Hurricane Edouard

[Eskimo Joe]

000

WTNT41 KNHC 111439

TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014

1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

Satellite imagery and a recent ASCAT-B overpass indicate that the

low pressure area over the eastern Atlantic has a well-defined

circulation and organized convective banding near the center. Thus,

advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Six. The

initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data

and the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 310/12. A low-/mid-level ridge north of the

cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward to

northwestward for the next 3-4 days. After that, the track

guidance forecasts the system to turn generally northward between

the ridge and a large mid-/upper-level low south of Bermuda. There

is a fair amount of spread in the guidance on where this turn should

occur, with the extremes being the Canadian model on the east near

45W and the ECMWF model on the west near 55W. The official forecast

lies close to the model consensus in expecting a more northerly

motion between 51W-53W. The forecast track keeps the cyclone well

away from land for the next 5 days.

The depression is currently in an environment of light vertical

wind shear. The large-scale models forecast some increase

in southerly shear after 24 hours, which should persist through the

end of the forecast period. Despite the shear, the intensity

guidance forecasts slow but steady strengthening. The official

forecast follows this scenario and is a blend of the SHIPS model and

the intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 16.2N 37.1W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 12/0000Z 17.1N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 12/1200Z 18.2N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 13/0000Z 19.3N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

48H 13/1200Z 20.5N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

72H 14/1200Z 23.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

96H 15/1200Z 26.5N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

120H 16/1200Z 29.0N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$

Forecaster Beven

[IsentropicLift]

Fish, although the 00z ECMWF keeps TD #6 under fairly strong ridging through at least the next 5-7 days before the trough picks it up east of Beremuda. Depending on the amplitutude of this troughing, Bermuda could be in play.

[GaWx]

Fish, although the 00z ECMWF keeps TD #6 under fairly strong ridging through at least the next 5-7 days before the trough picks it up east of Beremuda. Depending on the amplitutude of this troughing, Bermuda could be in play.

It looks very fishy to me, too. However, it should still be interesting to track. I wonder if we get a major out of this. Opinions? How strong this gets could also have a rather significant impact on our in-house tropical contest.

[icebreaker5221]

There's certainly a possibility that TD6 misses the shortwave in the 5-7 day range, especially if it tracks further south along the northern fringe of the subtropical ridge.  If so, there's also a chance of it being sent back south again and festering for a very long time.  Nadine (2012) anyone?

 

 

A couple of GEFS members, namely 8, 14 and 17 seem to be picking up on this idea.  Anyway, it probably won't happen but at least it's something to watch for. 

 

[hurricaneman]

This is now Edouard

[Boston Bulldog]

Ed now a 80mph Hurricane per 11am advisory. An intermittent eye has been apparent on both satellite and infrared imagery.

[Srain]

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

Edouard's inner core convective pattern has continued to improve
since the previous advisory, with a ring of deep convection
surrounding a brief appearance of a 20 nmi diameter eye around 1200
UTC. Since that time, the eye has become cloud-covered with cirrus
from a strong convective burst in the western eyewall. A 0924 UTC
Windsat microwave overpass revealed good low-level structure and a
15-20 nmi diameter eye. Satellite intensity estimates are a
consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT values
have been T4.4/75 kt for the past few hours. However, due to the
eye recently becoming cloud-filled, the initial intensity is only
being increased to 70 kt, which still makes Edouard the fourth
hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic season.

Edouard has made slight wobble to the right, possibly due to the
formation of the eye, but a 12-hour-average yields a motion of about
305/14 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge along 30N-32N latitude is
expected to steer the hurricane northwestward today, followed by a
turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, the cyclone
is expected to accelerate to the northeast ahead of a strong
mid-tropospheric trough that is forecast to move off of the U.S.
east coast. By Days 4 and 5, Edouard is expected to get caught up
into the strong mid-latitude westerlies and turn toward the
east-northeast. The NHC model guidance is in excellent on this
developing steering pattern, and the official forecast closely
follows the previous forecast track and the consensus model TVCA.

Given the well-developed structure noted in the Windsat imagery, a
very favorable poleward outflow pattern forecast to develop by all
of the models, and anomalously warm SSTs of 29.5C ahead of the
cyclone, there appears to be no physical reason why Edouard should
not continue to strengthen and eventually become a major hurricane
over the next 2 days or so. The only inhibiting factor could be the
dry mid-level air surrounding the cyclone, and that is the only
reason why rapid intensification is not being forecast at this
time. By Day 4 and beyond, Edouard will be moving over sub-24C SSTs
and encountering vertical wind shear greater than 25 kt, which is
expected to induce significant weakening. By Day 5, Edouard is
forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone as the system
becomes embedded within the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The
official intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous
forecast and the SHIPS model, except that the timing of the peak
intensity has been moved forward by 24 hours, in order to coincide
with the time that Edouard will be over the warmest water and in the
lowest shear conditions.

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is currently conducting a research
mission into Edouard.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 24.7N  50.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  15/0000Z 25.8N  52.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
24H  15/1200Z 27.1N  54.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  16/0000Z 28.5N  56.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  16/1200Z 30.1N  56.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  17/1200Z 34.5N  54.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  18/1200Z 39.4N  47.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 41.7N  38.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart


 

[Amped]

Last 3 hrs were interesting, a core and eye seemed to appear rather fast.

 

 

 

Anyone know how deep the Euro makes this. Looks like it has a shot at becoming a major.

[GaWx]

Last 3 hrs were interesting, a core and eye seemed to appear rather fast.

 

eduard_avn_lalo-animated.gif

 

 

Anyone know how deep the Euro makes this. Looks like it has a shot at becoming a major.

 

 I think the GFS deserves some credit.

[WxFreak11]

Beautiful looking storm! Definitely has a chance to become a major

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Excellent swell event on the way or the east coast! The stronger he gets the bigger the swell on the way.

I love when people call a storm a fish and forget that people die in rip currents. I don't mean I love that people die just the fact that no major cane has no impacts as they send the whole ocean into motion

[apm]

Excellent swell event on the way or the east coast! The stronger he gets the bigger the swell on the way.

I love when people call a storm a fish and forget that people die in rip currents. I don't mean I love that people die just the fact that no major cane has no impacts as they send the whole ocean into motion

Certainly taking the perfect trajectory for you, and expanding nicely as well. Wonder how long it will take to get there.

[icebreaker5221]

Certainly taking the perfect trajectory for you, and expanding nicely as well. Wonder how long it will take to get there.

 

There are models for this.  Per WaveWatch 3, best swell would be Wed night.

 

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ww3_troplant∏=ofsigwv&dtg=2014091506&set=SeaState

[Superstorm93]

Data from two reconnaissance missions being conducted in Hurricane Eduard indicates that the storm is likely very close to becoming a Major Hurricane

 

 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Impressive:

 

[Amped]

Impressive:

 

Looks a little bit annular.

[icebreaker5221]

Looks a little bit annular.

 

SSMIS says not even close.

 

This is the most symmetric Edouard has been so far, so I'll give you that...

 

[Floydbuster]

Reminds me a bit of Hurricane Helene back in September 2006. Another snoozefest year that was. Although Ernesto was exciting when it became a hurricane in the Caribbean that one day from 5am till about 11am.

[joey2002]

There are models for this.  Per WaveWatch 3, best swell would be Wed night.

 

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ww3_troplant∏=ofsigwv&dtg=2014091506&set=SeaState

 

How many hurricane swells have hit on Wednesday/Thursday this year?  

[GaWx]

It looks like they may finally designate this as a major (100 knots needed) at the next advisory per best track data thus breaking the long Atlantic basin drought.

[Kory]

It looks like they may finally designate this as a major (100 knots needed) at the next advisory per best track data thus breaking the long Atlantic basin drought.

It's a official...he's a major. First time since October 25, 2012.

[Juliancolton]

At 5 am the NHC remarked on the lack of high cloud tops and a nonuniform eyewall... what changed?

[wxmeddler]

So the Tropical Atlantic recon database has been undergoing some MAJOR upgrades of recent, it now includes re-dissemination of NOAA P3 Radar images from the AOC (.jpg) and ABXT sondes. Not all of it live on Google Earth yet but accessible via the website. Apparently they also have HS3 sonde data (Haven't seen it yet.)

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

[wxmeddler]

Actually seeing a bit of history this morning, it appears that the first "Coyote" UAV has been dropped inside Edouard. That's why the P-3 is going loops in the eye, to keep within transmission range.

[wxmeddler]

Hot. Clear eye, strong eyewall.

Credit: NOAA-AOC

Time: 2014/09/16 - 15:13:17z

Location: 31° 0.7'N , -57°47.5' W

[Weathergun]

Per NHC, first major hurricane in the Atlantic since Sandy:

 

[Quakertown needs snow]

.

[icebreaker5221]

 

[IsentropicLift]

Just one time I want to see one of these systems come back around and strike land.

[GaWx]

Just one time I want to see one of these systems come back around and strike land.

 

 In all of the years going back to 1851, the best example of this would be Ginger of 1971:

 

 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1971/GINGER/track.gif

 

 

Kyle of 2002 would only be a very minor version of this imo:

 

 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2002/KYLE/track.gif

 

 

Ivan of 2004 would be about the only other example:

 

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/IVAN/track.gif