Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Hurricane Odile


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 234
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Tropicalanalyst13 post from earlier showed the pressure down to 922mb, but peak sfmr surface wind is only 97kt.

Which is probably attributable to the textbook eyewall replacement cycle currently underway. I'll caution that recon has only made a SE-NW pass so far, and not a SW-NE pass which may offer higher winds. Latest visible:

 

qJK1q2M.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some climo to consider:

 

 From Josh, major H hits on west coast of Mexico since 1949:

 

1957 No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt)

1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt)

1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt)

1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (~100 kt)

1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt)

1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt)

2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt)

2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt)

 

 From this list, hit dates were as follows: 8/27, 9/16, 10/1, 10/8, 10/14, 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, 10/27. So, we're a bit earlier than the prime month of Oct. However, the fact that the earliest hit Baja and the 2nd earliest was during an oncoming weak El Nino should be noted.

 

The real strongest (cat. 4-5) have hit mainly in late Oct.: 10/8, 10/22, 10/25, 10/27 

 

 Oncoming weak to moderate El Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits (Liza, Madeline, Kenna, and Lane). I believe with high confidence that we're in an oncoming weak to moderate El Nino. 1957's #10 hit during an oncoming strong El Nino.

 

Also worth nothing the super El Ninos (97 and 82) had two 95 knt landfall both which could have been 100 knts. I personally am not a fan of basing landfall intensity on climo, since the difference between 90 and 100 knts is small.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Which is probably attributable to the textbook eyewall replacement cycle currently underway. I'll caution that recon has only made a SE-NW pass so far, and not a SW-NE pass which may offer higher winds. Latest visible:

 

qJK1q2M.jpg

Yeah it does look like that. Corrected my post it was 99kt. Bigger eye means better chance for Josh to get in the eyewall since it is forecasted to come close to cabo and landfall on Isla Santa Margarita.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looks like pressures are falling with this pass. Also regarding the inland Flood potential, a Day 3 Slight Risk for excessive rainfall has been issued for Southern Arizona and will likely be shifted further E into Southern New Mexico and W Texas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 20:10Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)

Storm Number & Year: 15E in 2014

Storm Name: Odile (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 14

A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 19:51:40Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°56'N 108°43'W (20.9333N 108.7167W)

B. Center Fix Location: 153 miles (247 km) to the SSE (151°) from Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, México.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,447m (8,028ft) at 700mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 331° at 93kts (From the NNW at ~ 107.0mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 923mb (27.26 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Open in the northeast

M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)

M. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)

M. Outer Eye Diameter: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 700mb

O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 134kts (~ 154.2mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NE (39°) from the flight level center at 19:58:00Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WINDS 140 / 16 KT

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Josh probably knows this, but the radome in Cabo San Lucas has a great chase location on a hill with commanding views of the ocean and marina.  The automated weather station there also got excellent wind exposure during Norbert.  Hilltop chasing may offer its own perils, particularly flash flooding and related mudslides, high winds, and social isolation, but at least it avoids storm surge and likely results in great video.  You can check it out on Google maps; the automated weather station is here:

22°52'52"N 109°55'36"W 

An $1100/night super-luxury resort operates on this hilltop, but I'm sure you can find something more affordable nearby. 

 

Wind is already 38G52KT at 20:00 UTC, so the tropical storm has begun at the hills of Cabo San Lucas. 

 

PS: Bing offers far better aerial imagery than Google does in this area. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NHC has just issued an update statement, but all I got was nothing on the web site.

HURRICANE ODILE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014

345 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING

NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Josh probably knows this, but the radome in Cabo San Lucas has a great chase location on a hill with commanding views of the ocean and marina.  The automated weather station there also got excellent wind exposure during Norbert.  Hilltop chasing may offer its own perils, particularly flash flooding and related mudslides, high winds, and social isolation, but at least it avoids storm surge and likely results in great video.  You can check it out on Google maps; the automated weather station is here:

22°52'52"N 109°55'36"W 

An $1100/night super-luxury resort operates on this hilltop, but I'm sure you can find something more affordable nearby. 

 

Wind is already 38G52KT at 20:00 UTC, so the tropical storm has begun at the hills of Cabo San Lucas. 

 

PS: Bing offers far better aerial imagery than Google does in this area. 

 

Josh according to his facebook has a hotel already FYI. It's near Cabo I think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...