Solak Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 2. An area of showers and thunderstorms just east of the central and southeastern Bahamas is associated with a weak surface trough of low pressure. Slow development of this system is possible during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward or westward at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Yay just what we need more rain...models slowly hinting that there may actually be something to this so time will tell, you just never know what to expect out of these little Bahamas systems....... coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Fairly amazing how quiet the hurricane season is, looks destined to go majorless. Also, as quiet as last season was which had 12 named storms by this point compared to only 4 this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Fairly amazing how quiet the hurricane season is, looks destined to go majorless. Also, as quiet as last season was which had 12 named storms by this point compared to only 4 this year. I bet we get a couple of monsters in the Caribbean/GOM in October I bet we even see a landfalling major in the US this year.....as for the the Bahama low it has high surface pressures to work through so anything that happens will be slow to occur maybe by Friday night into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I bet we get a couple of monsters in the Caribbean/GOM in October I bet we even see a landfalling major in the US this year.....as for the the Bahama low it has high surface pressures to work through so anything that happens will be slow to occur maybe by Friday night into Saturday. I hope not, I thought a quiet hurricane season was a prelude to an active SE winter :-), like last year. Need to dig up some stats on that. Although, now I just jinxed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Yay just what we need more rain...models slowly hinting that there may actually be something to this so time will tell, you just never know what to expect out of these little Bahamas systems....... coast.... The Bahamas system is interesting to me, too, despite it not doing much on the GFS/Euro. With what looks to me to be a fairly good environment (persistent upper level high pressure near and to the north of it well into the weekend), fairly moist air, very warm mid-80's SST's, some rather persistent convection (though it seems to be split into two areas, which could compete with each other; one near NW Bahamas already has little bit of curvature fwiw), and it being near the peak of the season, I think it has a nearly 50-50 chance of eventually becoming a TD+ (either E of FL or in the GoM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2014 Author Share Posted September 10, 2014 Starting to see a little bit of naked rotation with the system on vis. sat. right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Starting to see a little bit of naked rotation with the system on vis. sat. right now. Saw the same thing last night on Cinemax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2014 Author Share Posted September 10, 2014 SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 We have 92L now... Looks to be headed towards the GoM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 The reliable models are probably having trouble developing this because of its small size. From the looks of things, they may be falling behind what appears may already be occurring, an organizing LLC/developing TC underneath upper level high pressure over very warm SST's and within a moist environment. Keep watching this one. The small size in combo with the overall current good conditions could allow for some rather quick development even while E of FL. Will yesterday's NAM runs get a rare win for the tropics? It normally is a pretty poor tropical genesis model since it develops far too many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 12, 2014 Author Share Posted September 12, 2014 www.spaghettimodels.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Looks like whatever this becomes, it may take a quick turn NE/ENE before it gets to Texas , and could bring widespread heavy rain to the SE, iF, it makes this turn. Tropical moisture for us would make alot of people happy because of a relatively dry summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Looks like whatever this becomes, it may take a quick turn NE/ENE before it gets to Texas , and could bring widespread heavy rain to the SE, iF, it makes this turn. Tropical moisture for us would make alot of people happy because of a relatively dry summer Brick would likely be pissed though. He seems to hate steady, all day type rain. The idea of the moisture possibly coming in from the WSW to parts of the SE US mid to late next week once the upper level winds switch to WSW is there regardless of there being an actual closed surface low still in existence. Even the 0Z Euro suggests this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 A storm making such a turn NE and ENE with the upper level winds blowing in the direction it's moving, would certainly help increase diffluence and help the storm strengthen. Now, we just have to see if it can survive the northerly shear. It's already moving into an area with decreasing shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Looks like whatever this becomes, it may take a quick turn NE/ENE before it gets to Texas , and could bring widespread heavy rain to the SE, iF, it makes this turn. Tropical moisture for us would make alot of people happy because of a relatively dry summer There's also many of us who are over the rain. The station a mile from me has measured 16" since 6/1/14...seems like we get insane downpours at least once or twice a week. http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nc/nwis/uv?cb_00045=on&format=gif_default&site_no=351414080463245&period=&begin_date=2014-06-01&end_date=2014-09-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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