ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Am I the only one concerned with that large patch of Above Average SSTA in the Arctic Ocean above the UK? I'm not sure where you got that from, but there is no way that is current. That shows a strongly -PDO signature in the North Pacific and we basically have the opposite right now. Also, the warmth you are describing up near Svalbard and north of Scandanavia is not on other SST datasets...it is actually cold up there right now. But this is off topic for this thread. We are discussing snow cover and snow advance. This is a topic for a different thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I'm not sure where you got that from, but there is no way that is current. That shows a strongly -PDO signature in the North Pacific and we basically have the opposite right now. Also, the warmth you are describing up near Svalbard and north of Scandanavia is not on other SST datasets...it is actually cold up there right now. But this is off topic for this thread. We are discussing snow cover and snow advance. This is a topic for a different thread. sorry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binovc Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Hudson Bay shown as warm also seems suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Hudson Bay shown as warm also seems suspect Hudson Bay is warm on this map, the area above UK is also warm...but yeah...the other map seems really different for some reason. Is that a recent temp change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Hudson Bay is warm on this map, the area above UK is also warm...but yeah...the other map seems really different for some reason. Is that a recent temp change? The original map I questioned looks like an old AMSR-E map from NASA...but AMSR-E went out in October 2011, so we haven't had any of those for 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 You're right, that map is from 2006. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Fwiw, my eyeballs tell me that the change on the 10/30 map for sub 60N is negligible. I see some gains and what appear to be fairly similarly sized losses there. So, I expect only a small change up or down for 10/30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Vast majority of loss since the 26th were in Europe FWIW. Prob finish around 17msk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 We've lost quite a bit the last two days. When this loop loads, I just use the backward arrow to get to the last few days. Only the 31st is missing from the loop now. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sample_loop2.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 There's no need to worry about the snow loss in Scandinavia. Most of it is North of 60N. PLUS, and more importantly, this is exactly the response we should be looking for. The snow pack in Siberia promotes a mid-level trough above it which forces upstream ridging (see Cohen et al. 2014) over Scandinavia and the Barents and Kara Seas. And this is exactly where we want ridging to produce upward vertical wave activity (see Feldstein and Lee 2014) which disrupts the polar vortex and forces a negative AO. This is the full 1-16 day average on the GFS Ensemble...it appears to show the type of response you mention here baggett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 This is the full 1-16 day average on the GFS Ensemble...it appears to show the type of response you mention here baggett. Yeah it sure does, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 We've lost quite a bit the last two days. When this loop loads, I just use the backward arrow to get to the last few days. Only the 31st is missing from the loop now. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sample_loop2.php Here's a snapshot of the health of the snowpack for today so we can guesstimate where losses will be on the 31st maps. Still torching in the west. This image is from 2am EST last night. Here's the scale. Remember 273°K is 0°K/32°F, right where the yellows transition to orange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Here's a snapshot of the health of the snowpack for today so we can guesstimate where losses will be on the 31st maps. Still torching in the west. This image is from 2am EST last night. Here's the scale. Remember 273°K is 0°K/32°F, right where the yellows transition to orange. Das, what web site is that from? Another web site that I found recently, the Canadian Cryospheric Information Network page: https://www.ccin.ca/home/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 We've lost quite a bit the last two days. When this loop loads, I just use the backward arrow to get to the last few days. Only the 31st is missing from the loop now. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sample_loop2.php Per Natice's 10/31 map vs. 10/30, there was another rather significant drop on the western flank for the last day of the month. The western flank has taken a pretty substantial hit since 10/27 though with much of it above 60N. However, in today's case, a large portion of the losses was below 60N. It is possible that 0.5 msk or even more than that was lost from below 60N. Nevertheless, cfbaggett uses regression to chart trend lines as per the prescribed SAI methodology. So, whereas this should cause a reduction in the slope of the trend line, I'm assuming it will be rather minimal. Also, he and others have been saying that things have already been set in motion from the earlier very high max set 10/27. So, if that is the case, then these last few days of melting would seemingly hardly matter. Does anyone disagree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Due to the regression, it would be hard to make a case that it matters. Both statistically and from a physical standpoint of the processes set in motion, this year doesn't seem too different than other top years. 1976 also had a reduction in snow cover from late Oct through early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Is this really anything for us to worry about? I just looked and a significant portion melted away. Too late to matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Is this really anything for us to worry about? I just looked and a significant portion melted away. Too late to matter? Due to the regression, it would be hard to make a case that it matters. Both statistically and from a physical standpoint of the processes set in motion, this year doesn't seem too different than other top years. 1976 also had a reduction in snow cover from late Oct through early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Is this really anything for us to worry about? I just looked and a significant portion melted away. Too late to matter? Due to the regression, it would be hard to make a case that it matters. Both statistically and from a physical standpoint of the processes set in motion, this year doesn't seem too different than other top years. 1976 also had a reduction in snow cover from late Oct through early November. Yeah I saw that..just a little worried, but overall it seems were still on track. Hope it stays that way and doesn't go ape on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Yeah I saw that..just a little worried, but overall it seems were still on track. Hope it stays that way and doesn't go ape on us. You're missing the point, and apparently haven't read the whole thread. The October Eurasian snow cover watch ends today, and the stratospheric results should already be in the pipeline if the theory holds. What happens on the ground in November is of little importance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 You're missing the point, and apparently haven't read the whole thread. The October Eurasian snow cover watch ends today, and the stratospheric results should already be in the pipeline if the theory holds. What happens on the ground in November is of little importance. You're missing the point to, and apparently haven't read what I just said, the "Hope it stays that way" was not about the snow cover, but that everything stays on track this winter to make it memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 This day last year compared to today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 This day last year compared to today Wow, that really shows how big of a year this was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Wow, that really shows how big of a year this was.2009 and 2012 oct 31, as we can see, oct 2014 beats them all despite the melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Even though it apparently doesn't matter much and may actually be a good sign that the process is already proceeding, I still think it is noteworthy for the record that ~~3 msk (per my rough estimate) was lost from the western flank for all of Eurasia since the 10/26 peak (~~ half of that lost below 60N), which I roughly estimate was near a VERY impressive (and probably 2nd highest for that date), 19 msk. So, I'm very roughly guessing that total Eurasian SCE is now 16 msk to end Oct. in case anyone cares. I don't know but that big loss may ironically be a good sign per what I've read here fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 2009 and 2012 oct 31, as we can see, oct 2014 beats them all despite the melt. AH, It looks like you're comparing total Eurasian SCE on these maps. Regardless of whether or not it matters much (assuming not), I honestly don't think 2014 beats 2012 and 2009 in total Eurasian snowcover as of 10/31 thanks to what I'm estimating was ~3 msk loss since 10/26 to ~16 msk. Then, 2014 was well ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 AH, It looks like you're comparing total Eurasian SCE on these maps. Regardless of whether or not it matters much, I honestly don't think 2014 beats 2012 and 2009 in total Eurasian snowcover as of 10/31 thanks to what I'm estimating was ~3 msk loss since 10/27 to ~16 msk. Then, 2014 was well ahead. Actually I was eyeballing 60 and south. Regardless, SAI will likely take some hit with -3msk. How much of a hit? Comparing the 27th and today does look pretty catastrophic in terms of snow loss. We'll know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Actually I was eyeballing 60 and south. Regardless, SAI will likely take some hit with -3msk. How much of a hit? Comparing the 27th and today does look pretty catastrophic in terms of snow loss. We'll know soon enough. For 60 south, I agree that 2014 SCE beats 2012 SCE as of 10/31 and is close to 2009, perhaps even slightly ahead of it. The really great news is that as of 10/26 and nearby days, 2014 was WAY ahead of both for sub 60 N! So, due to the use of regression to determine slope for SAI, 2014 still looks to finish at least near 2009 (I think) and only behind 1976 I think. That is the most important thing with regard to SAI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 And so October ends... Amazing month. The slope, as I calculate it, was 295,000 km^2/day. Thus, it appears we can predict with reasonable confidence a strongly negative AO winter. Let's watch how the pattern evolves over the next few weeks. Heck, maybe instead folks in the Southeast should simply look out the window. Heavy snow in the low-country of South Carolina this morning!?!?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 And so October ends... Amazing month. The slope, as I calculate it, was 295,000 km^2/day. Thus, it appears we can predict with reasonable confidence a strongly negative AO winter. Let's watch how the pattern evolves over the next few weeks. Heck, maybe instead folks in the Southeast should simply look out the window. Heavy snow in the low-country of South Carolina this morning!?!?!?!?! Thanks for the update. Linear regression line FTW. Yep, Nov 1 snow deep into SC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 And so October ends... Amazing month. The slope, as I calculate it, was 295,000 km^2/day. Thus, it appears we can predict with reasonable confidence a strongly negative AO winter. Let's watch how the pattern evolves over the next few weeks. Heck, maybe instead folks in the Southeast should simply look out the window. Heavy snow in the low-country of South Carolina this morning!?!?!?!?! Cfbaggett, The earliest on record low 500 mb hts back to 1948 were beaten at ATL and are being obliterated between 12Z today and 0Z tonight for the AGS/COLA/SAV/CHS corridor. So, all of these are essentially once in a lifetime records. Essentially, this is saying that this is the strongest 500 mb low this far south this early since at least 1948! I see there was a whopping 2 msk drop south of 60N over the last days of the month( no surprise), but that the slope being derived via the linear regression required to satisfy the SAI def. is showing only a small drop due to it as expected, which is good news. Thanks for posting these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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