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September 9th-10th Severe Threat

andyhb

By andyhb,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

Watching that line in central Illinois. A few damaging wind gusts appear to be the greatest threat, however the environment downstream is slightly more unstable/sheared. There are some kinks in the line already. Wouldn't rule out a brief spin-up as it approaches the Indiana border.

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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

Posted
Posted

TORNADO WARNING
INC011-063-102315-
/O.NEW.KIND.TO.W.0020.140910T2239Z-140910T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
639 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHERN HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 636 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF DANVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

I see that. So anything legitimate would come from sw mi and not n in. Storm movement looks like it's more towards the east at this point. Interesting.

I don't think there will be much if anything the rest of the night, even if stuff formed in SW MI this side of the state has been worked over big time.

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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

Posted
Posted

Lets do this again in November  :clap:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502...

VALID 102322Z - 110045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK MAY YET DEVELOP WITH A QLCS
MOVING E ACROSS PARTS OF IL. OVERALL RISK SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET
WITH AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE UNLIKELY BEYOND 01Z EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS
SHOULD PRIMARILY EXIST WITH THE BAND OF STORMS LOCATED NEAR THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR DNV TO STL AS OF 23Z. THE
NRN PORTION OF THIS LINE IS AMIDST STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW PER ILX
VWP DATA WITH 50 KT W/SWLYS TO 4 KM AGL. STILL...WITH FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LINE...CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO
INTENSIFY BEYOND STRONG WIND GUSTS PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH...CLUSTERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ORGANIZED AMIDST
WEAKER/VEERED FLOW. OTHERWISE...SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED BEHIND THE
LINE FROM VERMILLION COUNTY IL TO FRANKLIN COUNTY MO.

..GRAMS.. 09/10/2014

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Lets do this again in November  :clap:

 

 

 

Speaking of that, I've been thinking about what fall may hold.  Tony or someone else could probably answer this but I think there's some correlation with neutral or warm ENSO state and increased fall severe weather outbreaks.  Or I could be entirely wrong.  :D

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
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Posted

Speaking of that, I've been thinking about what fall may hold.  Tony or someone else could probably answer this but I think there's some correlation with neutral or warm ENSO state and increased fall severe weather outbreaks.  Or I could be entirely wrong.  :D

 

-> November 20th, 1900 -> Weak Nino (at least two F4 tornadoes strike in MS/TN)

 

-> November 11th, 1911 -> Weak to low-end moderate Nino (outbreak strikes the Midwest including an F4 through Janesville, WI)

 

-> November 10th and 25th, 1915 -> Positive neutral coming out of a moderate Nino the previous winter (two F4 tornadoes strike KS including one through Great Bend on the 10th and then an F4 in the Hot Springs, AR area on 11/25)

 

-> 1921 and 1922 both had violent tornadoes in November and were both neutral.

 

-> November 25th/26th, 1926 -> Neutral coming out of a moderate Nino the winter before (deadliest Nov. tornado outbreak on record strikes AR and vicinity, also a deadly tornado hit La Plata, MD earlier in the month)

 

-> November 19th, 1930 -> Moderate Nino (tornado outbreak hits the S Plains including an F4 in Bethany, OK)

 

-> November 24th, 1949 -> Moderate Nina (F4 tornado hits Oneonta, AL)

 

-> November 7th/8th and 17th/18th, 1957 -> Strong Nino (outbreak on the 7th/8th and a violent tornado in AL on both the 17th/18th, then the tornado outbreak on December 18th-19th to add on to it)

 

-> November 28th, 1988 -> Strong Nina -> (Raleigh F4 tornado)

 

-> November 15th, 1989 -> Neutral coming out of the aforementioned Nina the previous winter (tornado outbreak including the F4 Huntsville tornado)

 

-> November 21st-23rd, 1992 -> Neutral coming out of a strong Nino the previous winter (Widespread Outbreak)

 

-> November 7th, 1995 -> Weak Nina (Penderboro, SC F4)

 

-> November 23rd/24th, 2001 -> Neutral (major outbreak in the SE, also a couple of events in October in the Plains and Midwest)

 

-> November 10th, 2002 -> Moderate Nino (Veterans Day Weekend Outbreak)

 

-> November 22nd-24th, 2004 -> Weak Nino (numerous tornadoes across the South)

 

-> November 2005 -> Neg-neutral (at least four significant events including the Evansville tornado on 11/6 and a high risk event on 11/15)

 

-> November 15th/16th, 2006 -> Weak/low-end moderate Nino (tornado outbreak across the South including a deadly F3 in Riegelwood, NC)

 

-> October 18th, 2007 -> Moderate Nina (largest October outbreak on record in the US over the GL/OV)

 

-> November 17th, 2013 -> Neutral (shouldn't need to remind you guys of this one, also October with a couple of notable events)

 

ENSO data retrieved from:

ftp://ftp.atmos.washington.edu/mantua/pnw_impacts/INDICES/nino34.long.latest

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

Also PDO values from 1900 to 2004 for those interested: ftp://ftp.atmos.washington.edu/mantua/pnw_impacts/INDICES/PDO.latest

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

This was one of two separate event strong couplets over SW Ontario this evening. This storm had a persistent hook and rotation for about 20 minutes as it made landfall on eastern Elgin County off Lake Erie. It continued towards Brantford where a rotating wall cloud was reported by a storm chaser. No tornado warning was issued on this, but several outlets including media and storm chasers were tweeting information about this storm as it progressed. At one point even the chief meteorologist at The Weather Network called it a dangerous situation. Storm chasers are currently surveying the area right now and have come across a path of damage. More info it it becomes avaiable.

 

 

post-277-0-44360300-1410401694_thumb.png

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

fairly tight rotation just WSW of Huntington, IN now.  SVR includes TOR possible.

 

I had spotters on that cell all the way through Huntington County. Out of the 5 cars on that cell, no one saw any rotation. Of course, it would have been rain wrapped. I thought for sure something would come from it.

 

I ended up with 3.33", with over 2" coming from that warned cell.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

Van Wert County Ohio Emergency Manager reporting a tornado touchdown at 5:10 PM 1 1/4 miles west of Delphos that traveled northeast and was on the ground for 1.5 miles with a width of 25 yards. He is estimating high EF-0/low EF-1 damage along the path.

 

Apparently the EM was wrong. Always leave it to the experts.

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

443 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014 /343 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 09/10/14 THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE IN VAN

WERT COUNTY...OHIO.

.THUNDERSTORM WIND...

PEAK WIND: 60 MPH

PATH LENGTH: 5.5 MILES

SPORADIC STORM DAMAGE OBSERVED STARTING 5 MILES WSW OF

DELPHOS...OHIO AND TRAVELING TO 1.5 MILES NW OF DELPHOS OHIO WAS

DETERMINED TO BE CAUSED BY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ALONG THE PATH

THERE WAS CORN FLATTENED...TREES UPROOTED...AND MINOR STRUCTURAL

DAMAGE TO A FEW BARNS.

NOTE:

THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS

STORM DATA.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

4 tornadoes in the CLE cwa.  Somewhat surprising...I wouldn't have picked that area as the most likely to see that. 

 

http://www.weather.gov/cle/event_20140910_tornadoes

Yeah, that was a bit of a surprise. North-central and NE Ohio saw some heating on Wednesday and had about 1500 J/KG of SBCAPE develop, and there was plenty of shear. No models really showed storms developing that far east though during the late afternoon which made it a bit of a surprise (I believe a couple of WRF's showed some showers developing that far east, but nothing very intense). I'm not sure if there was potentially a differential heating boundary that sparked the storms that far east, as there were several other "storms" (really just gusty showers) that formed at the same time and a couple of other storms were also tornado warned, but didn't produce.

 

Luckily, mid-level lapse rates were poor and hence instability didn't become any stronger than it was, as I'd have to think that same supercell tracking over such a populated area with that much shear might have produced a lot more damage if it had better instability to work with. As it was, the storm only produced some sporadic lightning.

 

A bit of an oddity, the tornadoes were all EF-0's, but that's still dangerous enough. Luckily nothing worse happened:

 

http://www.wkyc.com/story/news/local/portage-county/2014/09/11/golfer-thrown-by-tornado/15475261/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

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