Hurricane Odile

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Starting this thread since Odile poses a significant rainfall risk to the southwestern Mexico coastline, and perhaps a direct landfall on Baja California Sur as a potent hurricane.

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

Deep convection has increased to the west of the center during the
past few hours, and microwave images show increasing organization
of the low-level center. Dvorak classifications were 3.0/45 kt
from TAFB and 2.0/30 kt from SAB. Using a blend of these estimates
yields an initial wind speed of 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical
Storm Odile.

Odile has been moving slowly northwestward for the last several
hours, and a continued northwestward or north-northwestward drift
is forecast during the next day or two while the cyclone remains in
weak steering currents. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone is anticipated
to feel more influence from mid-level ridging to its north and
northeast, and that should cause Odile to move at a faster pace
to the northwest. Although the models are in fair agreement on
this overall scenario, the big question is how close to the
southwestern coast of Mexico does the center of the storm get. The
ECMWF and HWRF models are on the right side of the guidance and
bring the center of Odile very near or over the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Conversely, the GFS and GFS ensemble mean,
which are on the left side of the guidance, keep the center of Odile
well offshore. The NHC track forecast is again between these
solutions and brings Odile just off of southwestern Mexico in
3 to 4 days, and near the southern Baja peninsula by the end of the
forecast period.

Steady strengthening is expected for at least the next few days
while the storm remains in low to moderate shear, a highly moist
environment, and over very warm 30 C water. The only limiting
factor could be land interaction. The NHC intensity forecast shows
a slightly faster rate of strengthening than the previous one, but
is lower than the SHIPS guidance.

A tropical storm watch could be needed for a portion of the coast of
southwestern Mexico later today. Regardless, locally heavy rains
are possible across that area later this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 14.9N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.1N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 15.3N 103.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.5N 103.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 15.9N 103.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 17.6N 104.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 20.9N 107.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[wxmx]

Please, use the pinned storm threads for discussions. Use of hard data is encouraged. No praying, wishes or hoping, please. "Leave hope behind all ye who enter here".

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

This could send a lot more rain to Arizona that they don't need right now

[Superstorm93]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 10 SEPTEMBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-102


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK; FIX TROPICAL STORM ODILE
NEAR 15.9N 103.3W AT 12/1900Z.

[Yellow Evan]

ATCF has this at 40 knots.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

 

Odile's low-level center remains exposed on the northeastern edge
of the deep convection due to about 15 kt of north-northeasterly
shear.  The Dvorak satellite estimate from TAFB is still 45 kt,
while the estimate from SAB has increased to 35 kt, so the initial
intensity is raised to 40 kt.  The vertical shear is expected to
gradually abate during the next 24 or so, which should allow Odile
to steadily strengthen.  After that time, low shear and very warm
waters should support a faster rate of intensification, and Odile
is forecast to become a hurricane in about 36 hours.  The SHIPS
model is still the most aggressive intensity model, showing Odile
reaching major hurricane status by day 3.  The NHC intensity
forecast is very close to an average of the SHIPS and LGEM models
and is only a little higher than the previous forecast at days 3
and 4.

 

Odile is slowing down in weak steering flow, and the initial motion
estimate is 310/3 kt.  The cyclone is expected to remain in
this environment for another 48 hours and will likely meander or
drift generally west-northwestward during this time.  By day 3, a
mid-level high over the northern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to
expand westward over Mexico and cause Odile to accelerate toward
the northwest through the end of the forecast period.  The track
guidance has again shifted westward on this cycle, and now all of
the models, except for the GFDL, bring the center of Odile west of
the Baja California peninsula on days 4 and 5.  The updated NHC
track forecast lies to the west of the previous forecast and the
model consensus TVCE, especially after 48 hours.  However, the most
reliable global models, the GFS and ECMWF, are even farther west,
and additional adjustments to the NHC forecast may be required on
future advisories.

 

Even though the forecast track has shifted a little further away
from the Mexican coast, there is a lot of uncertainty about how big
Odile's wind field will get in a couple of days.  Most of the
guidance shows a significant increase in the 34-kt wind radii, and
on this basis, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm
watch for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to
Manzanillo.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  11/0300Z 15.5N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  11/1200Z 15.6N 103.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  12/0000Z 15.6N 104.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  12/1200Z 15.7N 104.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  13/0000Z 16.2N 104.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  14/0000Z 18.0N 106.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  15/0000Z 21.0N 110.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 24.0N 113.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

 

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

 

 

Wind shear has presented itself as more of an issue than models originally anticipated; its source region is that upper-level low in the Bay of Campeche. While upper-level winds are forecast to slacken, this increased shear has taken away from the time that Odile has to strengthen, and the NHC has backed off its forecast of a major hurricane. We'll see though--if winds do indeed come light, sea surface temperatures are very warm, mid-level moisture is in abundance, and an impressive convectively-coupled kelvin wave is currently passing over the area, all of which could lead to a period of rapid deepening. Regardless, the forecast track has shifted westward since yesterday, and this doesn't appear to be  *direct* threat to Baja California Sur anymore.

[thewxmann]

ULL's almost always move away slower than expected. Might still be another 48 hours before shear slackens (remember when shear was forecasted to slacken for Karina... and never did?). 

[Yellow Evan]

It is looking better now. I would not be cancelling RI.

 

Karina was a tricky forecast since it was close to Lowell and 94C.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

What a difference 24 hours make.

 

[Yellow Evan]

ATCF has this at 75 knts. I could see them going with 80 knts.

[David Reimer]

It goes without saying Odile is likely not done rapidly intensifying. Very impressive numbers off the SHIPS RI index from the 18Z run this afternoon.

 

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 32% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 31% is 7.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Snow_Miser]

Odile looks like it has a partial eyewall now.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc14/EPAC/15E.ODILE/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/full/20140913.1342.f17.x.91h_1deg.15EODILE.65kts-983mb-164N-1058W.62pc.html

[Srain]

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Dry air is trying to work its way into the inner core of Odile, but it's been unsuccessful so far. The eye is still in the process of clearing out. 0z Best Track was up to 90kt.

 

[Snow_Miser]

Looks like the 0z tracks shifted NE from 18z. Going to be a close call for Baja.

[Yellow Evan]

Yea, hurricane warnings may be needed soon. Recon is going out tomorrow.

[Snow_Miser]

Yea, hurricane warnings may be needed soon. Recon is going out tomorrow.

Just issued. Expected to be a major now as it passes very close to or over Baja.

[Yellow Evan]

Raw ADT up to 6.6. NHC nowcasting. Currently 95 knts.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

110kt looks like a good place to start.

 

[Amped]

Raw ADT 6.8. Worthy of a special advisory upgrade IMO.

[Floydbuster]

Odile sure looks like a Cat 4.

[Yellow Evan]

Intermediate advisory gave this 105. TAFB and SAB are at 6.0 and then check this out

                     UW - CIMSS                                   ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE                         ADT-Version 8.2.1                         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm                    ----- Current Analysis -----      Date :  14 SEP 2014    Time :   054500 UTC      Lat :   18:27:04 N     Lon :  107:02:37 W                     CI# /Pressure/ Vmax                5.5 / 954.4mb/102.0kt                  Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#                 5.5     5.6     7.2 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km Center Temp :  +1.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C Scene Type : EYE   Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION  Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC   Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC   Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr                    Weakening Flag : OFF              Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF    C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :  - Average 34 knot radii :  145km  - Environmental MSLP    : 1009mb Satellite Name :  GOES13  Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.3 degrees 

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 34, NEQ, 160, 160, 130, 100, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 50, NEQ, 70, 70, 50, 60, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,

[mob1]

Josh is chasing it in Cabo San Lucas.

[Yellow Evan]

Josh is chasing it in Cabo San Lucas.

 

He's riding it out in Cabo? I'd think he'd go to Todos Santos or even Puerto San Carlos?

[mob1]

He's riding it out in Cabo? I'd think he'd go to Todos Santos or even Puerto San Carlos?

Not sure, he just posted on his Facebook page that he's flying to Cabos, I'm sure he'll reassess the situation when he lands. Either way Odile looks mighty impressive and Recon is just about there, it'll be interesting to see what they find.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Time: 18:10:00Z
Coordinates: 20.5167N 108.55W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.4 mb (~ 20.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,455 meters (~ 8,054 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 922.0 mb (~ 27.23 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 44° at 4 knots (From the NE at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 18.4°C (~ 65.1°F)
Dew Pt: 6.0°C (~ 42.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 13 knots (~ 14.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)

[GaWx]

Some climo to consider:

 

 From Josh, major H hits on west coast of Mexico since 1949:

 

1957 No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt)
1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt)
1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt)
1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt)
1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (~100 kt)
1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt)
1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt)
1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt)
2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt)
2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt)

 

 From this list, hit dates were as follows: 8/27, 9/16, 10/1, 10/8, 10/14, 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, 10/27. So, we're a bit earlier than the prime month of Oct. However, the fact that the earliest hit Baja and the 2nd earliest was during an oncoming weak El Nino should be noted.

 

The real strongest (cat. 4-5) have hit mainly in late Oct.: 10/8, 10/22, 10/25, 10/27 

 

 Oncoming weak to moderate El Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits (Liza, Madeline, Kenna, and Lane). I believe with high confidence that we're in an oncoming weak to moderate El Nino. 1957's #10 hit during an oncoming strong El Nino.

[phil882]

Cabo is definitely looking like they will experience hurricane force winds. Classic double eyewall structure with Odile right now means quite an extensive area of hurricane + force winds