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And we begin

weathafella

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

We're near the bottom. Season melt season least robust since 2006 but no thank you on that winter.

post-79-0-06056400-1410733268_thumb.jpg

Hard saving the snow progression. Let's see it grow in the coming weeks especially as we approach October.

post-79-0-40658900-1410733327_thumb.jpg

Finally, as you long time posters know, this is an annual thread for me. 3 years ago someone else posted the thread with the same name. Result: snowless winter for most of the USA. So while I usually wait till 9/15, I don't want to chance it....lol.

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AvantHiatus

AvantHiatus

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Forgive me however I don't see a strong correlation between winter patterns and sea ice. In the 90s, winters were warmer specifically in the NE and Upper Midwest than they are now, yet there was more sea ice.

 

Additionally, you should use AMSR2 (higher resolution), it is more accurate. We are basically horse racing with 2013 at this point.

 

Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_prev_L.png

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weathafella

weathafella

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Forgive me however I don't see a strong correlation between winter patterns and sea ice. In the 90s, winters were warmer specifically in the NE and Upper Midwest than they are now, yet there was more sea ice.

 

Additionally, you should use AMSR2 (higher resolution), it is more accurate. We are basically horse racing with 2013 at this point.

 

Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_prev_L.png

I actually agree with this. The big factor is snow progression moving forward into October.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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I actually agree with this. The big factor is snow progression moving forward into October.

Last year was an interesting case. Snow piled up in late Sept in Siberia so the rate of gain in Oct was low because it was covered already. We did end up with a big +ao in Dec so Cohen's research verified. Thankfully other factors overwhelmed it and then the collapse in Jan. I kinda hope Siberia stays as snowless as possible until the 30th and then let's the dumping begin.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Last year was an interesting case. Snow piled up in late Sept in Siberia so the rate of gain in Oct was low because it was covered already. We did end up with a big +ao in Dec so Cohen's research verified. Thankfully other factors overwhelmed it and then the collapse in Jan. I kinda hope Siberia stays as snowless as possible until the 30th and then let's the dumping begin.

Extent was massive. I would take a repeat of last year in a heartbeat.
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Big Dec +ao's can be a kiss of death down here. Last year was a fluke on many levels for us ma folks. Especially Dec. We did hit the 80's a couple times mid month so that was "interesting" lol.

EPO trumped all for us. Once again it's that time of year where we over analyze every facet and hope for the best. Love it so much. I am a tad worried lol that Jerry's elephant makes a return ala 09 10 but of course you would be dancing naked in the street if that happens. Good times. PS how did you do 66/67?
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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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EPO trumped all for us. Once again it's that time of year where we over analyze every facet and hope for the best. Love it so much. I am a tad worried lol that Jerry's elephant makes a return ala 09 10 but of course you would be dancing naked in the street if that happens. Good times. PS how did you do 66/67?

I'll have to dig back and check on 66-67.

Last year was so fun for us down here because the pattern was hostile overall but we maximized nearly every chance we got. As far as an 09-10 redux goes...the Pac and Atl won dancing with the stars for the ma. That happening again inside of 5 years is probably a meteorological impossibility. LOL.

If we start Dec with a stout -AO then maybe we hit climo+ in back to back years. I don't think that's happened since the 80's IIRC.

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Mallow

Mallow

Posted
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Last year was an interesting case. Snow piled up in late Sept in Siberia so the rate of gain in Oct was low because it was covered already. We did end up with a big +ao in Dec so Cohen's research verified. Thankfully other factors overwhelmed it and then the collapse in Jan. I kinda hope Siberia stays as snowless as possible until the 30th and then let's the dumping begin.

 

Yes!

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stadiumwave

stadiumwave

Posted
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A number of models showing the big Alaska ridge with warm SST's off the Pac coast for the winter.

Setup looks even better than last winter in some respects.

 

 

But the placement of the ridge is HUGE! If could easily result in a torch for parts of U.S. if it's further east.  If it's like last year then -EPO will still be in play.

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The_Global_Warmer

The_Global_Warmer

Posted
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Once the niño gets rolling it's likely that ridge will get the boot into Canada/W. Half of the conus.

This winter will almost certainly need strong NWATL/GIS/Hudson Bay blocking.

When I was looking at analogs the other day for ONI DJF above 0.8 and 1.2 there was tremendous blocking with -NAO.

With the NEPAC under a vortex in almost everyone.

But heights were still well below normal for the Southern half of the Conus. With the above normal temps only reaching the upper Midwest and lakes. With Russua and the Russian side of the arctic below normal.

Right mow I personally give the ONI a an 80% chance of averaging somewhere between 0.8c and 1.2c during DJF.

The key is the -NAO. Likely West based.

I give an 75% chance of a +epp this winter.

But above normal snowfall from N. Texas thru Southern Kansas, Dallas to the NE, Notth of Little Rock to St. Lous, from South Central IL to around Laf, from Western Kentucky to Indy, South Central Ohio , West Virginia, Southern Pennsyvania, to Phiily, DC, Baltimore and the North half of Virgina.

I see well above normal over the Mid South or NE Miss, Northern Alabama, Northern Georgia, and the Southern Mtns.

Another band of potential well above normal from Northerm Jersey, Eastern New York, NYC, Hartford, Boston, SE Maine,

I think there will be a huge gradient to below normal snow NW of there in WNY, Vermont, And NH.

I think the upper Midwest is normal or below but does well with clippers, the lakes normal to to possibly below in LEK zones because of the lakes cooling off to fast.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

We're near the bottom. Season melt season least robust since 2006 but no thank you on that winter.

image.jpg

Hard saving the snow progression. Let's see it grow in the coming weeks especially as we approach October.

image.jpg

Finally, as you long time posters know, this is an annual thread for me. 3 years ago someone else posted the thread with the same name. Result: snowless winter for most of the USA. So while I usually wait till 9/15, I don't want to chance it....lol.

Will this image update daily as it has in the past?

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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Posted

We're near the bottom. Season melt season least robust since 2006 but no thank you on that winter.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Hard saving the snow progression. Let's see it grow in the coming weeks especially as we approach October.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Finally, as you long time posters know, this is an annual thread for me. 3 years ago someone else posted the thread with the same name. Result: snowless winter for most of the USA. So while I usually wait till 9/15, I don't want to chance it....lol.

Some gains at the top of the world on our side today.

post-79-0-49756300-1410836549_thumb.jpg

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Here is the Cohen SAI (Snow Advance Index), with correlation to the AO.  The sign of the SAI is reversed on the graph for comparison with the AO, such that a negative SAI indicates a more rapid advance of snowcover in Oct south of 60N in Eurasia, while a positive SAI indicates a less rapid advance.

 

v4b347.gif

 

 

The first composite below is from the 4 fastest snow advance years.  The second composite is from the 5 slowest advance years.  The 500mb pattern is completely opposite between the two from the eastern half of Asia over into the NE Pacific.  Along with being opposite, the anomalies are stronger in the high snow advance composite compared with the lower snow advance composite.  Something to watch for as we move into early Oct.

 

Q4N2O1R.png

jYzLVLB.png

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Here is the Cohen SAI (Snow Advance Index), with correlation to the AO.  The sign of the SAI is reversed on the graph for comparison with the AO, such that a negative SAI indicates a more rapid advance of snowcover in Oct south of 60N in Eurasia, while a positive SAI indicates a less rapid advance.

 

v4b347.gif

 

 

The first composite below is from the 4 fastest snow advance years.  The second composite is from the 5 slowest advance years.  The 500mb pattern is completely opposite between the two from the eastern half of Asia over into the NE Pacific.  Along with being opposite, the anomalies are stronger in the high snow advance composite compared with the lower snow advance composite.  Something to watch for as we move into early Oct.

 

Q4N2O1R.png

jYzLVLB.png

 

I posted this in the MA forum

looks like Cohen's research isn't bullet proof

he has a model that includes OCT Eurasian snow and this was what it predicted last year

http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

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Weather.St

Weather.St

Posted
Posted

The sea ice extent was a strong factor into making our winter forecast of WxTalk.Net. I don't see New England missing out on some large storms this year compared to last year, when the arctic energy blasted through over and over again with mostly frozen lakes. Also see some good chances this year of the lake Effect snow engine getting turned back on, whereas there was a lack of it last year. Will be interesting to see the October snow progression southward this year, and how fast it invades into the northern tier of the U.S.

 

The interesting thing is that the Weather Prediction Center ( National Weather Service division) expects the midwest to be well below average on precipitation through the month of February.  Medium El Nino years have produced varied results in these areas, with the southwest flow typically latching on to the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic, using forcing large areas of high pressure south out of Canada into the central area of the country. Last year was a bit different, allowing the flow to come mostly from Alaska and train down through the midwest ahead of bitterly cold arctic air. So a switch up like this would lend one to believe that it will be a less snowy year in the midwest. At least into October things are in moderation patterns across the area, some cold fronts moving through with larger storms remaining offshore in response to stubborn areas of high pressure. I do think as we move into october, the pattern will shift and allow the cold air to spill down into the midwest and allow for some wintry precip. So, I don't think this is going to be a below-average year for folks out into the Ohio valley and The lakes.

 

Interestingly enough, the WPC also puts the northeast into line with an equal chance year, which I always consider to be a "I don't know, so we play it safe" prediction. this is perfectly fine, but they did not release much information on why they chose that category as their basis. So i am just as perplexed as others when it comes to analyzing what they were thinking, or what factors they actually included. If it was analog based, I kind of want to know which analogs they went with, and why.

 

Anyways, sorry for the long post with some stuff people already knew. Figured I would just put my 2 cents in where it counted.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

I posted this in the MA forum

looks like Cohen's research isn't bullet proof

he has a model that includes OCT Eurasian snow and this was what it predicted last year

http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

 

Yeah, based on that link, his forecast model didn't perform well over most of the U.S.  

 

However, the SAI-AO correlation performed fairly well.  Using the snow advance graphs from poster 'cfbaggett' from last October (hopefully, he will do them again this year), I calculated an estimate SAI reading of +0.7 for last October by comparing the snow advance slopes from cfbaggett's graph with the SAI value in Cohen's SAI-AO correlation graph.  Averaging the monthly AO reading from NOAA from last winter, I came up with a DJF AO reading of +0.2 and a DJFM reading of +0.4.  Thus, I would view last winter's SAI-AO correlation a success, but the forecast model's performance a failure (for the U.S).

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Weather.St

Weather.St

Posted
Posted

Yeah, based on that link, his forecast model didn't perform well over most of the U.S.  

 

However, the SAI-AO correlation performed fairly well.  Using the snow advance graphs from poster 'cfbaggett' from last October (hopefully, he will do them again this year), I calculated an estimate SAI reading of +0.7 for last October by comparing the snow advance slopes from cfbaggett's graph with the SAI value in Cohen's SAI-AO correlation graph.  Averaging the monthly AO reading from NOAA from last winter, I came up with a DJF AO reading of +0.2 and a DJFM reading of +0.4.  Thus, I would view last winter's SAI-AO correlation a success, but the forecast model's performance a failure (for the U.S).

Interesting. i will have to check out those graphs this year if he does them. This is the first i heard of someone doing that.

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