My Winter Outlook

[StudentOfClimatology]

We need all the chips on the table now to see 850mb temps below freezing. You should take into account the -PNA especially when 500mb heights over the Western Atlantic are gaining momentum with a deep oceanic warm pool. I think this winter will be a constant battle between the NPAC Ridge and Bermuda High in regards to our sensible weather locally.

We were frigid last winter despite the -PNA and +NAO...850mb temps actually average close to/below 0C here in January...not sure what you're getting at?

Oscillating between extreme cold and heat on a bi-weekly basis. Note how you can see the Aleutians/GOA trough dipping down. The end result is progressiveness, this is more or less 2013 without the "luck" factor and insane Midwest PV from the historic 2013 summer melt season.

This is the pattern you want to see this time of year. Read the 2014-15 winter disco thread. Aleutian low correlates strongly to DJF -NAO and rapid snowcover build-up in Siberia.

Great post from Zwyts:

Look at the difference in the NPAC in October in strong -NAO DJF ninos vs +NAO DJF ninos....stark.....seeing a neg height anomaly in the NPAC in Oct is pretty important for winter blocking....I want to see it even if it is in the GOA

posnaooct.png

bleh.png

negnaooct.png

yes.png

DJF is likely to be the warmest on record, assuming the el nino gains momentum. As with 2010, this does not guarantee a blowtorch but what if the chips don't line up, you can see where we could be going. It would be a 1997/1998 type regime. We have not observed a +PDO torch in a long time, people forgot about it.

This is CC-forum stuff. I assume you're referring to the global temperature? Even there, pretty much zero chance for a record on UAH and RSS. Surface datasets will be losing heat from Oct-Dec as the high latitude SST anoms decay with the seasonal shift in the Hadley Cells.

So I'd consider that unlikely, too.

[StudentOfClimatology]

You need to adjust for ONI, we don't need a +2.2 event to exceed 2010 now, in terms of global temperatures.

Why? CO^2 forcing is only 0.071W/m^2 greater now than it was in 2010. You can't even detect that in global temperatures.

CO^2 forcing is a decadal -scale governor.

[AvantHiatus]

See you in March. We were cold because the PV dropped down into the conus. It was unreal, this is what the polar vortex stuff is all about. Meanwhile, the Arctic was roasting away and Siberia was torching hard.

 

CC is about to leave the station my friend.

 

 

 

During the last winter, the high Arctic winter temperatures and pressures have displaced the normal freezing Arctic Air south into Canada and the United States producing never before seen, freezing winter storms and massive power failures. When the Arctic ice cap finally melts towards the end of next year, the Arctic sea will be aggressively heated by the sun and the Gulf Stream. The cold Arctic air will then be confined to the Greenland Ice cap and the hot globally warmed Arctic air with its methane will flow south to the United States to further heat up the Gulf Stream, setting up an anticlockwise circulation around Greenland. Under these circumstances Great Britain and Europe must expect even more catastrophic storm systems, hurricane force winds and massive flooding after the end of next year due to a further acceleration in the energy transport of the Gulf Stream. If this process continues unchecked the mean temperature of the atmosphere will rise a further 8° centigrade and we will be facing global deglaciation, a more than 200 feet rise in sea level rise and a major terminal extinction event by the 2050's.

[StudentOfClimatology]

That belongs in the CC-forum, my friend.

[AvantHiatus]

Why? CO^2 forcing is only 0.071W/m^2 greater now than it was in 2010. You can't even detect that in global temperatures.

CO^2 forcing is a decadal -scale governor.

This is not due to CO2, it's because we flipped to a +PDO and the Ocean Heat Content is being released back into the atmosphere.

 

Slight blip in Methane is not helping.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Ocean Heat Content is being released back into the atmosphere.

Not really. The oceanic subsurface is significantly colder than the SSTs...if those deeper waters were surfacing, then SSTs would be colder.

The reason the NPAC SSTs are so warm is due to reduced vertical mixing and increased insolation under the ridging that's dominated there for almost 2 years.

[GaWx]

We need all the chips on the table now to see 850mb temps below freezing. You should take into account the -PNA especially when 500mb heights over the Western Atlantic are gaining momentum with a deep oceanic warm pool. I think this winter will be a constant battle between the NPAC Ridge and Bermuda High in regards to our sensible weather locally.

 

Oscillating between extreme cold and heat on a bi-weekly basis. Note how you can see the Aleutians/GOA trough dipping down. The end result is progressiveness, this is more or less 2013 without the "luck" factor and insane Midwest PV from the historic 2013 summer melt season.

 

DJF is likely to be the warmest on record, assuming the el nino gains momentum. As with 2010, this does not guarantee a blowtorch but what if the chips don't line up, you can see where we could be going. It would be a 1997/1998 type regime. We have not observed a +PDO torch in a long time, people forgot about it.

 

Weatherguy,

 Your credibility is not being helped with the hyperbole regarding warmth this winter and global warming in general. You sound like the alarmist of alarmists! Just to remind you and to tell the others reading this thread, this guy predicted the lowest level of JAXA Arctic ice extent of 27 predictors: 3.61-3.90 mil km2! The highest picked was 5.11-5.40. It ended up near 4.90. He was way off/last place. Even "The_Global_Warmer" predicted only down to 4.21-4.50. This guy also made these comments: "Expecting a year that trails behind 2012 due to a pattern shift in late July. Next year will be the big one, in terms of a sub-3.0km min extent." This guy can't be taken seriously imo when it comes to warmth being predicted due to a strong bias. He sounds like the anti-JB:

 

 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43787-final-2014-sea-ice-min-prediction-thread/page-?mode=show

[AvantHiatus]

Weatherguy,

 Your credibility is not being helped with the hyperbole regarding warmth this winter and global warming in general. You sound like the alarmist of alarmists! Just to remind you and to tell the others reading this thread, this guy predicted the lowest level of JAXA Arctic ice extent of 27 predictors: 3.61-3.90 mil km2! The highest picked was 5.11-5.40. It ended up near 4.90. He was way off/last place. Even "The_Global_Warmer" predicted only down to 4.21-4.50. This guy also made these comments: "Expecting a year that trails behind 2012 due to a pattern shift in late July. Next year will be the big one, in terms of a sub-3.0km min extent." This guy can't be taken seriously imo when it comes to warmth being predicted due to a strong bias. He sounds like the anti-JB:

 

 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43787-final-2014-sea-ice-min-prediction-thread/page-?mode=show

Set aside the personal factor for a bit. At least I did not change my vote to hide the truth. Next year, meaning 2015 and I still think the melt season next year will be nasty. I don't appreciate stuff being posted out of context.

 

This is unrelated to the discussion here. You should always look at the evidence rather than the person.

 

Again, let's meet again in March to see who has more credibility. The pattern shift did materialize in late July however the extraordinary May-June progression saved the ice. Some weird cloud feedbacks up there buddy.

[GaWx]

Set aside the personal factor for a bit. At least I did not change my vote to hide the truth. Next year, meaning 2015 and I still think the melt season next year will be nasty.

 

This is unrelated to the discussion here. You should always look at the evidence rather than the person.

 

It is definitely related since you keep bringing up global warming and you are sounding like an AGW alarmist even in here. How can you be taken as being objective?

[AvantHiatus]

It is definitely related since you keep bringing up global warming and you are sounding like an AGW alarmist even in here.

Everyone keeps using analogs from the 30's and stuff. It needs to stop because it's not really relevant anymore. Trying to wake people up and show them that these forecasts for "1899 redux" are not legit.

 

It's preferable to retain a more realistic picture, rather than be surprised and disappointed. Also, some of these posts are products of non-logical snow-lovers.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Just to remind you and to tell the others reading this thread, this guy predicted the lowest level of JAXA Arctic ice extent of 27 predictors: 3.61-3.90 mil km2! The highest picked was 5.11-5.40. It ended up near 4.90. He was way off/last place.

GaWx, I also busted with my sea ice prediction. The entire forum was caught off guard. So I doubt this is of significant relevance.

Next year, meaning 2015 and I still think the melt season next year will be nasty.

What's your mechanistic reasoning? Personally I think it's very risky to make a projection like that because the upcoming winter-circulation will determine the location/health of the MYI and the strength of the Beaufort Gyre. If we see another favorable winter (-AO, strong Beaufort Gyre), then the ice will probably be quite strong.

[GaWx]

Everyone keeps using analogs from the 30's and stuff. It needs to stop because it's not really relevant anymore. Trying to wake people up and show them that these forecasts for "1899 redux" are not legit.

It's preferable to retain a more realistic picture, rather than be surprised and disappointed.

The globe is only about 1 C or 2 F warmer than the period of the coldest years in the late 1800's, correct?. So, in theory, instead of a month being, say, 10 F below normal, it is quite conceivable that it would still be something like 8 F below normal with a similar atmospheric setup, i.e., still very cold! Agree? Also, look at how cold Chicago was last DJFM: coldest on record if I'm not mistaken!

[StudentOfClimatology]

The globe is only about 1 C or /2 F warmer than the period of the coldest years in the late 1800's, correct?. So, in theory, instead of a month being, say, 10 F below normal, it is quite conceivable that it would still be something like 8 F below normal with a similar atmospheric setup, i.e., still very cold! Agree? Also, look at how cold Chicago was last DJFM winter: coldest on record if I'm not mistaken!

I don't understand what he's getting at, either.

That said, the older analogs are still dangerous to use for a slew reasons unrelated to global temperature. The failure rate there shoots up pretty high.

[GaWx]

GaWx, I also busted with my sea ice prediction. The entire forum was caught off guard. So I doubt this is of significant relevance.

SofC,

1) Not all were caught off guard. 18 of the 27 were pretty to very close, including your 4.51-4.80.

2) He also said this about 2015: "Next year will be the big one, in terms of a sub-3.0km min extent."

The point is that he swings for the fences, not unlike JB. That can't be good for credibility until if/when his predictions verify well.If they do, I would not hesitate to congratulate him. Regardless, his 2014 ice prediction was not close.

[AvantHiatus]

I don't understand what he's getting at, either.

That said, the older analogs are still dangerous to use for a slew reasons unrelated to global temperature. The failure rate there shoots up pretty high.

^ GaWx

 

It's more or less not that it is warmer, rather it is slight temperature changes shifting where the 500mb wavelengths setup. Hopefully SoC can elaborate on how sensitive things are, as he has done before in great and rich detail. 

 

We are also on the precipice of true AGW, in others words about to experience more direct impacts. As James Hansen said, "Global Warming is being masked by the great inertia of the climate system and global ocean".

 

By 2030, DC snowstorms will be a thing of the past as we know them. Enjoy it while you can.

 

Based on paleoclimate, things were not dramatically different when CO2 was below 400 ppm and just passed this benchmark last year. The system requires time to respond.

[GaWx]

^ GaWx

 

It's more or less not that it is warmer, rather it is slight temperature changes shifting where the 500mb wavelengths setup. Hopefully SoC can elaborate on how sensitive things are, as he has done before in great and rich detail. 

 

We are also on the precipice of true AGW, in others words about to experience more direct impacts. As James Hansen said, "Global Warming is being masked by the great inertia of the climate system and global ocean".

 

By 2030, DC snowstorms will be a thing of the past as we know them. Enjoy it while you can.

 

Based on paleoclimate, things were not dramatically different when CO2 was below 400 ppm and just passed this benchmark last year. The system requires time to respond.

 

But Chicago just had their coldest winter on record!

[AvantHiatus]

But Chicago just had their coldest winter on record!

[StudentOfClimatology]

^ GaWx

It's more or less not that it is warmer, rather it is slight temperature changes shifting where the 500mb wavelengths setup. Hopefully SoC can elaborate on how sensitive things are, as he has done before in great and rich detail.

We are also on the precipice of true AGW, in others words about to experience more direct impacts. As James Hansen said, "Global Warming is being masked by the great inertia of the climate system and global ocean".

By 2030, DC snowstorms will be a thing of the past as we know them. Enjoy it while you can.

Based on paleoclimate, things were not dramatically different when CO2 was below 400 ppm and just passed this benchmark last year. The system requires time to respond.

The problem is we don't know how the meridional circulations will shift as the planet warms...too many spatiotemporal feedbacks. At least that's what I'm getting out of the latest literature. But it'd take a very heavy warming to affect DC snowfall like that.

For what it's worth, the paleoclimatological data suggests the Rossby wave train will amplify overall with the weakening equator-to-pole gradient, which would fall in line with most interpretations w/ the thermal wind laws i/r to the polar jet.

[AvantHiatus]

The problem is we don't know how the meridional circulations will shift as the planet warms...too many spatiotemporal feedbacks. At least that's what I'm getting out of the latest literature. But it'd take a very heavy warming to affect DC snowfall like that.

For what it's worth, the paleoclimatological data suggests the Rossby wave train will amplify overall with the weakening equator-to-pole gradient, which would fall in line with most interpretations w/ the thermal wind laws i/r to the polar jet.

Possibly, however look at how close DC is to falling into a climate zone similar to the Coastal Carolinas. Some annual winter snowfalls are below 10", and this was before AGW became a big influence. AGW is now temporarily boosting snowfall in a few sporadic years (09-10) due to the increased prevalence of extreme blocking events.

[StudentOfClimatology]

There are also problems of timescale...how we perceive time is not how the climate system perceives time.

Obliquity has declined significantly over the last 11,000yrs, which has changed the distribution of global insolation significantly. This ended the Holocene climate optimum 3,000yrs ago, and it occurred very abruptly. There are questions as to whether this inertia is still with us, and whether or not we see another shift in the global cells, possibly either exacerbated or mediated by AGW.

Polar isolation is falling while equatorial insolation is increasing. This growing "insolation gradient" will, in the long run, bring us back into an ice age circulation. If the climate can change enough in 100yrs to take DC out of the typical snow-zone, it won't be for long.

[Bob Chill]

Time to take this stuff to climate change subforum. Waaay OT. Let's talk winter of 14-15. Not 29-30.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Time to take this stuff to climate change subforum. Waaay OT. Let's talk winter of 14-15. Not 29-30.

I've been trying to convey this as well.

[T. August]

Time to take this stuff to climate change subforum. Waaay OT. Let's talk winter of 14-15. Not 29-30.

Agreed.

[AvantHiatus]

Fair enough, let's get back to discussing Tenman's -5 January departure.

 

Should be interesting to see if we are dependent on the -NAO this winter. Is there a correlation between Autumn and Winter NAO patterns?

[StudentOfClimatology]

Fair enough, let's get back to discussing Tenman's -5 January departure.

Should be interesting to see if we are dependent on the -NAO this winter. Is there a correlation between Autumn and Winter NAO patterns?

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42356-winter-2014-2015-thread/page-17

Look at the difference in the NPAC in October in strong -NAO DJF ninos vs +NAO DJF ninos....stark.....seeing a neg height anomaly in the NPAC in Oct is pretty important for winter blocking....I want to see it even if it is in the GOA

posnaooct.png

bleh.png

negnaooct.png

yes.png

[Bob Chill]

Fair enough, let's get back to discussing Tenman's -5 January departure.

Should be interesting to see if we are dependent on the -NAO this winter. Is there a correlation between Autumn and Winter NAO patterns?

Yes, there are several things and they have been discussed in the last 2 days in the main winter thread.

One thing I agree with you and others is that analogs from 50+ years ago come with caveats. Especially when using them for extremely localized seasonal snow forecasts.

No 2 patterns/years can be identical for obvious reasons. 93-94 was very similar to last year but it was bad for snow.

Mod nino's have proven to be the ma sweet spot for snow spanning decades. Attm a mod Nino isn't as likely as a weak one. Weak ones have very mixed results the last 60+ years. We could still jump to mod status but it's a late bloomer so that variable would have its own impacts.

04-05 and 06-07 could have been much better than they were here. But they weren't so it is what it is. At the very least, both winters featured a period of a favorable snow pattern. I expect the same this winter from what is happening right now. Capitalizing on a favorable pattern can't really be predicted months or even weeks in advance. Heck, days and hours in advance. Lol

[WEATHER53]

Well I just read an "excess wamrth...excess cold...it's all global warming caused" which I would puke on and then delete if I could.

 

1997-98 was close to being a good year. We had excellent tracks for low pressure many times but there was just no cold air.  As someone said, a 0.8 nino is not the same as a 2.0+.

I strongly believe the vortex will dislodge again and with a solid nino this is going to be one for the ages.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I disagree, had 35.3 here that winter (79-80), above my 26.5 average, many CO-ops and airports (ROA, LYN, LEW) in the 30+ range too and above average.

OCT- 6.0

NOV- T

DEC- T

JAN- 13.3

FEB- 5.5

MAR- 10.5

APR- T

TOT- 35.3

 

It was pretty bad up here.  You did a helluva lot better down there.

[WEATHER53]

It is definitely related since you keep bringing up global warming and you are sounding like an AGW alarmist even in here. How can you be taken as being objective?

He's not. They are not as a bunch. I would suggest we mostly stay on topic as it relates to winter and winter outlooks and not get into the "man has ruined the planet" hyperbole.

[WEATHER53]

The globe is only about 1 C or 2 F warmer than the period of the coldest years in the late 1800's, correct?. So, in theory, instead of a month being, say, 10 F below normal, it is quite conceivable that it would still be something like 8 F below normal with a similar atmospheric setup, i.e., still very cold! Agree? Also, look at how cold Chicago was last DJFM winter: coldest on record if I'm not mistaken!

Hot...cold...wet...dry...snowy...not snowy...lots of hurricanes...no hurricanes-It's ALL global warming.  Crock of Sh*t City.