Hurricane Odile

[forkyfork]

all those large glass windows

[IsentropicLift]

So Josh is gonna be there a while huh......

It wouldn't be a bad drive home to LA

[downeastnc]

It wouldn't be a bad drive home to LA

 

I would think the main road is most likely blocked by mudslides or bridges out etc etc, they are getting tons of rain in the higher terrain.....

[IsentropicLift]

Well that airport is gone, maybe they can take a ferry south to the mainland and fly home from there.

[Yellow Evan]

Well that airport is gone, maybe they can take a ferry south to the mainland and fly home from there.

 

Maybe Josh should just wait and see if 97E is a Baja threat and chase that if needed.

[Wannabehippie]

Has anyone heard from Josh lately? I know he was on the weather channel this AM via phone (I guess satellite phone, and it wasn't a great connection), but I was hoping he had more reports on damage in the area.

[Windspeed]

In the shortterm, the remnants of Sixteen-E will be a real nuisance to cleanup and relief efforts and bring further potential for heavy rains and flooding. Strong convection has persisted this afternoon and appears to be reorganizing the LLC that's going to pass very close to southern Baja before entering the Gulf of California. I wouldn't rule out this being reclassified. Either way, this system will bring gusty winds and heavy rain, prolonging the flood threat over the southern peninsula.

THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E LOCATED NEAR 19N110W ARE MOVING NE 15
KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS SLOWLY BECOMING
ABSORBED IN THE BROAD MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF ODILE. IT WILL
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHERE IT WILL APPROACH THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.

[wxmx]

If Josh can get to La Paz, then that's his ticket out.

[Hvward]

This one shows what it did to the locals.

 

[aslkahuna]

Getting more concerned about the inland Flood potential across Southern Arizona/Southern New Mexico/Mexico into Texas and on NE into the Southern Plains and Mid West. Odile moisture as well as the right of guidance track and a long fetch tropical connection from the monsoonal trough raises the flood potential and no real front to sweep the very high PW's out into early next week. I believe the QPF may well be under estimated and some potential for a flood event as witnessed in 1994 with EPAC Hurricane Rosa may not be out of the realm of possibilities with the current upper air pattern expect this week.

p168i-9.gif

Main flood threat appears this time to be in SE AZ and SW NM based upon track forecasts. Rosa in 1994 tracked much further east with the remnant low moving into the TX Bir Bend. Thus that remnant not only brought in EPAC moisture but was able to tap GOM moisture.

Steve

[Jackstraw]

Was looking at this also.  Similar to last week with Norbert's moisture.  Granted the air mass over the Midwest last week was already saturated with Gulf moisture and the low that came down from Canada was anomalous to say the least, the GFS is forecasting a similar setup for the Midwest and Great Lakes.  There were spots in Iowa that recorded over 10 inches of rain in 24 hrs with the last Baja runner. I agree with Srain on the '94 analogy. There is another strong trough forecast to drop down with forecast temps and PWATS this upcoming weekend steadily rising.  A perfect setup for the pocket of moisture from Odile to ride NE.  With this being a much stronger storm and the addition of and already deep tropical air mass over NE Mexico being advected into the complex, not to mention 16e rotating into the flow, we could see some extremely heavy rain over the mid to upper Mississippi valley.  I'd give a 60/40 shot at a major flood event occurring all the way NE.

[Zeromus-X]

I would think the opposite,  a lot of their problem is the ground cant hold the water and the rain runs off causing flash flooding issues. I would think the stuff that doesn't run off will quickly be absorbed by the ground or evaporate in the really dry airmass they have. I would think all the "rivers" and "streams" are back to normal, and the ground conditions will be as they were before last week as well.....that doesn't help them any though since its the rate at which it falls that creates the most issues.

 

I'm in Phoenix and we actually do still have quite a bit of water here.  Many of the roads still aren't cleaned up from the dirt that was washed into them, so I'm guessing that will be a big priority here tomorrow (to make sure the storm drains don't get clogged up).  But you can drive down major areas of Phoenix/Tempe/Mesa and still see big lakes on the side of the road, which is unheard of here.

[downeastnc]

I'm in Phoenix and we actually do still have quite a bit of water here.  Many of the roads still aren't cleaned up from the dirt that was washed into them, so I'm guessing that will be a big priority here tomorrow (to make sure the storm drains don't get clogged up).  But you can drive down major areas of Phoenix/Tempe/Mesa and still see big lakes on the side of the road, which is unheard of here.

 

Crazy I would have thought the ground out there soaked it right up or ran it off.... so are we going to track the impacts to the SW US in this thread or will there be one in the Central/West forum?

[tmagan]

The center of circulation is about to re-emerge over the Gulf of California, not that it means much.

[valkhorn]

The center of circulation is about to re-emerge over the Gulf of California, not that it means much.

 

It likely won't redevelop but if it's further north/east of the forecasted position then all that moisture could head closer to NM than Arizona.

[Srain]

A Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been issued for Days 1 to 3 across portions of Northern Mexico, Southern Arizona, Southern New Mexico and W Texas.

[dan11295]

https://twitter.com/RodrigoEBR has some pics of La Paz and San Jose del Cabo in particular. Significant damage in La Paz. From the feed it appears to be a lot of damage all along the Baja. Lack of power/phone/cell service is still hindering the flow of information out. Not sure if driving to La Paz is even an option as the road is likely blocked.

[ineedsnow]

Thats a ton of rain for that area

[Srain]

Odile remains well intact as it enters the Sea of Cortez.

[Zeromus-X]

That storm on the last radar loop is too close to be Polo but looks fairly significant all of a sudden.  Surprised there's still that much energy in that area.

[IsentropicLift]

The high-res 12z NAM is spitting out a max of 29.0" in far NW Mexico and a large swath of 8.0"+ in SE AZ and SW NM.

[tmagan]

One can argue before this is said and done that Odile will significantly affect more people than any E. Pacific hurricane.

[icebreaker5221]

That storm on the last radar loop is too close to be Polo but looks fairly significant all of a sudden.  Surprised there's still that much energy in that area.

 

That's the remnants of 16E.  Seems like deep convection made a comeback as all that moist SWerly flow began to rise orographically.

[Srain]

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...VALID 18Z TUE SEP 16 2014 - 00Z THU SEP 18 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SOUTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~
AN INCREASING HEAVY RAIN/POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED
THIS PERIOD AS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWS)
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ODILE. PW ANOMALIES OF 2-4.5
SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN -- NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR MID-SEPTEMBER --
ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
CA, FAR SOUTHERN NV, MUCH OF AZ, SOUTHERN NM, AND WESTERNMOST TX.
THERE ARE HINTS WITHIN THE 00Z AND 06Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES (USING THE 30%+ CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE AS A GUIDE) THAT THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREA OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE,
WHERE 25+ KTS OF 700 HPA INFLOW (PER RECENT GUIDANCE) COULD
ORGANIZE CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  THE EXPECTED
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW ANY CONVECTION WHICH BUILDS
WITHIN TOPOGRAPHY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND THE MOGOLLON RIM TO
MIGRATE OUTWARD TOWARDS VALLEY/DESERT FLOORS TODAY.  DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY, THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH SHOULD
CONFINE THE THREAT ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
OF AZ, POTENTIALLY LEAVING THE DESERT HIGH AND DRY.

THE BIG QUESTION -- OTHER THAN TRACK -- CONCERNS WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL MAXIMIZE EACH DAY.  SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST PLACES JUST
OUTSIDE ODILE'S OUTFLOW JET/CLOUD SHIELD NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND THE MOGOLLON RIM COULD BE THE MOST UNSTABLE AND
THAT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHERN NM COULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM OR MORE OF A LONGER DURATION FLOOD CONCERN RATHER THAN
A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN THROUGH TOMORROW.  CORE RAINFALL FROM SOME
PORTION OF ODILE'S CIRCULATION (MOST LIKELY AT 700 HPA AND 500
HPA) IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE AZ BORDER LATE TOMORROW.  AFTER
BRIEFINGS FROM SAB/NESDIS AND COORDINATION WITH OUR METWATCH DESK
AS WELL AS WESTERN REGION OFFICES (INCLUDING EPZ AND TWC), THE
SLIGHT RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE 15Z
ISSUANCE, WHILE THE MODERATE RISK WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE BURN
SCARS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NM.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4" ARE POSSIBLE HERE
WHERE A HEAVY RAIN BAND AND/OR CONVECTIVE CELLS MERGE AND/OR
TRAIN, WHICH WOULD APPROACH ANNUAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE REGION.  THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS COULD RIVAL THAT OF MONDAY SEPTEMBER 8 WHICH OCCURRED
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF NORBERT, THOUGH OCCUR OVER A LONGER TIME
INTERVAL.

 

 

[Stradivarious]

I did a road trip last May all over the West Texas Panhandle... North of big bend, and you couldn't but help notice these flood gauges all over ... On hills, up slopes... Places where there seems to be no possible way it could flood...short of something truly catastrophic... Like Noah's flood..

Look hard in this picture to see what I mean...does anybody know if these signs ever are useful? And for when?

[Srain]

I did a road trip last May all over the West Texas Panhandle... North of big bend, and you couldn't but help notice these flood gauges all over ... On hills, up slopes... Places where there seems to be no possible way it could flood...short of something truly catastrophic... Like Noah's flood..

Look hard in this picture to see what I mean...does anybody know if these signs ever are useful? And for when?

Some of those flood gauges likely were installed after the September 2008 flood event, if I recall correctly. That year brought a monsoon season that was a bit E not too different that what we have seen across New Mexico and West Texas this year. Also there was a major Region wide flood from April to June in 1957 as well as 1935.

[IsentropicLift]

[Ginx snewx]

Some of those flood gauges likely were installed after the September 2008 flood event, if I recall correctly. That year brought a monsoon season that was a bit E not too different that what we have seen across New Mexico and West Texas this year. Also there was a major Region wide flood from April to June in 1957 as well as 1935.

any word from Josh?

[Srain]

any word from Josh?

Not since yesterday morning, but that is not unusual for him after an intercept.

[Wannabehippie]

I did a road trip last May all over the West Texas Panhandle... North of big bend, and you couldn't but help notice these flood gauges all over ... On hills, up slopes... Places where there seems to be no possible way it could flood...short of something truly catastrophic... Like Noah's flood..

Look hard in this picture to see what I mean...does anybody know if these signs ever are useful? And for when?

Some of the flash floods can get up that high on the roads. The signs are to warn cars how high the flash flood waters are so they do not get stuck on the road during them.