WEATHER53 Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Temperatures: Below average-well below average Snowfall:Above average-well above average Monthly Temps Dec:-1 Jan:-5 Feb:-2 Overall:-2.5 to -3.5 Snowfall DCA:25" IAD/BWI:30-35" Analog years:1953(54),1955(56),1963,1976,1980,1981,1983,1984,2001. I edited this about 30 minutes after posting. I do not have a primary analog this year. I do think the extreme cold air intrusions that the early 80's demonstrated is the sort of set up we will have. Those shots were not winter long but when they hit it was -20 and colder departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 I like a blend of 1963 and 1976 myself...Time will tell but as of now we are riding the same train... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Hope you're right. The analogs I'm using also suggest a strong SSW between Dec 25th and Jan 15th, w/ a -AO Jan and/or Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 15, 2014 Author Share Posted September 15, 2014 I like a blend of 1963 and 1976 myself...Time will tell but as of now we are riding the same train... People all over the world...join hands...on the snow train....cold train... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 15, 2014 Author Share Posted September 15, 2014 Hope you're right. The analogs I'm using also suggest a strong SSW between Dec 25th and Jan 15th, w/ a -AO Jan and/or Feb. Please post your outlook and if you can along the lines of the format I used. It's good to see who thinks what and why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Nicely done...I hope you're right...I'm not sure what direction I am going in yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 A -5 January would be something else. What did we do this year? I only know Winchester but we were -6 this past Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Monthly Temps Dec:- 0.5 Jan:-5 Feb:-3 Overall:-2.0 to -3.0 DCA: 45" total snowfall IAD: 60" total snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Wow, bold. I'm rooting for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Temperatures: Below average-well below average Snowfall:Above average-well above average Monthly Temps Dec:-1 Jan:-5 Feb:-2 Overall:-2.5 to -3.5 Snowfall DCA:25" IAD/BWI:30-35" Analog years:1953(54),1955(56),1963,1976,1980,1981,1983,1984,2001. I edited this about 30 minutes after posting. I do not have a primary analog this year. I do think the extreme cold air intrusions that the early 80's demonstrated is the sort of set up we will have. Those shots were not winter long but when they hit it was -20 and colder departures. Seems bold on the temps. As for snowfall, your forecasting > 50% above normal. Sign me up for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 I'd love to see these forecasts verify, but calling for a -5F month isn't just ballsy, it's suicidal. The other thing I see is that DCA is 150% snowfall, but IAD / BWI is barely above normal. Nothing against you guys in DC, but I sure hope there is a bigger spread between these airports than that. Good luck, and I hope you're right; if you are, then you deserve some major props. Edit: And PG ups the ante by forecasting 200% snow on top of the -5F Jan. Wow. This is going to be some winter if either of you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 I'd love to see these forecasts verify, but calling for a -5F month isn't just ballsy, it's suicidal. The other thing I see is that DCA is 150% snowfall, but IAD / BWI is barely above normal. Nothing against you guys in DC, but I sure hope there is a bigger spread between these airports than that. Good luck, and I hope you're right; if you are, then you deserve some major props. Edit: And PG ups the ante by forecasting 200% snow on top of the -5F Jan. Wow. This is going to be some winter if either of you are right. Believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 -5 at DCA is like -10 everywhere else, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Seems like back to back blockbuster winters here are mostly unprecedented in modern times. However, no scientific reasoning as to why this is the case, but I can appreciate why so many see a reason to remain bullish for the coming season, if only for persistence. Good luck with your outlook, I hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 I don't know what is considered a block buster winter in DCA...The last time there were two winters in a row with 25" or more was 1986-87/1987-88...1965-66/1966-67...1934-36 had three winters in a row with 30" or more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 We are due for a black swan event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Seems like back to back blockbuster winters here are mostly unprecedented in modern times. However, no scientific reasoning as to why this is the case, but I can appreciate why so many see a reason to remain bullish for the coming season, if only for persistence. Good luck with your outlook, I hope it verifies. For DCA, 86-87 and 87-88 was the last time. But 87-88 had a freak 11.5" Vet day storm. Dec & Feb sucked terribly but Jan produced 13". 77-83 only had 1 dog (80-81). Incredible stretch those seasons. Very fond memories and probably the period that most influenced my affliction to become a snow weenie. I think we stand a decent chance at back to back climo+ because last year was a bonus check. This upcoming season seems to want to have a more classic chance at good snow. It would be a kick in the teeth (and funny at the same time) to have a weak/mod nino and favorable npac but crap the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 What's this ''Black Swan'' event I'm hearing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 What's this ''Black Swan'' event I'm hearing? Something like the Veteran's day event that was mentioned on here, or the February 13th storm we had this year, but without the slosh/rain and on a slightly bigger scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Something like the Veteran's day event that was mentioned on here, or the February 13th storm we had this year, but without the slosh/rain and on a slightly bigger scale. Ah okay. I'd like an early season event a la October 2011 on a weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Ah okay. I'd like an early season event a la October 2011 on a weekend. You got snow from that? All I got was a pile of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 You got snow from that? All I got was a pile of sleet. I was in college in Lancaster, PA at the time. We got 4"-6" of snow from that event (depending on whether you lived on a hill or close to the Susquehanna River). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Ah okay. I'd like an early season event a la October 2011 on a weekend. More or less a big snowstorm where we luck out and don't predict it in advance...say like we think we have 6 inches coming, but it turns out to be like 13-14 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 I was in college in Lancaster, PA at the time. We got 4"-6" of snow from that event (depending on whether you lived on a hill or close to the Susquehanna River). Ah, okay. Inches of snow in October would be awesome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Ah okay. I'd like an early season event a la October 2011 on a weekend. NO! Absolutely not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 NO! Absolutely not! Double amen. The heck with snow before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 I was in college in Lancaster, PA at the time. We got 4"-6" of snow from that event (depending on whether you lived on a hill or close to the Susquehanna River). 3.5" on 10/29/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Double amen. The heck with snow before Thanksgiving. October snow is the death-knell for winter. October snows = winter blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 In keeping with the idea of an out-of-season event, four of Tenman's analog years had accumulating November snowfalls in this area. Nov 6-7, 1953 is one of the great early season events, along with snows in nov '55, '76, and '81. None of those doomed the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 In keeping with the idea of an out-of-season event, four of Tenman's analog years had accumulating November snowfalls in this area. Nov 6-7, 1953 is one of the great early season events, along with snows in nov '55, '76, and '81. None of those doomed the winter. 1980 had the 10-10-79 storm for western VA up thru Philadelphia too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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