NaoPos Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I'm not real good with these things, but I know an x class flare earth directed can be disruptive. Sorry if this is in the wrong thread : X-FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected a powerful X1.6-class solar flare (Sept. 10 @ 17:46 UT). The source was active sunspot AR2158, which is directly facing Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash: http://spaceweather.com Discuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Got to wait and see if we have an Earth direct CME in order to know if we will get an awesome aurora show or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 10, 2014 Author Share Posted September 10, 2014 Got to wait and see if we have an Earth direct CME in order to know if we will get an awesome aurora show or not. more on it : "Initial information suggests that CME is likely associated with this event, but further analysis is underway at this time," the National Weather Service's Space Weather Prediction Center reported on its Facebook page. http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/solar-storm-warning-sun-shoots-x-flare-outburst-earth-n200321 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Got to wait and see if we have an Earth direct CME in order to know if we will get an awesome aurora show or not. My guess is that there was a CME involved, it was a fairly long burst, not a x-ray spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 10, 2014 Author Share Posted September 10, 2014 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Shame the LASCO imagery was offline for most of the afternoon, but it's scheduled to resume updates in the next few minutes. Full-halo CME seems extremely likely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I will have the camera ready for when this thing hits . The downside is the amount of moonlight there will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 How does this CME compare to previous events? Without context, it's impossible to become concerned or excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 How does this CME compare to previous events? Without context, it's challenging to become concerned or excited. No CME confirmed yet... the flare itself and parent active region are nothing unprecedented (not even in the top-10 x-ray events of the solar cycle). What's noteworthy is the geoeffectiveness of the sunspot. Any CME will most likely be squarely aimed at us. Even so, nothing unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 11, 2014 Author Share Posted September 11, 2014 How long does it take to identify if a CME was released? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 A geoeffective CME has been confirmed, and it looks like a spicy one. Good time of year for aurora, too. Should be a nice show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 When will this aurora peak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 When will this aurora peak? The SWPC model calls for peak solar winds sometime Friday night, but given the high speed/inherent uncertainty of the CME, the solar storm could strike at any point between tomorrow morning and Saturday night I would think. Unfortunately, it looks to me like the bulk of the plasma is headed north of our planet, which should prevent any historical aurora shows. Still on track to be the best event in a couple years, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 11, 2014 Author Share Posted September 11, 2014 "Later, however, Young sent Sky & Telescope an update: the CME's initial velocity was less than initially thought, about 875 miles (1,400 km) per second. Therefore, the shock front now crossing interplanetary space should reach Earth on Friday at about 12h Universal Time (5 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time). The SWPC's predicted geomagnetic disturbance is G3, a medium-intensity level that could trigger auroras over locations roughly northward of latitude 45° north (Oregon, Illinois, New England, and northern Europe). - See more at: http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/observing-news/powerful-solar-flare-091020143/#sthash.GIwuSUlZ.dpuf" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 That CME looks pretty darn good... certainly better than all the ones over the past few years that the media picked up. I think this could be a good show for a lot of people. Camera battery is on the charger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I am trying tonight for the first CME and tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 For anyone interested, here's a hotlinked Kp index graph: And here's a map showing the minimum Kp index usually required for naked-eye aurora activity at a given location: My guess is we top out around Kp 7, which would still be impressive, and probably sufficient for folks as far south as Long Island, Kansas City, Crater Lake, etc. to see auroral hues along the northern horizon (especially when aided by a camera). The usual suspects (northern Plains, UP of Michigan, Mt. Washington) will do well in a Kp 6 or 7 event. Now we just have to hope there's sufficient geomagnetic storming, and it arrives during the nighttime, and the weather is clear, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisf97212 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 A geoeffective CME has been confirmed, and it looks like a spicy one. Good time of year for aurora, too. Should be a nice show. Except for the nearly full moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Except for the nearly full moon. Beyond that the first thing is getting the clouds out of here in VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I wonder if a few people on this board will see the aurora soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I wonder if a few people on this board will see the aurora soon. Unfortunately I tried to find a spot in my area (northern VT) with some clearing but we are screwed and have low clouds locked in for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Kp is only at a 5 and the full moon is killing what is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Tonight may be the better night. CME arrived about an hour ago. Let's hope for some big kp and low bz numbers. Yes, the moon is killing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 For anyone interested, here's a hotlinked Kp index graph: And here's a map showing the minimum Kp index usually required for naked-eye aurora activity at a given location: Kp up to 6 now for the first time with this event. Aurora should be better tonight than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Kp up to 6 now for the first time with this event. Aurora should be better tonight than last night. Down to 5 again per http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wingkp/wingkp_list.txt and it seems like solar winds are losing momentum. Not seeing any noteworthy reports from the dark side of the earth, save the usual suspects like Iceland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Anyone see anything tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 NLights were visible here at 8:45pm. North horizon was a dull green then for a short while curtains of color to 45 degrees above the NE horizon. Dissipated within 5 minutes so nothing out there at 9:15 east time from my vantage point in CNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Until the Bz tips south again, we're effectively capped... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Proton density has fallen the past half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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