Deck Pic Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 This is a work in progress..feel free to add and I will edit..times are approximate...if you have sources that are much faster, let us know..no model should be excluded other than tropical..part of being a model addict is looking at every single model run possible... 0z CMC ENS - 12:20am 0z Euro - 12:45am 3z SREF - 2:15am 0z Euro ENS - 2:40am 6z NAM - 2:45am 6z GFS - 4:20am 6z GEFS - 5:40am 6z RGEM - 3:15am 9z SREF - 8:15am 12z NAM - 8:45am 12z RGEM - 9:15am 12z GFS - 10:20am 12z CMC - 11:15am 12 UKMET - 11:40am 12 GEFS - 11:40am 12 CMC ENS - 12:20pm 12z Euro - 12:45pm 15z SREF - 2:15pm 12z Euro ENS - 2:40pm 18z NAM - 2:45pm 18z RGEM - 3:15pm 18z GFS - 4:20pm 18z GEFS - 5:40pm 21z SREF - 8:15pm 0z NAM - 8:45pm 0z RGEM - 9:15pm 0z GFS - 10:20pm 0z CMC- 11:15pm 0z UKMET - 11:40pm 0z GEFS - 11:40pm HRRR - every hour RAP - every hour Hi Res NAM - 10 minutes after NAM JMA?? Navgem? NAEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 11, 2014 Author Share Posted September 11, 2014 The 1-2pm and 6-8pm time periods are excruciating...does anyone have any models that come out during this time period other than the shorter range hourlies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Lol. I didn't see the Navy model listed. Maybe I missed it? Edit: Also, where the heck is the Brazilian? Edit 2: I see you've added Navgem. Whew! I feel so much better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 11, 2014 Author Share Posted September 11, 2014 Lol. I didn't see the Navy model listed. Maybe I missed it? Edit: Also, where the heck is the Brazilian? Edit 2: I see you've added Navgem. Whew! I feel so much better now. The brazilian is a long range model, no?...I think the Koreans have a model too, the KMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 The brazilian is a long range model, no?...I think the Koreans have a model too, the KMA? I don't know any details about it. I was mainly being silly. It definitely has a long range component. I know because JB never seems to fail to tweet the meteogram for a major U.S. city whenever it shows snow several months in advance. Yeah, KMA. You usually have to turn your screen upside down to easily read the US portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 The 1-2pm and 6-8pm time periods are excruciating...does anyone have any models that come out during this time period other than the shorter range hourlies? good thread the 1-2 is not bad with the euro coming out but the 6-8 is just brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Links to each....free and premo should be posted as well, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 LOL, good thread. The real pain is DST. It's always better once we get those "EARLY" updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 HRRR goes operational on the 31st. Extra hugging this winter if we ever get a short term snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 We need a 1hr high res model that runs every 2 minutes. Good for tracking the unmodeled n md death band. We all know it's going to happen but not being modeled correctly is bothersome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 good thread the 1-2 is not bad with the euro coming out but the 6-8 is just brutal and remember when the Euro only came out once a day......lotta this ------> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 and remember when the Euro only came out once a day......lotta this ------> It's weird but harmless affliction. And it keeps getting worse as tech gets better. I had every intention of cancelling my Wxbell this summer...but nooo...I started tracking lr summer patterns. We're a weird bunch here but we all share the affliction so it feels "normal". It's like a support group for people who are addicted to something that at the very worst causes lack of sleep. Thank god my wife thinks it's fun. Just looking at Matt's list makes me laugh at the madness we all share. WTF is wrong with us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 In between runs is a sad time. Models could be disproving your theory/forecast and you have to wait hours to feel the magnitude of the virtual face-slap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Related to this, I really wish standard time were all year round. Sigh. Now, I do enjoy the extra daylight in the evening from DST since I like to walk then. However, I'd gladly sacrifice my evening walking opportunities just to be able to see the models one hour early all year! Let's face it. Weather models are king for the life of a wx hobbyist. Unless there were a way for me to just go by GMT all of the time and ignore the silly time changes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 DST is brutal especially in March when there often is something to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Life would be so much easier if they would invent an op model that nails a 10 day forecast. But if that happened we would just shift our focus to d10-20 model spray so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Life would be so much easier if they would invent an op model that nails a 10 day forecast. But if that happened we would just shift our focus to d10-20 model spray so... Actually, if there were a model that were to somehow be perfect way into the future in predicting wx, indices, or whatever, I think following wx could actually become pretty boring for me. One of the things that makes it so interesting for me is its unpredictability. Trying to make my own predictions and seeing how they verify is often a lot of fun. Example: how will ENSO/PDO/NAO be this winter? Look at all of the discussions this generates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Actually, if there were a model that were to somehow be perfect way into the future in predicting wx, indices, or whatever, I think following wx could actually become pretty boring for me. One of the things that makes it so interesting for me is its unpredictability. Trying to make my own predictions and seeing how they verify is often a lot of fun. Example: how will ENSO/PDO/NAO be this winter?Look at all of the discussions this generates. Luckily, that's physically impossible because you can never know the exact location of any molecule/parcel/etc while it's in motion...so we'll always be off, and we'll always deal with model chaos. Quantum Mechanics ftw. If we're able to develop quantum-based computation systems, we'll probably be able to forecast a few months in advance with reasonable accuracy, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Luckily, that's physically impossible because you can never know the exact location of any molecule/parcel/etc while it's in motion...so we'll always be off. Quantum Mechanics ftw. You see, there's where you're wrong. The model I'm talking about will place the molecules exactly where it wants. And move them where it wants. And some 15 year old at Rockville HS will hack it for snow days. Luckily, I live around the corner from there so I will get buried while DC gets rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 You see, there's where you're wrong. The model I'm talking about will place the molecules exactly where it wants. And move them where it wants. And some 15 year old at Rockville HS will hack it for snow days. Luckily, I live around the corner from there so I will get buried while DC gets rain. Haha. Or accidentally recreate the infamous MoCo snow hole of 2011-2013. I'm pretty sure no model will solve the DC enigma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Luckily, that's physically impossible because you can never know the exact location of any molecule/parcel/etc while it's in motion...so we'll always be off, and we'll always deal with model chaos. Quantum Mechanics ftw. If we're able to develop quantum-based computation systems, we'll probably be able to forecast a few months in advance with reasonable accuracy, though. I'm not sure that even the exponential increase in computing capacity with a quantum system could completely account for chaos. The sensors used to insert data into the model would get better, and the system could handle greater amounts of data, but I think that given chaos and the limitations of the human factor that accurate modeling would still be limited to within days to weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I will have the Irish model ready soon. It will bring plenty of snow whenever I input the numbers. Look for HECS every day in December starting 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Wow! I am not alone. I am among... friends. Life is good. Now fill in the 6-8 time period and life will be GREAT! Sigh. I now slink back into my corner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 LOL, good thread. The real pain is DST. It's always better once we get those "EARLY" updates. This is the killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 I want to have a 18-20 hour period where I am without a model for no more than 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 I want to have a 18-20 hour period where I am without a model for no more than 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 I want to have a 18-20 hour period where I am without a model for no more than 15 minutes. I heard Tyson Beckford is moving in, so your dreams have come true . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 This is a work in progress..feel free to add and I will edit..times are approximate...if you have sources that are much faster, let us know..no model should be excluded other than tropical..part of being a model addict is looking at every single model run possible... 0z CMC ENS - 12:20am 0z Euro - 12:45am 3z SREF - 2:15am 0z Euro ENS - 2:40am 6z NAM - 2:45am 6z GFS - 4:20am 6z GEFS - 5:40am 6z RGEM - 3:15am 9z SREF - 8:15am 12z NAM - 8:45am 12z RGEM - 9:15am 12z GFS - 10:20am 12z CMC - 11:15am 12 UKMET - 11:40am 12 GEFS - 11:40am 12 CMC ENS - 12:20pm 12z Euro - 12:45pm 15z SREF - 2:15pm 12z Euro ENS - 2:40pm 18z NAM - 2:45pm 18z RGEM - 3:15pm 18z GFS - 4:20pm 18z GEFS - 5:40pm 21z SREF - 8:15pm 0z NAM - 8:45pm 0z RGEM - 9:15pm 0z GFS - 10:20pm 0z CMC- 11:15pm 0z UKMET - 11:40pm 0z GEFS - 11:40pm HRRR - every hour RAP - every hour Hi Res NAM - 10 minutes after NAM JMA?? Navgem? NAEFS? You forgot this puppy.. FIM http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 When are we going to get an hourly NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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