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Hurricane Odile


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Getting more concerned about the inland Flood potential across Southern Arizona/Southern New Mexico/Mexico into Texas and on NE into the Southern Plains and Mid West. Odile moisture as well as the right of guidance track and a long fetch tropical connection from the monsoonal trough raises the flood potential and no real front to sweep the very high PW's out into early next week. I believe the QPF may well be under estimated and some potential for a flood event as witnessed in 1994 with EPAC Hurricane Rosa may not be out of the realm of possibilities with the current upper air pattern expect this week.

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I just chatted with Josh and he and is videographer Steve are OK. He asked me to thank all of those that have been following the Odile intercept and will likely check in later personally. It has been a long night that was filled with adrenaline, but it appears he got some good data. Congrats on another successful intercept Josh!

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Getting more concerned about the inland Flood potential across Southern Arizona/Southern New Mexico/Mexico into Texas and on NE into the Southern Plains and Mid West. Odile moisture as well as the right of guidance track and a long fetch tropical connection from the monsoonal trough raises the flood potential and no real front to sweep the very high PW's out into early next week. I believe the QPF may well be under estimated and some potential for a flood event as witnessed in 1994 with EPAC Hurricane Rosa may not be out of the realm of possibilities with the current upper air pattern expect this week.

 

Srain, are you thinking a flood event similar to '94 for the SW or do you think there is a chance that a similar flood event could setup somewhere in Texas, even potentially SE Texas?

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Unfortunately the ground has probably not recovered from last week's flooding. 

 

I would think the opposite,  a lot of their problem is the ground cant hold the water and the rain runs off causing flash flooding issues. I would think the stuff that doesn't run off will quickly be absorbed by the ground or evaporate in the really dry airmass they have. I would think all the "rivers" and "streams" are back to normal, and the ground conditions will be as they were before last week as well.....that doesn't help them any though since its the rate at which it falls that creates the most issues.

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