And we begin

[GaWx]

Here is my latest analysis. There was a drop of snow cover during the October 21-23 time frame, but it seems there has been a rebound since.

 

Mike,

 Thanks for posting.

Now I really don't what to believe!! Whereas the NESDIS data suggested a sig. drop from 10/23 to 10/26 period, Mike's graph is showing the polar opposite! Wtf??

 

PS Bring back Rutgers! Bring back Rutgers! Please come back ASAP.

[DaculaWeather]

Mike,

 Thanks for posting.

Now I really don't what to believe!! Whereas the NESDIS data suggested a sig. drop from 10/23 to 10/26 period, Mike's graph is showing the polar opposite!

OK... let's go with Mike's. :-) 

[GaWx]

OK... let's go with Mike's. :-) 

 

Lol, now if we can only get him to move his 2014 line up, we're suddenly in like Flynn!

 

Edit: Mods. please change the name of this thread to "As the snowcover changes"

[millwx]

Millwx,

 In your week 42 analyses, do you literally look at week 42 without adjustments for differing calendars each year?

 

Yes, I just look at the data as provided.  There is no way to accurately adjust.  Obviously, since we're looking at bulk statistics, if I just linearly interpolated to redefined each Week 42 to be on the same days it would probably be pretty safe (I think you tried something like this, and it looked reasonable).  But it's still imperfect... and then how do you deal with the leap year, since you're technically one day later in the year on those occasions?  It becomes messy.  So, I just leave it alone.  I take Week 42 as Week 42.  That would also explain why Weeks 41 and 43 maintain a decent correlation, since the weeks are "sloshing around" a bit year to year.  But, if that's so, then that gives me even more confidence in focusing on Week 42 (because Weeks 41 and 43 are just getting rescued by the shifting weeks allowing them to occasionally bleed into what is a "typical" Week 42).  That would ALSO be further encouragement on THIS year, as the "true" Week 42 would include the early part of Week 43 (which includes a lot of gains, but cuts off before the melt we'll see the next few days).

 

So, anyway, it's messy any way you do it.  But, as explained, the fact that it's a little "sloppy" in the raw data actually gives me better confidence in the results.  Perhaps one of these days I'll try an "adjusted" Weeks analysis and see what happens.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Ok, Friv. I'm no longer worried. Forget this last week of Oct. Are you happy now?

 

PS. I'm just trying to be objective.

 

PPS: I can't believe Friv, the Global Warmer, is suddenty more optimistic than me for this winter. That sounds backward.

 

PPPS: I see Mike is in the house. If I went literally by his graphs for SAI and SCE, I'd really be pessimistic.

 

 

Just saying in a practical sense at least from the surface in a real time manner the huge albedo differences from 15-30%(bare ground, grass, rocky, and so on) versus snow covered 65-80% isn't very much when the sun angle at (53.5N) is only reaching 22.5 degrees in altitude.

 

I don't know if there is a lag or not when are talking about temperature changes between the surface and the stratosphere. 

 

 

 

 

Last year was my best winter of my life here with 40" of snow and a 15" storm.  Thanks to the miracle once or maybe twice a lifetime NPAC.

 

 

This year has the chance to bring multiple major Jan-March storms for my area with a wide open gulf fetch.

[GaWx]

 Thanks MillWx!

 

 Mike's graph may be still another gamechanger! And this one is great news if reflecting reality!

 

 So, ironically enough, even though Mike's 2014 line looks way too low (so I'm ignoring that aspect), he's suddenly bringing me back closer to my prior extreme optimism with his graph showing GREAT gains for 10/24-27. This actually make much more sense from what I had been expecting and saying over the last few days. Keep in mind that I've been saying recently that based on following model consensus daily for new snow and temperatures, I've been expecting the max for this month to be near 10/27-8 with only a rather modest drop afterward into the end of the month.

 

 I'm now getting suspicious that Nesdis' very worrying sig. 10/23-6 drop is false.

 

Edit: I've never had a big problem with Mike's day to day changes as they actually reflected Rutgers and cfbaggett pretty nicely. It is his starting point in relation to other years that looks way off. 2014 should be near the top tied with 2013, not near the bottom tied with 2009.

[The_Global_Warmer]

 Thanks MillWx!

 

 Mike's graph may be still another gamechanger! And this one is great news if reflecting reality!

 

 So, ironically enough, even though Mike's 2014 line looks way too low (so I'm ignoring that aspect), he's suddenly bringing me back closer to my prior extreme optimism with his graph showing GREAT gains for 10/24-27. This actually make much more sense from what I had been expecting and saying over the last few days. Keep in mind that I've been saying recently that based on following model consensus daily for new snow and temperatures, I've been expecting the max for this month to be near 10/27-8 with only a rather modest drop afterward into the end of the month.

 

 I'm now getting suspicious that Nesdis' very worrying sig. 10/23-6 drop is false.

 

Edit: I've never had a problem with Mike's day to day chages as they actually reflected Rutgers and cfbaggett very well. It is his starting point in relation to other years that looks way off. 2014 should be near the top tied with 2013, not near the bottom tied with 2009.

 

 

 

I doubt it's fake.

 

Remote sensing and the GFS will probably not be in alignment.  The real time weather would side with the remote sensing. 

[millwx]

 Thanks MillWx!

 

 Mike's graph may be still another gamechanger! And this one is great news if reflecting reality!

 

 So, ironically enough, even though Mike's 2014 line looks way too low (so I'm ignoring that aspect), he's suddenly bringing me back closer to my prior extreme optimism with his graph showing GREAT gains for 10/24-27. This actually make much more sense from what I had been expecting and saying over the last few days. Keep in mind that I've been saying recently that based on following model consensus daily for new snow and temperatures, I've been expecting the max for this month to be near 10/27-8 with only a rather modest drop afterward into the end of the month.

 

 I'm now getting suspicious that Nesdis' very worrying sig. 10/23-6 drop is false.

 

GaWx, step away from the ledge.  That NESDIS plot looks flat out weird (looks like someone drew a cute little ribbon at the end).  Did you see the image I posted up-thread from EnviroCanada?  Same deal as the NESDIS and Mike plots... Eurasian snow cover... and it is also updated through 10/26 (which is the same as 10/27... since Mike's plot label is 00Z on 10/27... it's the 10/26 data, just like the EnviroCanada and NESDIS plots).  So, they're all plotting the same thing.  I trust the EnviroCanada plot.  And there is no drop... just a continuation of the steep RISE.  Now, as you've observed in model space, we may get a drop upcoming... maybe even a decent one.  But, to date... no loss.

[GaWx]

I doubt it's fake.

 

Remote sensing and the GFS will probably not be in alignment.  The real time weather would side with the remote sensing. 

 

Friv,

 I don't follow you. And what does the GFS model have to do with any of the various SCE graphs/maps?

[The_Global_Warmer]

Friv,

 I don't follow you. And what does the GFS model have to do with any of the various SCE graphs/maps?

 

 

The losses on here are nor likely to be fake even though the GFS shows something different.

 

The black dot on the Western side is where Moscow is.  Which reached almost 50F today.  So the drop over these edges and in the Mongolia region is likely correct. 

 

I am not sure why the NESDIS graphic is funky at the end. But there is certainly a drop. 

 

Moscow's averages are 40/31 still. So it's not surprising. 

 

 

 

[das]

I doubt it's fake.

Remote sensing and the GFS will probably not be in alignment. The real time weather would side with the remote sensing.

Since I was a remote sensing guy, I probably give too much credibility to the tools. That said, the NESDIS data is corroborated by over 1800 ground observations so it's probably pretty accurate. Indeed, the accuracy rate is over 95%.

[GaWx]

 I just finished talking to someone at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, CO. They, too, get data from Natice. The lady there told me that Natice had been hoping to get the data feed reinstated to them this past Friday but were unsuccessful. Today, NSIDC was told that the data would be reinstated "soon". So, she said that could very well mean later today though it may still take til tomorrow for full processing to be back to normal. All of this fwiw.

 I couldn't find an easy way to contact anyone at Natice or Rutgers, themselves, but that's a good enough update for me.

[DTWXRISK]

 those maps are  AWFUL ...  the  color the  projection etc 

 

Wouldn't it be a bit to late now for the edges to really factor that much?

 

Never the less there will probably be some melting today in parts of Southern Russia where WAA and rain is taking place but it looks like a cold front sweeps thru the area over the next couple days.

 

 

 

 

 

The Western front on the other hand is being bombarded with pretty decent winds and waa.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at the snow depth chart Mike Ventrice posted you would think there will be a pretty big drop this week.

 

 

But again I can't see how that could really effect the atmospheric processes already in play.

[GaWx]

 Monitoring the SCE has turned into a genuine clusterfook this year. But it has been fun.

[Absolute Humidity]

I don't know? Despite the losses discussed above, these maps appear; to my naked eye to have overall increased snowfall from the 23rd on with the 26th having the most coverage. Seems to support MillWx EnviroCanadian and Mikes latest increases.

[GaWx]

Absolute Humidity,

By golly, you are absolutely correct per my look! Nice find! The biggest net gain was on 10/26. Once my eyeballing confirmed yours, I did precise enough visual based analysis to be able to roughly estimate a whopping nearly 1.0 msk total net increase from 10/23 to 10/26. I was able to do this by counting the lat./long. rectangles and estimating the totals for 10/23 and 10/26. I counted ~57 rectangles for 10/23 and ~60 for 10/26. 60/57 = 1.053, which means just over a 5% increase. If we assume there was already, say, 18-19 msk on 10/23 (I think it was in that neighborhood based on Rutgers' scale), that 5.3% increase amounts to nearly 1.0 msk increase, an impressive increase for just 3 days. That compares to the earlier worry that there was a near 0.7 loss for that same period! So, in my mind, we may be a whopping ~1.6 to 1.7 msk better than I had thought this morning!

So, any negativity I felt earlier today is just about completely gone now. It appears with almost certainty now that we are, indeed, still on track for a very impressive full October SAI. This also means that my earlier thoughts of ~10/27-28 peak may end up verifying.

Now if we can get Natice back, I fully expect a very impressive cfbaggett update.

[DaculaWeather]

Here's a good look at the increases from this animation. I went back to October 1st to start. The images change every 2 seconds. The image from the 21st is missing, I'll add it if it comes back. I've also added placeholders for the last few days of October. 

 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sample_loop2.php

[Absolute Humidity]

GaWx, thanks for the kind words. In terms of SCE we are way ahead of last year and a decent amount ahead of 2012.

[GaWx]

Upon further thinking, the gain from 10/23 to 10/26 was likely even more than 5.3%. Why? Unless I'm not thinking correctly, the rectangles in reality cover larger areas as you come further south. The increase of ~3 rectangles was mainly within the 45-55 N latitude band. Those rectangles are significantly larger in square kilometers than the ones within, say, the 70-75 N latitude band even though they are the same size on these kind of maps .So, therefore my revised estimate of the increase is actually quite a bit higher than 5.3%. It could very well be more like, say, 8% or so based on top of the head rough estimations. If it really was more like 8%, then the 10/23-26 increase was more like 1.5 msk, a very impressive increase! If that is truly the case, we may very well be near or even above the great late October milestone of a whopping 20 msk of total Eurasian SCE! If this is the case, cfbaggett's line will almost definitely go off the top of his chart on his next update should he not increase his maximum sub 60 N SCE above 9.0 msk.

[griteater]

Ha ha, the squiggly curly Q on the NESDIS extent graph was indeed suspect.  It's now showing Eurasian extent up to 18.16 as of Oct 26...

 

[Absolute Humidity]

Ha ha, the squiggly curly Q on the NESDIS extent graph was indeed suspect.  It's now showing Eurasian extent up to 18.16 as of Oct 26...

 

That's pretty amazing considering 1976's 17.22 msk, per Rutgers being the year of record since 1967. Be interesting to see if 2014 becomes the new year of record. It certainly has a decent chance.

[griteater]

That's pretty amazing considering 1976's 17.22 msk, per Rutgers being the year of record since 1967. Be interesting to see if 2014 becomes the new year of record. It certainly has a decent chance.

 

I see that 17.22 number for October on the Rutgers site.  That must be an October average because in Week 43 that ended on Oct 25 (1976), the snow extent was 22.55...so, that's the gold standard.

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_vis.php?ui_year=1976&ui_week=43&ui_set=0

[griteater]

It does look like the current 18.16 is the second highest on record back to 1966 for the late Oct timeframe (of course, that is using the NESDIS data...Rutgers data could be different, but should be in the ballpark)

[Absolute Humidity]

It does look like the current 18.16 is the second highest on record back to 1966 for the late Oct timeframe (of course, that is using the NESDIS data...Rutgers data could be different, but should be in the ballpark)

I see that 17.22 number for October on the Rutgers site.  That must be an October average because in Week 43 that ended on Oct 25 (1976), the snow extent was 22.55...so, that's the gold standard.

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_vis.php?ui_year=1976&ui_week=43&ui_set=0

Yes was going by the monthly. But I guess we won't know Rutgers weeklies until a day or so after nasdis is up.

[GaWx]

1) With this Nesdis update, there was a rise from 16.7 on 10/23 to 18.16 on 10/26, or +1.46. Per my earlier counting rectangle post, this jibes well. So, I believe this Nesdis update.

 

2) Based on my comparison of past Rutgers and Nesdis, it looks like Nesdis has a low bias vs. Rutgers in general. Six examples for late October suggesting this low bias:

 

2013 ~15.0 on Nesdis vs. ~16.3 on Rutgers

2012 ~16.4 on Nesdis vs. ~17.6 on Rutgers

2011 ~14.8 on Nesdis vs. ~15.9 on Rutgers

2010 ~13.0 on Nesdis vs. ~14.0 on Rutgers

2009 ~16.5 on Nesdis vs. ~18.3 on Rutgers

2006 ~13.1 on Nesdis vs. ~14.7 on Rutgers

 

 The ratios of Rutgers to Nesdis for these late Octobers average 1.09. Lowest was 1.07.

 

 However, for whatever reason, both 2008 and 2007 didn't follow this pattern as they were very close...i.e., ~1.00. Then again, those were two of the oldest years. Also, I was earlier thinking that the 19 msk barrier had likely been crossed on Rutgers. I'm guessing that there will be about a 7% increase this time to convert from Nesdis to Rutgers. So, 1.07 x 18.16 = 19.4. So, I'm educatedly guessing that Rutgers is currently ~19.4 msk for total Eurasian SCE (with ~19.0 on the low end). If that is a good estimate, that would mean that only 1976 was higher in late Oct. (~22 msk) as was just noted in this thread. Also, it would likely put the SAI among the elite top four or so.

 

Well, today was a crazy day. Let's see how these last few days of the month go.

 

******EDITED for careless errors in Nesdis/Rutgers comparisons as I had written them backward in most cases lol.

[DaculaWeather]

27th image is out. Using the loop, it's easy to go back and forth between days to see the changes.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sample_loop2.php

 

 

[millwx]

While I understand someone's previous defense of the remotely sensed data (hey, I was at NESDIS 13 years... I hear ya on the quality of the data), keep in mind that the plot from the Canadian Cryospheric is also from remotely sensed data.  So, there really was no reason to believe that crazy curly-q NESDIS plot.  A mere blip in the data... processing error... data muff-up from the recent problems... who knows.  Anyway, nice to see it fixed now.

 

...and further verified by the Canadian site... today's update showing no let-up (note: in case anyone's suspect of this sources, this agency IS, in fact, a branch of Environment Canada - as the label upper right correctly identifies... just like NESDIS is to NOAA... not some crackpot agency... should be very reliable):

 

The *only* problem I have with this EnviroCanada and NESDIS data is a simple apples to apples issue.  We've all (well, most of us anyway) gotten our "ground truth" from Rutgers.  We're geared to those numbers, which MIGHT not be calculated the exact same way.  So, the precise values in these tables may or may not be reflective of what Rutgers would report.  It's nice to see continued solid gains (and, hey, Week 43 ends today!).  So, it's all good.  I'm just saying it's tough to get a handle on specific values (GaWx, you're doing a bang-up job trying to derive some reasonable estimates on that).

[heavy_wx]

FWIW, here is a loop of snow cover based on the GDAS from 1-27 October. I changed the methodolgy of determining whether a grid point was snow-covered by finding all the points where the SWE was greater than zero. These analyses seem to correspond better with the numbers from the Rutgers dataset. The 27 October analysis shows a Eurasian extent of 9.18 msk and seems to match the composite snow cover images others have posted recently. I would still wait until the numbers from the observational dataset are posted before getting too excited, but these images suggest pretty good increases in Eurasian extent have continued through the month.

 

[cfbaggett]

Using the naked eye, I think we have gained ~2.5 msk south of 60N since the satellite feed outage. Adding this to my prior number of 6.6 msk, that makes ~9.1 msk. A tremendous number! Simply crushing anything we've seen in terms of extent and rate of growth since the late 70s. Comparing the two figures below, I count ~ 5 to 5.5 boxes of 10 degrees longitude by 5 degree latitude in growth. For fun, I've updated my graph with this rough, back of the envelope estimate. I'll of course update when the data feed is reestablished.

 

 

 

 

[Wow]

This is definitely the best "And we begin" threads so far. Excellent analysis.  I hereby allow only Jerry to start this thread every year!