My Winter Outlook

[Ji]

We are due for a warm snowless winter

[AlaskaETC]

We are due for a warm snowless winter

 

We had plenty of those in the past couple years.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Please post your outlook and if you can along the lines of the format I used. It's good to see who thinks what and why.

Sure thing. Still finalizing it, but should hopefully reach a conclusion within the next 15 days.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1980 had the 10-10-79 storm for western VA up thru Philadelphia too.

 

and the rest of that winter pretty much sucked too.  Oct 2011 doomed the winter of 2011-12  Just say 'NO' to October snow.

[EastCoast NPZ]

In keeping with the idea of an out-of-season event, four of Tenman's analog years had accumulating November snowfalls in this area. Nov 6-7, 1953 is one of the great early season events, along with snows in nov '55, '76, and '81. None of those doomed the winter.

 

Nov snow is a very different beast than October snow.  There was a decent Nov snow in 1995 here, and we know how that turned out. We had a white T-day in 1989 and while that winter sucked for snow, at least we had the epic cold Dec.  The sample set is small, but nothing good has followed an Oct snow in these parts (in my lifetime at least).

[mitchnick]

and the rest of that winter pretty much sucked too.  Oct 2011 doomed the winter of 2011.  Just say 'NO' to October snow.

...and YESSSSS to November snow  (like last year, at least imby)

[hosj III]

Temperatures: Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal 
Snowfall: 125-150% of normal. 

 

My first call. Let's wait until November for monthly anomalies.

[EastCoast NPZ]

...and YESSSSS to November snow  (like last year, at least imby)

 

Absolutely.  Seems that Nov snows usually (with the exception of Vet day 1987) portend good things to come.

[WinterWxLuvr]

This was Tenmans winter outlook thread, not everyone else's.

[CAPE]

This was Tenmans winter outlook thread, not everyone else's.

Read post #6.

[WEATHER53]

Anyone who wants to add their own feel free to do so.  Analog wise what we want to see next is a warm first 1/3 of October and the last 1/3 of October to be absent any east coast crawler storms. In between there is no analog pattern.  The east coast crawlers does not mean a storm that effects FL,GA,SC but rather a nor'easter type from NC to Maine or in between.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Read post #6.

My apologies.

[AvantHiatus]

Monthly Temps

Dec:- 0.5

Jan:-5

Feb:-3

Overall:-2.0 to -3.0

 

DCA: 45" total snowfall

IAD: 60" total snowfall

DC never really has back-to-back ++ snowfall, same for most other places along the East Coast outside the mountains and LES belts.

 

In my mind, this winter is an easy win if you know what you're looking at. It's going to be cold or warm, but definitely snowless, compared to prior years (2009-2010 and 2013-2014). With global temps running record high, i'm leaning to the rainy and warm side.

[Bob Chill]

DC never really has back-to-back ++ snowfall, same for most other places along the East Coast outside the mountains and LES belts.

 

In my mind, this winter is an easy win if you know what you're looking at. It's going to be cold or warm, but definitely snowless, compared to prior years (2009-2010 and 2013-2014). With global temps running record high, i'm leaning to the rainy and warm side.

 

I agree that historically this area doesn't knock down back to back often at all. Especially in the last 25 years. However, last winter should have been crappy. We just got lucky with a very unusual pattern. A pattern not seen in nearly 20 years (93-94). This winter has much more going for it overall. Not saying I think snow and cold door to door is going to come easy. I do however think at least one of the months will be productive. 

 

Not sure I get what you're saying about snowless compared to recent years. We just went through a historic snow drought. During the 3 winter stretch of 10-11 to 12-13 DC recorded a grand total of 15.2". 

 

I see no reason to doubt DC having a solid shot at least 10-15" on the year. 

[AvantHiatus]

I agree that historically this area doesn't knock down back to back often at all. Especially in the last 25 years. However, last winter should have been crappy. We just got lucky with a very unusual pattern. A pattern not seen in nearly 20 years (93-94). This winter has much more going for it overall. Not saying I think snow and cold door to door is going to come easy. I do however think at least one of the months will be productive. 

 

Not sure I get what you're saying about snowless compared to recent years. We just went through a historic snow drought. During the 3 winter stretch of 10-11 to 12-13 DC recorded a grand total of 15.2". 

 

I see no reason to doubt DC having a solid shot at least 10-15" on the year. 

10-11 was snowy here due to the boxing day snowstorm (sorry, lol). That reminds me tho, that would of been a back-to-back snowy winter locally. There are always exceptions and I suppose it would be foolish to rule it out completely in light of global weirding and the immortal -EPO.

 

I think people's expectations are inflated, and no one remembers the bad years. I completely forgot about how bad 2012-2013 was.

 

You automatically accept that background climo can be thrown out if u think DC can have 3 40"+ winters in a decade.

 

It's not a snow-drought because 09-10 was so anomalous, that was like 6 winters of average snow in one year.

[AlaskaETC]

10-11 was snowy here due to the boxing day snowstorm (sorry, lol). That reminds me tho, that would of been a back-to-back snowy winter locally. There are always exceptions and I suppose it would be foolish to rule it out completely in light of global weirding and the immortal -EPO.

 

I think people's expectations are inflated, and no one remembers the bad years. I completely forgot about how bad 2012-2013 was.

 

You automatically accept that background climo can be thrown out if u think DC can have 3 40"+ winters in a decade.

 

It's not a snow-drought because 09-10 was so anomalous, that was like 6 winters of average snow in one year.

 

I'm not a big fan of going off climo alone, too many other factors and unknowns involved.

[Bob Chill]

10-11 was snowy here due to the boxing day snowstorm (sorry, lol). That reminds me tho, that would of been a back-to-back snowy winter locally. There are always exceptions and I suppose it would be foolish to rule it out completely in light of global weirding and the immortal -EPO.

 

I think people's expectations are inflated, and no one remembers the bad years. I completely forgot about how bad 2012-2013 was.

 

You automatically accept that background climo can be thrown out if u think DC can have 3 40"+ winters in a decade.

 

It's not a snow-drought because 09-10 was so anomalous, that was like 6 winters of average snow in one year.

 

I'm not disagreeing about easily having a below average snow totals on the year. That can happen any year. You said definitely snowless and you favor warm and rainy. Pretty bold statement with the only reasoning being global temps are at near records and it snowed a lot last year. A few 10ths of a degree globally is mostly meaningless irt whether we get snow here or not. It will be plenty cold in Canada and near the pole. We only need a pattern to deliver the air to our yards. If it doesn't happen it wasn't because of global temps. 

[AvantHiatus]

I'm not disagreeing about easily having a below average snow totals on the year. That can happen any year. You said definitely snowless and you favor warm and rainy. Pretty bold statement with the only reasoning being global temps are at near records and it snowed a lot last year. A few 10ths of a degree globally is mostly meaningless irt whether we get snow here or not. It will be plenty cold in Canada and near the pole. We only need a pattern to deliver the air to our yards. If it doesn't happen it wasn't because of global temps. 

Perhaps not directly, we've been in this pattern since November 2013. I would feel safer taking the opposite bet here. Some informative posts in the climate forum about how large the Hadley Cells are this year, could affect us during the winter.

 

You never know if 0.1C is all you need to cross some threshold. I rest my case for now. The northern hemisphere is loaded with heat at the moment, mainly where our downstream weather comes from (30-60N).

 

[wxdude64]

and the rest of that winter pretty much sucked too.  Oct 2011 doomed the winter of 2011-12  Just say 'NO' to October snow.

I disagree, had 35.3 here that winter (79-80), above my 26.5 average, many CO-ops and airports (ROA, LYN, LEW) in the 30+ range too and above average.

OCT- 6.0

NOV- T

DEC- T

JAN- 13.3

FEB- 5.5

MAR- 10.5

APR- T

TOT- 35.3

[T. August]

Perhaps not directly, we've been in this pattern since November 2013. I would feel safer taking the opposite bet here. Some informative posts in the climate forum about how large the Hadley Cells are this year, could affect us during the winter.

 

You never know if 0.1C is all you need to cross some threshold. I rest my case for now. The northern hemisphere is loaded with heat at the moment, mainly where our downstream weather comes from (30-60N).

 

According to new research, the extreme cold in Jan. was indirectly due to climate change (PV displacement). But you say "rainy and warm" would also be climate change (or, as you said, "global warming"). So what isn't AGW/climate change? Average temps every day for the rest of eternity?

 

I'm not trying to be antagonistic, just simply curious.

 

And, regarding snowfall and climate data in general: DCA/BWI have only been keeping records for not even 150 years as I'm sure you know. You can't expect all of the record highs and lows in such a small period of time. I'm sure there was a bigger snowstorm than the Knickerbocker Storm at DCA before records began.

[StudentOfClimatology]

DC never really has back-to-back ++ snowfall, same for most other places along the East Coast outside the mountains and LES belts.

In my mind, this winter is an easy win if you know what you're looking at. It's going to be cold or warm, but definitely snowless, compared to prior years (2009-2010 and 2013-2014). With global temps running record high, i'm leaning to the rainy and warm side.

Global temperatures actually correlate negatively with DCA snowfall in El Niño, so that metric is useless. See 2009-10, which is the record-holder in both departments, as a matter of fact.

See how warm the globe was running in 2009-10. The colder Niños of the 80s/90s were generally putrid here:

[StudentOfClimatology]

Perhaps not directly, we've been in this pattern since November 2013. I would feel safer taking the opposite bet here. Some informative posts in the climate forum about how large the Hadley Cells are this year, could affect us during the winter.

You never know if 0.1C is all you need to cross some threshold. I rest my case for now. The northern hemisphere is loaded with heat at the moment, mainly where our downstream weather comes from (30-60N).

Thanks.

The pattern actually began in January 2013, though. I admit I'm worried about not recovering in time for winter, but I think it'll be a bigger problem in November and December than in January/February.

That said, the observed SST warmth is ideally-located, too. It's all in the N-PAC, which not only favors Aleutian/N-PAC autumnal storminess (good for -NAO correlation), but also correlates well with a rapid advance in Siberian snowcover.

[AvantHiatus]

Global temperatures actually correlate negatively with DCA snowfall in El Niño, so that metric is useless. See 2009-10, which is the record-holder in both departments, as a matter of fact.

See how warm the globe was running in 2009-10. The colder Niños of the 80s/90s were generally putrid here:

August will most likely come in near record-warm on HadCRUT. Since the el nino will be intesifying into boreal winter, this will enable the SSTA to persist more effectively. I agree that the state of the NPAC is good for us. I'm just going with climo and pattern recognition. Long-range GFS and Euro support the transition I see for this winter.

 

The vast majority of the PV lobes end up on the Euroasian side. The PNA is ready to tank, long time coming. Remember 2011-2012, once the pattern locks in it usually stays around.

[AvantHiatus]

According to new research, the extreme cold in Jan. was indirectly due to climate change (PV displacement). But you say "rainy and warm" would also be climate change (or, as you said, "global warming"). So what isn't AGW/climate change? Average temps every day for the rest of eternity?

 

I'm not trying to be antagonistic, just simply curious.

 

And, regarding snowfall and climate data in general: DCA/BWI have only been keeping records for not even 150 years as I'm sure you know. You can't expect all of the record highs and lows in such a small period of time. I'm sure there was a bigger snowstorm than the Knickerbocker Storm at DCA before records began.

Weather events before 1950 are poor analogs due the AGW factor. Things will be inherently different now as GHG forcing (CH4 & CO2) are significantly elevated.

 

I'm saying that 2011-2012 warmth was also caused by AGW, just as 2013-2014's frigid cold. Basically every process is now occuring in a different background state.

[mitchnick]

August will most likely come in near record-warm on HadCRUT. Since the el nino will be intesifying into boreal winter, this will enable the SSTA to persist more effectively. I agree that the state of the NPAC is good for us. I'm just going with climo and pattern recognition. Long-range GFS and Euro support the transition I see for this winter.

 

The vast majority of the PV lobes end up on the Euroasian side. The PNA is ready to tank, long time coming. Remember 2011-2012, once the pattern locks in it usually stays around.

When I look at those PNA ensemble graphs, I see that 7 day forecasts did OK and the 14 day was not very good. I wouldn't put too much into the individual members shown in red when the mean is not that bad and the model history is not that great. Yes, it may tank, but I don't see it on those graphs.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Long-range GFS and Euro support the transition I see for this winter.

The vast majority of the PV lobes end up on the Euroasian side. The PNA is ready to tank, long time coming. Remember 2011-2012, once the pattern locks in it usually stays around.

Sounds like fuzzy reasoning to me, no offense. There really isn't any +correlation coefficient between the October regime and what goes down in DJF.

My primary concern this winter is a lack of blocking and/or a raging GOA vortex. The last thing I'm worried about is a -PNA/western trough.

[AvantHiatus]

Sounds like fuzzy reasoning to me, no offense. There really isn't any +correlation coefficient between the October regime and what goes down in DJF.

My primary concern this winter is a lack of blocking and/or a raging GOA vortex. The last thing I'm worried about is a -PNA/western trough.

We need all the chips on the table now to see 850mb temps below freezing. You should take into account the -PNA especially when 500mb heights over the Western Atlantic are gaining momentum with a deep oceanic warm pool. I think this winter will be a constant battle between the NPAC Ridge and Bermuda High in regards to our sensible weather locally.

 

Oscillating between extreme cold and heat on a bi-weekly basis. Note how you can see the Aleutians/GOA trough dipping down. The end result is progressiveness, this is more or less 2013 without the "luck" factor and insane Midwest PV from the historic 2013 summer melt season.

 

DJF is likely to be the warmest on record, assuming the el nino gains momentum. As with 2010, this does not guarantee a blowtorch but what if the chips don't line up, you can see where we could be going. It would be a 1997/1998 type regime. We have not observed a +PDO torch in a long time, people forgot about it.

[T. August]

We need all the chips on the table now to see 850mb temps below freezing. You should take into account the -PNA especially when 500mb heights over the Western Atlantic are gaining momentum with a deep oceanic warm pool. I think this winter will be a constant battle between the NPAC Ridge and Bermuda High in regards to our sensible weather locally.

 

Oscillating between extreme cold and heat on a bi-weekly basis. Note how you can see the Aleutians/GOA trough dipping down. The end result is progressiveness, this is more or less 2013 without the "luck" factor and insane Midwest PV from the historic 2013 summer melt season.

 

DJF is likely to be the warmest on record, assuming the el nino gains momentum. As with 2010, this does not guarantee a blowtorch but what if the chips don't line up, you can see where we could be going. It would be a 1997/1998 type regime. We have not observed a +PDO torch in a long time, people forgot about it.

The bold text should never be said with confidence. That's 3+ months out. Imagine how it would sound if someone said "the upcoming winter will likely be the coldest on record across the globe". You (not you personally) can't be taken seriously when such statements are made.

 

That's the problem I have with the climate change debate. Everyone says with such certainty that in (insert # here) years the planet will warm by (insert # here).

 

Just yesterday I saw an article saying that by 2080, Maryland won't have orioles (the bird) anymore. What? While this is an extreme case, it still happens too often.

 

Now, I'm not denying that recently the Earth hasn't warmed some, just to what degree (pun intended) is my argument.

[hosj III]

DJF is likely to be the warmest on record, assuming the el nino gains momentum. As with 2010, this does not guarantee a blowtorch but what if the chips don't line up, you can see where we could be going. It would be a 1997/1998 type regime. We have not observed a +PDO torch in a long time, people forgot about it.

 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't there a big difference between a +2.2 Nino and a +.8 Nino?

[AvantHiatus]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't there a big difference between a +2.2 Nino and a +.8 Nino?

You need to adjust for ONI, we don't need a +2.2 event to exceed 2010 now, in terms of global temperatures.