daddylonglegs Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Des Moines must have about 50 inches of precip this year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 I thought a 45% risk area warranted a moderate risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 I thought a 45% risk area warranted a moderate risk? It's a 45% hatched area for day 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 i really haven't been following the severe aspects, but even with mosit adiabatic / low cape environment, i imagine the strong upward motion and shear are enough to allow stronger cells to mix down some nice gusts...liking CMI to LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 The HRW-ARW is simulating supercells with visible RFD structures and weak UH tracks right underneath the hooks in Indiana ahead of the mainline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 12z NAM has a 985 mb surface low in the UP at 00z Thursday while the 12z GFS has a 997 mb surface low over Lake Huron at the same time. That's one of the bigger differences I can recall inside of 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 12z NAM has a 985 mb surface low in the UP at 00z Thursday while the 12z GFS has a 997 mb surface low over Lake Huron at the same time. That's one of the bigger differences I can recall inside of 36 hours.Witt the RGEM also showing 997mb, really have to wonder if the NAM should be tossed. RGEM position is northern tip of lower peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 of course you toss the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Witt the RGEM also showing 997mb, really have to wonder if the NAM should be tossed. RGEM position is northern tip of lower peninsula. Will be interesting to see what the model diagnostic discussion says. So far they seem to be leaning away from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Slight risk expanded east for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Don't really agree with this on the new day 1... SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES ENEWD INTO NRN IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Don't really agree with this on the new day 1... SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES ENEWD INTO NRN IL. Yea, not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 ...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...TRAILING COLD FRONT... PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER/STRONGER AND MORE NRLY TRACK WITH THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND INTO ERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 12Z GFS OVERALL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO PROGRESSIVE AND WEAK WITH THE SYS. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEM AND 00Z UKMET SPLIT THE DIFF. THE 00Z ECMWF THOUGH IN ITSELF APPEARS A TAD TOO WEAK. A CONSENSUS SOLN TO ACCOMMODATE THE SPREAD WOULD ESSENTIALLY FAVOR A BLEND OF THE NON-NCEP MODELS WHICH ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN...AND SO THIS WILL BE THE PREFERENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Don't really agree with this on the new day 1... SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES ENEWD INTO NRN IL. Yea, not happening. Wind probs seem kinda bullish but the wording isn't really overboard imo. There's some instability that lingers overnight so doesn't seem like a huge stretch that there could be isolated severe reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Current dews are in the low 70's from western MO to sw IA. I really didn't expect the amount of rain parts of central IL has had already today. Will be interesting to see which model wins out in this. IND talking about highs in the 80's for Wednesday. They raise greatest concern about flooding and think the greatest lift will be in northern parts of the CWA with a strong 300 mb jet moving in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Afternoon day 2 outlook has been dialed back...no more 45% probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 And much smaller 30. Can't say I'm shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Flash Flood Watch hoisted for LOT as well... I merely have experience vs. the wealth of knowledge that most have in here with regard to severe set ups... But I could see some isolated severe creeping into western portions of LOT...I think incredibly high rain generating storms can create some forward momentum in isolated locals that could lead to faster movement of individual clusters before the jets really start to take over and focus precip and create a larger MCS. I don't see much in the way of widespread severe action this evening over LOT....but isolated is on the table imo, fwiw, etc... I shall ooze back into the background before Joe slaps sense into me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Was kind of surprised. Same forecaster too. I don't think it was. This outlook was Darrow, the first day 2 outlook was Kerr. Darrow did yesterday afternoon's day 2 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 I am surprised by the reduction, especially with the GFS being the fastest model. I am not saying the NAM is going to be correct but using most of the weight on the most progressive model is a bit suspect. Not to mention the GFS is terrible at getting surface thermodynamic profiles correct thus leading to much lower instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Not to mention the GFS is terrible at getting surface thermodynamic profiles correct thus leading to much lower instability. Well the NAM is terrible at everything else so pick your poison :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Even the RAP doesn't look like it's going to support the wound up NAM. Edit: well, maybe something in between the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 They probably could ha e broadrushed 30pct across the area they had 45 before and been fine. I think the reduction was too drastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 They probably could ha e broadrushed 30pct across the area they had 45 before and been fine. I think the reduction was too drastic. Nope. It's completely right. In fact, I would have removed the 30% altogether. The NAM is too wound up with the low because of convective influences. Tomorrow is not at all an impressive setup for reasons I mentioned earlier. There may be a few severe reports, but I'd be shocked if it were anything beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Even the RAP doesn't look like it's going to support the wound up NAM. Edit: well, maybe something in between the NAM and GFS. Bustin' out the RAP to try find a little love for the NAM are we? lol Something between the NAM and GFS may be the way to go. EDIT: Tony, you worry me. I'm looking forward to a legit September threat and you burst my bubble. Seriously, I respect your assessment of the situation that it may not be as big of a threat as originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Tomorrow won't be anything special. Left-over MCS/debris from today/overnight activity will kill potential for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Bustin' out the RAP to try find a little love for the NAM are we? lol Something between the NAM and GFS may be the way to go. EDIT: Tony, you worry me. I'm looking forward to a legit September threat and you burst my bubble. Seriously, I respect your assessment of the situation that it may not be as big of a threat as originally thought. I'm concerned about his pessimism as well, as I mentioned earlier. I was looking at Indiana severe climo and outside of DJF, September is basically the least favorable month. It has the fewest number of tornadoes other than DJF and it's hard to think of a lot of good events. 9/20/02 comes to mind for obvious reasons. 9/28/99 was decent but fairly localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 is it cool to talk heavy rain / MCS action ITT? the new weenie NMM (or whatever its real name is now) paints a massive swath of 2"+ across IA into N IL with many places seeing way more...heavy pwats + ripping LLJ doing work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 is it cool to talk heavy rain / MCS action ITT? the new weenie NMM (or whatever its real name is now) paints a massive swath of 2"+ across IA into N IL with many places seeing way more...heavy pwats + ripping LLJ doing work. Looks a training situation with that WSW - ENE orientation. About a 1am start time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 ILX added flash flood watches also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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