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Hurricane Odile


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The first flight left for Tijuana with 44 passengers aboard. The Mexican government on Monday said damage from the tropical storm that struck Sunday and Monday had stranded some 30,000 tourists, including 26,000 foreign visitors, in Los Cabos. Odile was downgraded to a tropical storm an is expected to be reduced to a tropical depression by Wednesday.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/hurricane-odile-mexico-airlifts-stranded-tourists-los-cabos-n204776

 

 30,000/44 -1= 681 more flights before all the tourist get out of there. Hopefully, Josh has a snickers or two.

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EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
715 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...VALID 12Z WED SEP 17 2014 - 12Z THU SEP 18 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
LARGE SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK AREAS WERE MAINTAINED ON THE LATEST
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY
THIS PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF ODILE AND WELL TO
THE EAST OF THIS CIRCULATION IN THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS
THAT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN CA/SOUTHERN NV---EASTWARD INTO
AZ---NM AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  OBSERVED PW VALUES ACROSS
THESE AREAS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE THE 99 PERCENTILE FOR
SEPTEMBER---WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD TO THESE VALUES.  THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ---SOUTHERN
NM---LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS THESE AREAS.  FARTHER TO
THE EAST FROM THESE AREAS--THERE IS MORE MODEL SPREAD WITH HOW
QUICKLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE MORE EMPHATIC ACROSS THIS AREA---BUT STILL
HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT NORTH-SOUTH DIFFERENCES WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE AXES.  CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE--BUT WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED HIGH PW AXIS AND MODEL FORECASTS OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE
MAXIMUM IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS---FAVOR THE HI RES IDEA OF SPREADING
HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EASTWARD QUICKER.
WHILE MODELS DO NOT DEPICT MUCH PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS FROM SOUTHERN CA INTO SOUTHERN NV
AND NW AZ---SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY AGAIN ACROSS THESE
AREAS--WITH LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

 

 

avn-animated.gif


 

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From Josh on FB

 

Greetings from San Diego, California. Steve and I just crossed back into the USA following quite an odyssey to get out of Cabo San Lucas (via La Paz and Tijuana). Cabo was devastated by ferocious Hurricane Odile, with the infrastructure smashed and the airport destroyed. A big subplot is the plight of thousands of American citizens trapped in Los Cabos and La Paz. We took this pic when we finally realized we'd be getting out of there. (Excuse our grubby appearances after sleeping on the airport-terminal floor overnight.) Now our job is to get the story out-- after two days with no connection to the outside world. (Thanks for the messages of concern.  )

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From Josh on FB

 

Greetings from San Diego, California. Steve and I just crossed back into the USA following quite an odyssey to get out of Cabo San Lucas (via La Paz and Tijuana). Cabo was devastated by ferocious Hurricane Odile, with the infrastructure smashed and the airport destroyed. A big subplot is the plight of thousands of American citizens trapped in Los Cabos and La Paz. We took this pic when we finally realized we'd be getting out of there. (Excuse our grubby appearances after sleeping on the airport-terminal floor overnight.) Now our job is to get the story out-- after two days with no connection to the outside world. (Thanks for the messages of concern.  )

Considering the impact, there has been embarrassingly low media coverage on this storm. If a storm like it were to hit the US...

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The qpf forecasts in parts of AZ especially were way overblown- they were handing out sandbags in Tucson- they got only about .1. Cantore looked perplexed standing there with not one drop of rain falling.

I don't think overplaying such an event is that surprising.   Most of the bigger rain events with tropical systems even in the Southwest often have mini jet streaks with them.  I thought the same problem might occur in Texas but near Austin got an organized MCS to set up over them.  With so much moisture and weak upper level flow, I guess a stationary or slow moving small scale MCS is no surprise.  The problem is that with no real boundary to focus convection,  the scale becomes smaller and it's harder to figure out where the convection might focus.  As I posted elsewhere last night, glad I'm retired.  Forecasting such systems are tough. 

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The qpf forecasts in parts of AZ especially were way overblown- they were handing out sandbags in Tucson- they got only about .1. Cantore looked perplexed standing there with not one drop of rain falling.

[/quote

You wouldn't want to say that to some living in Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties SE of Tucson today where flooding remains an issue after 2-5 inches ofr rain in the valleys. Had to circulation of Odile remained intact and followed the forecast track TUS would have been blitzed big time. However the mid level circulation decoupled and tracked across Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties where the heavy rains were leaving table scraps for TUS and PHX.

Steve

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  • 1 month later...

Josh has posted the hotel security camera footage from the hotel.  The first shot at :31 is amazing!

 

Thanks for posting it.  The second shot is amazeballz, too.  Watch it closely-- there are all kinds of cool details:  a flying chair, a large door launching from the entranceway like a missile, a sofa cushion swirling in a circle... It's nuts. Oh, and there's me reaching for my camera like a nut. :D

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Thanks for posting it.  The second shot is amazeballz, too.  Watch it closely-- there are all kinds of cool details:  a flying chair, a large door launching from the entranceway like a missile, a sofa cushion swirling in a circle... It's nuts. Oh, and there's me reaching for my camera like a nut. :D

 

 

I saw your MacBook pro get launched!  Then it looks like it started right back up ha.  That was insane, hope you got your sock on.

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I saw your MacBook pro get launched!  Then it looks like it started right back up ha.  That was insane, hope you got your sock on.

 

That was Steve, my cameraman. I'm the dude in black in the second shot. :D

 

The computer was destroyed and he never found his sock.  He wrapped his foot in duct tape instead.

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  • 5 weeks later...

Hey, everybody—I just released iCyclone's official Hurricane ODILE video from Cabo San Lucas—ground zero for this devastating storm. Check it out:

 

 

If you've ever wondered what it’s like to be inside a building while a severe hurricane tears it to pieces, wonder no more—just watch. If it seems bad before the calm eye arrives, just you wait until the backside. This video captures the terror thousands of residents and tourists across the city experienced that night, hiding under tables and in closets and bathrooms as the cyclone’s ferocious winds roared through. Nighttime darkness often hides a hurricane’s violence. Not this time.

 

This is probably my most-graphic video. I actually think it's more intense and more nuts than my Super Typhoon HAIYAN video, because this one really shows the violent energy of the cyclone up close. Many folks have said this is the scariest hurricane video they've seen—let me know what you think. 

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