dendrite Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Midway 1928-09-25 51 35, i942-09-25 46 30 A temp/dew of 51/35? Probably sleet or graupel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 A temp/dew of 51/35? Probably sleet or graupel? KMDW 041253Z 25011KT 8SM -SNRA SCT013 SCT021 OVC026 03/00 A2971 DZB26E35RAB35SNB35 SLP066 P0000 T00330000 It was 38/32 at the time. I think Ginxy was posting the earliest date (in 1928) with a high/low of 51/35. Also at Rockford: KRFD 041154Z 23009KT 4SM -RASN BR BKN010 OVC023 02/00 A2971 AO2 RAB06 SLP063 P0001 60001 70001 T00170000 10044 20017 57010 Columbus, OH too: KCMH 041351Z 28016G21KT 7SM -SN BKN026 BKN039 OVC075 04/00 A2980 AO2 WSHFT 1325 RAB03E26SNB47 SLP094 P0000 T00390000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 For Scooter..congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 This is better. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IHGDP0Gvs3Q Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Just enjoying Fall on Winni. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 This was the best boat ever. Not only is the name awesome, but there were cases and empty cans of PBR everywhere lol. You can see some on the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 In shorts there today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Deep fall and heat on here. High was 48.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 That was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Turned on the heat Saturday evening. Was raw in the house. Temp had dropped to 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Man home heating oil is 2.77/gal here at home. Downfall economy having a say. Thanks to the towns in nrn MA not wanting a natural gas pipeline...for the first time in years it may be cheaper to heat home with oil, especially if we have a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 16, 2014 Author Share Posted October 16, 2014 So my professor told us not to worry about taking notes on Tuesday during the review for the midterm because she would post the review online. She never posted it, and when we all ask her about it, she basically says too bad and makes us all take the midterm. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Always take notes..even when they tell you not to..It was a test before the test..Sounds like a fail..maybe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 16, 2014 Author Share Posted October 16, 2014 Always take notes..even when they tell you not to..It was a test before the test..Sounds like a fail..maybe 2 Lol I actually did well on the test, I just kind of figured that was beside the point. I guess your right though. Probably should have taken notes regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Lol I actually did well on the test, I just kind of figured that was beside the point. I guess your right though. Probably should have taken notes regardless She was seeing who was the conscientious student and who wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Seems the point on Cpc was missed. It's not the forecast that is criticized. They haven't made a forecast. They've issued probabilities and that's not a forecast. They don't commit to anything so can verify no matter what happens. It's a joke Perhaps the state of the science in Long Range Forecasting is such that all that can be confidently issued is probabilities, and that deterministic long range forecasting is not realistically possible (or responsible) at this point. Let's just say the weekly Farmers Almanac forecasts aren't science . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Perhaps the state of the science in Long Range Forecasting is such that all that can be confidently issued is probabilities, and that deterministic long range forecasting is not realistically possible (or responsible) at this point. Let's just say the weekly Farmers Almanac forecasts aren't science . The public doesn't understand probabilities and don't want to see that. They generally want something that is quantifiable. The majority don't want to see say a 10% chance of 12 inches of snow, 30% of 6 and 90% of 1 inch. They want to know how much is going to fall by the time the storm is over. It's just human nature. All probabilities do is show uncertainty from the forecaster and create confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The public doesn't understand probabilities and don't want to see that. They generally want something that is quantifiable. The majority don't want to see say a 10% chance of 12 inches of snow, 30% of 6 and 90% of 1 inch. They want to know how much is going to fall by the time the storm is over. It's just human nature. All probabilities do is show uncertainty from the forecaster and create confusion Thankfully the public has basically no use for a seasonal forecast. The forecast looks fine - I don't know why you're having such a meltdown about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Thankfully the public has basically no use for a seasonal forecast. The forecast looks fine - I don't know why you're having such a meltdown about it. What do you mean they have no use for it? I don't follow. Of course they want to know what each season holds from a forecast perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The public doesn't understand probabilities and don't want to see that. They generally want something that is quantifiable. The majority don't want to see say a 10% chance of 12 inches of snow, 30% of 6 and 90% of 1 inch. They want to know how much is going to fall by the time the storm is over. It's just human nature. All probabilities do is show uncertainty from the forecaster and create confusion This is where you just can't go in and give the public what they want. They don't understand probabilities...but they also don't understand how this science works and many don't understand it's an imperfect science. In the end probabilistic forecasting is probably the best way to go, especially with long-range forecasting b/c with long range forecasting not only can issuing something "precise" (like +2 or -1 to -2) be very difficult but it's really impossible to know for sure that "one area" will see something in that range exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Thankfully the public has basically no use for a seasonal forecast. The forecast looks fine - I don't know why you're having such a meltdown about it. I would have to disagree here to an extent...I think more and more people are becoming interested in seasonal forecasting. I know I get asked a ton by people "how's this winter looking" or "how's this summer looking". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 This is where you just can't go in and give the public what they want. They don't understand probabilities...but they also don't understand how this science works and many don't understand it's an imperfect science. In the end probabilistic forecasting is probably the best way to go, especially with long-range forecasting b/c with long range forecasting not only can issuing something "precise" (like +2 or -1 to -2) be very difficult but it's really impossible to know for sure that "one area" will see something in that range exactly. But that's exactky the point. In order to quantify weather something is right or wrong you need to have finite numbers. Probabilities are a way to snake out of issuing something concrete that can be judged and scrutinized and graded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 But that's exactky the point. In order to quantify weather something is right or wrong you need to have finite numbers. Probabilities are a way to snake out of issuing something concrete that can be judged and scrutinized and graded. But there is more to things whether it's just right or wrong, especially when you're talking about a field where the margin of error can be fairly high. the issuance of probabilities gives exactly what the word indicates...the probability of an occurrence. I will say though, I don't exactly understand what is meant by the probabilities NOAA issued...for example, they have us >40% warmer...does that mean there is >40% chance of being warmer than normal or we will be 40% warmer than normal? Anyways, what you can do is say something like, there is a 70% chance of being colder than average...this indicates there is a pretty decent likelihood of being colder than average...however, say it ended up closer to normal or slightly above...you can still say the forecast was incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Full Definition of FORECAST. transitive verb. 1 a : to calculate or predict (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data; especially : to predict (weather conditions) on the basis of correlated meteorological observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 What do you mean they have no use for it? I don't follow. Of course they want to know what each season holds from a forecast perspective Unless you're a niche user (business, energy company, etc.) there's really no use that the average person would have for a seasonal forecast. People may have a passing interest in it but they're not going to change plans or do any different based on it. Why you're having such a temper tantrum over the CPC forecast is beyond me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Unless you're a niche user (business, energy company, etc.) there's really no use that the average person would have for a seasonal forecast. People may have a passing interest in it but they're not going to change plans or do any different based on it. Why you're having such a temper tantrum over the CPC forecast is beyond me lol Oh ok, I see what you're saying now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Unless you're a niche user (business, energy company, etc.) there's really no use that the average person would have for a seasonal forecast. People may have a passing interest in it but they're not going to change plans or do any different based on it. Why you're having such a temper tantrum over the CPC forecast is beyond me lol Then why does your station issue a winter forecast each autumn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I'm not sure how those seasonal forecasts that say "cold & snowy" do any good either...in fact those are worse than any probability forecast. Using adjectives to give a seasonal forecast is just as useless if you want to grade it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I'm not sure how those seasonal forecasts that say "cold & snowy" do any good either...in fact those are worse than any probability forecast. Using adjectives to give a seasonal forecast is just as useless if you want to grade it. You mean Farmer's Almanac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Thankfully the public has basically no use for a seasonal forecast. . exactly why the Met community meltdowns and blogs over crazy hyped up kids posting seasonal catastrophic winters needs to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.