROA, LYN, LEW) in the 30+ range too and above average.

OCT- 6.0

NOV- T

DEC- T

JAN- 13.3

FEB- 5.5

MAR- 10.5

APR- T

TOT- 35.3

. That was a suppressed winter..

[Isotherm]

Tenman -

 

Good luck with the forecast. I for one hope you verify, except with a greater amount of snowfall of course. I can't say much in terms of agreement / disagreement at this point, except to provide my opinion on ENSO status and a couple other factors. I will have my winter outlook out in November.

 

Also, it's a shame that this thread was hijacked. A significant portion of it really should be moved, IMO, to the climate forum, as it has little relevance to the ensuing winter discussion.

[AvantHiatus]

Tenman -

 

Good luck with the forecast. I for one hope you verify, except with a greater amount of snowfall of course. I can't say much in terms of agreement / disagreement at this point, except to provide my opinion on ENSO status and a couple other factors. I will have my winter outlook out in November.

 

Also, it's a shame that this thread was hijacked. A significant portion of it really should be moved, IMO, to the climate forum, as it has little relevance to the ensuing winter discussion.

Tenman likes to drop his load in the CC forum, just paying it forward here. His forecast will not verify, he is a irrational snow lover and CC denier.

[AlaskaETC]

Tenman likes to drop his load in the CC forum, just paying it forward here. His forecast will not verify, he is a irrational snow lover and CC denier.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Tenman likes to drop his load in the CC forum, just paying it forward here. His forecast will not verify, he is a irrational snow lover and CC denier.

What's your forecast, then? At least provide something to substantiate your claims instead of pulling the thread OT again.

[T. August]

Tenman, I like your outlook. -5 departure in Jan. would be great. Would like a bit more snow, though.

[AvantHiatus]

What's your forecast, then? At least provide something to substantiate your claims instead of pulling the thread OT again.

• + 1-2.0 ONI
• + Adjustment for AGW (+1 ONI = 97/98 profile coupled with factors listed below)
• + PNA will likely average negative with associated GOA vortex
• - -EPO could overwhelm the pattern like last year
• + Back-to-back snowy winters are very uncommon
• + PDO will average positive this autumn, unlike last year
• + WATL is anomalously potent = routine invasion by the bermuda high
• - Snowcover could rapidily build-up and offset the warming caused by ENSO and amplify the effects of a -EPO

All + factors support a warm, less snowy winter and vice versa

[Isotherm]

Tenman likes to drop his load in the CC forum, just paying it forward here. His forecast will not verify, he is a irrational snow lover and CC denier.

 

 

So because he chooses to express his climate change opinion in a public forum that is designed precisely for that purpose, that grants you the right to derail a thread designed for the purpose of his winter forecast? The truth is that you don't like his opinion on climate, and therefore, feel the need to vent your disagreement in his thread.

[StudentOfClimatology]

• + 1-2.0 ONI
• + Adjustment for AGW (+1 ONI = 97/98 profile coupled with factors listed below)
• + PNA will likely average negative with associated GOA vortex
• - -EPO could overwhelm the pattern like last year
• + Back-to-back snowy winters are very uncommon
• + PDO will average positive this autumn, unlike last year
• + WATL is anomalously potent = routine invasion by the bermuda high
• - Snowcover could rapidily build-up and offset the warming caused by ENSO and amplify the effects of a -EPO

All + factors support a warm, less snowy winter and vice versa</p>

Some of these statements are confusing to me.

1) What do you mean "AGW adjustment means a 1C ONI = a 1998 profile"? The 2009-10 Niño peaked at 1.6C and did not behave like 1998.

2) Did you mean to say +PNA? A GOA/Aleutian Low isn't really a -PNA, and -PNA Niños are also quite rare. Last winter was primarily a -PNA, with the high heights off the west coast. A +PNA consists of an Aleutian Low.

3) How does a +PDO argue for a warmer winter? I'd think the opposite.

4) What do you mean when you say the "west Atlantic is anomalously potent"? The Bermuda high has been weaker than average this year. Why should it strengthen?

[AvantHiatus]

Some of these statements are confusing to me.

1) What do you mean "AGW adjustment means a 1C ONI = a 1998 profile"? The 2009-10 Niño peaked at 1.6C and did not behave like 1998.

2) Did you mean to say +PNA? A GOA/Aleutian Low isn't really a -PNA, and -PNA Niños are also quite rare. Last winter was primarily a -PNA, with the high heights off the west coast. A +PNA consists of an Aleutian Low.

3) How does a +PDO argue for a warmer winter? I'd think the opposite.

4) What do you mean when you say the "west Atlantic is anomalously potent"? The Bermuda high has been weaker than average this year. Why should it strengthen?

Heading into winter, the strong gradient between high SSTA and continental airmasses will create a massive blocking ridge in the Pacific and Atlantic.

 

The pattern is due for a flip, and the el nino looks mostly east-based. This is why 97-98 is a key analog here. Perhaps the ONI adjustment is closer to 1.5, either way GHG and OHC forcing has advanced somewhat since 2009. I will reference back to my belief that OHC will play a big role this winter and beyond...

 

Mostly cold/dry and warm/wet, especially for I-95 east this winter. Everywhere else is a crapshoot. Also, the OHC forcing only appears when the PDO is positive. This is a key reason, in my mind why u should not expect a carbon copy of 2013.

 

Yes, Winter 2013's PDO was slightly positive, however it was negative during the summer/fall peak insolation.

 

The transition is completely different. I don't know exactly how it will turn out but it's not going to be like 2013, which most likely means warmer and less snowy. Would be challenging to beat a year like 2013 in the snow and cold department, depending on where you live.

 

[AlaskaETC]

East based Nino? Looks like it will be more centrally-based.

[Bob Chill]

East based Nino? Looks like it will be more centrally-based.

It's central and anomalies are slowly shifting west. There is no resemblance of 97-98 in the pac basin.

[AvantHiatus]

It's central and anomalies are slowly shifting west. There is no resemblance of 97-98 in the pac basin.

 

I could definitely see things shifting west, as for now it appears it could go either way. That warm pool in the GOA is probably going to be a big player.

[Bob Chill]

[AvantHiatus]

One thing I would like to add, the West Pac has been warm for some time now, due to the continuous -PDO. All of the heat was being forced west by the anomalous trades. Now we have a unprecedented setup where the whole Pacific is warm.

 

We are going to smash through 2009-2010 for warmest year on record. It's like a pseudo fake West-based el nino, almost semi-permanent.

 

You should not use 50km resolution SSTA maps. Overall it's a poor comparison and the Arctic was not warm that year, the uniform regions are ice-cover.

[mitchnick]

I could definitely see things shifting west, as for now it appears it could go either way. That warm pool in the GOA is probably going to be a big player.

ya think?

more like the player

[AvantHiatus]

ya think?

more like the player

Also the West Atlantic, a battle of the oceans. It will be insane if we ever get a coastal to ride over that stuff and we manage to find cold air at the same time.

[wxdude64]

. That was a suppressed winter..

This is slightly OT but-

Y'all can call it anything you want, but when you run 40-50% above average snowfall for the winter at the airports with close to average temps in Jan and -4+ in Feb and a -2+ departure for Mar I call it a win. Yes Nov and Dec were warm and dry, but after 1st of year it was pretty good, certainly not a bust.

LYN

Oct -1.1, zero

Nov +3.2, zero

Dec +3.0, trace

Jan  +0.8, 14.2, 9.2 1-4/5, 5.0 1-30/31

Feb -4.6, 7.5, 1.6 2-6, 2.9 2-9/10, 3.0 2-25

Mar -2.1, 8.9, 7.7 3-1/2, 1.2 3-13

ROA

Oct -3.1, 0.3, 0.3 10-10

Nov +1.5, trace

Dec +1.9, 0.2, 0.2 12-21

Jan +0.8, 14.3, 8.7 1-4/5, 5.6 1-30/31

Feb -5.6, 4.2, 1.8 2-6, 2.4 2-10

Mar -3.8, 12.0 9.3 3-1/2, 2.7 3-13/14

Just for fun-

DCA

Oct -1.0, zero (M on 10-10)

Nov +4.8, zero

Dec +4.0, trace

Jan +1.2, 8.6, 6.9 1-4/5, 1.7 1-31

Feb -2.9, 5.1, 0.3 2-6, 2.6 2-9/10, 2.2 2-28

Mar -0.6, 6.1, 4.9 3-1/2, 1.2 3-13/14

DULLES

Oct -1.5, zero (M on 10-10)

Nov +3.2, zero

Dec +3.5, 0.2, 0.2 12-20

Jan -0.5, 9.9, 8.2 1-4/5, 0.3 1-25, 1.4 1-31

Feb -5.2, 5.6, 0.7 2-6, 2.0 2-9, 2.9 2-28

Mar -2.3, 9.8, 6.4 3-1/2, 3.4 3-13/14

[HighStakes]

and when / where did it snow in Oct 2009?  It sure didn't here.

There was a rather powerful system in late October 2009 that produced some sleet and wet snow. I believe it was the last weekend in October. Some parts of Maryland received enough wet snow to cover the ground overnight Sat. into Sun morning. I only had some sleet pellets and wet flakes mix in with the rain up here but strangely enough some areas south of here had an 1 or 2 of snow that of course quickly melted.

[snowfan]

October 2002 was another early snowfall event. Bowling ball moved across central PA dropping a few inches. Was a fun system.

[mitchnick]

There was a rather powerful system in late October 2009 that produced some sleet and wet snow. I believe it was the last weekend in October. Some parts of Maryland received enough wet snow to cover the ground overnight Sat. into Sun morning. I only had some sleet pellets and wet flakes mix in with the rain up here but strangely enough some areas south of here had an 1 or 2 of snow that of course quickly melted.

I didn't remember that and I checked the climate site

doesn't seem to be anything in late October, 2009 at either BWI or IAD that fits what you're describing

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx

[midatlanticweather]

I like the signals... and agree on the Central west base Nino -

 

My thinking, which adds no real scientific info - I think this winter has some interesting features that will make it more unique than other winters! I am adding nothing to this conversation but I do believe that this will be a winter of a few blockbusters verses several moderate events. Kind of felt that way most the summer - very wet spells followed by long dry spells (not that winter is anything like summer) With that in mind I am gonna go with a similar snow total Northern VA and MD that happened last year and also think we see above normal down into the I-95 corridor this year into NC.. Mountains are gonna do very very well.

[hosj III]

I like the signals... and agree on the Central west base Nino -

 

My thinking, which adds no real scientific info - I think this winter has some interesting features that will make it more unique than other winters! I am adding nothing to this conversation but I do believe that this will be a winter of a few blockbusters verses several moderate events. Kind of felt that way most the summer - very wet spells followed by long dry spells (not that winter is anything like summer) With that in mind I am gonna go with a similar snow total Northern VA and MD that happened last year and also think we see above normal down into the I-95 corridor this year into NC.. Mountains are gonna do very very well.

If I get 250% climo for two winters in a row then I'm calling ice age.

[EastCoast NPZ]

October 2002 was another early snowfall event. Bowling ball moved across central PA dropping a few inches. Was a fun system.

I have no recollection of that event here.