New, exhaustive Atlantic hurricane reanalysis, 1954-1963

[Ground Scouring]

http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2707&context=etd

 

Remember: none of this is official, but has to be reviewed by the Best Track Committee.

 

HIGHLIGHTS

·      Several of the hurricanes that formed away from land/over open ocean (i.e., Debbie 1961) may have been significantly stronger than reanalyzed, as the grainy satellite data were limited and reconnaissance likely did not capture the most intense stage.

·      1954 had three major hurricanes hitting the U.S.: Carol (100 kt/955 mb), Edna (105 kt/948 mb), and Hazel (120 kt/938 mb due to very fast forward speed). Three new tropical storms were added to the seasonal total, one of which began just prior to the start of the season (late May).

·      1955 had two new tropical storms added to the total, both of which formed in the MDR. Janet kept its peak and Chetumal landfall intensity of 150 kt/914 mb, which is no surprise for such a small and intense TC. Hilda was upgraded to 105 kt/952 mb at its landfall near Tampico. Ione was upgraded from Category 3 to Category 4 (120 kt).

·      Four new tropical storms were added to the 1956 season.

·      Audrey of 1957, despite deepening from 972 to 950 mb before landfall, increased its RMW from 20 to 25-30 n mi and hence only strengthened to 105 kt before landfall (a reduction from the 125 kt/946 mb previously listed). The offshore oil rig reports of ~925 mb and 125-155 kt, while likely not calibrated, were strangely ignored, not even mentioned in the metadata summary. There were apparently no radar data at the time of landfall, but only radar and reconnaissance several hours before/after. So the 105-kt/950-mb landfall intensity is a rather uncertain best estimate.

·      1958 had four Category 4 hurricanes: Cleo (downgraded from 140 to 120 kt), Daisy (upgraded from Cat. 3 to 120 kt), Helene (boosted from 115 to 125 kt), and Ilsa (boosted from 115 to 120 kt). Helene made no U.S. landfall, but produced 110-kt (near-Category 4) sustained winds on the Outer Banks and is counted as a hurricane impact.

·      Gracie of 1959 was analyzed as a 115-kt/951-mb Category 4 hurricane at its peak and U.S. landfall, which is an upgrade from the Category 3 intensity currently listed at landfall. Gracie was quite compact at its landfall, as its relatively high pressure north of 30°N illustrates.

·      Hurricane Ethel of 1960 was downgraded from 140 kt to 100 kt—a significant decrease, but not as significant as I had expected, as it was a very small but intense hurricane (100 kt/972 mb at the time of minimum pressure in the northern Gulf).

·      1961 had five Category 4s: Betsy (lowered from 120 to 115 kt), Carla (downgraded from 150 to 125 kt), Esther (boosted from 125 to 135 kt), Frances (upgraded from Cat. 3 to 115 kt), and Hattie (downgraded from 140 to 135 kt).

·      Carla made landfall in TX as a solid Category 4, 120 kt/931 mb. Hattie hit Belize as a 135-kt/924-mb, borderline Category 4/5. Hattie was not the same system that spawned Simone in the EPAC and later Inga in the BOC, and in fact, Simone was likely never a TC to begin with, given its lack of a closed low.

 

Additionally, tiny, fast-moving Arlene of 1963 was upgraded to a 100-kt/969-mb major hurricane as it passed close to Bermuda. Flora was maintained at 125 kt at peak intensity and Haitian landfall, but with a central pressure of 936 mb added in, and was determined to have re-attained major hurricane intensity (100 kt/965 mb) for a second time in the North Atlantic. Flossy of 1956 was upgraded to an 85-kt Category 2 hurricane at its U.S. landfall.

[ncforecaster89]

Excellent summary of the "highlights" from Sandy Delgado's thesis. I did notice one minor typo stating that hurricane Helene's greatest U.S. impact was on the NC Outer Banks. In reality, it was on the southeast coastline of NC (near Cape Fear), where that 110 kt. MSW was estimated.

That aside, thanks so much for posting this thread, and the excellent summary you provided, herein!

[wxmx]

Thanks for the link and summary GS!

 

See, you are so much better when you aren't so bleak . j/k

 

I especially dig the year 1955, the year of the Tampico disaster. That's the threshold in Mexico for hurricane weather disasters, and I'm glad Hilda got upgraded to a major, as I always thought it was.

[HurricaneJosh]

http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2707&context=etd

 

Remember: none of this is official, but has to be reviewed by the Best Track Committee.

 

HIGHLIGHTS

 

·      Audrey of 1957, despite deepening from 972 to 950 mb before landfall, increased its RMW from 20 to 25-30 n mi and hence only strengthened to 105 kt before landfall (a reduction from the 125 kt/946 mb previously listed). The offshore oil rig reports of ~925 mb and 125-155 kt, while likely not calibrated, were strangely ignored, not even mentioned in the metadata summary. There were apparently no radar data at the time of landfall, but only radar and reconnaissance several hours before/after. So the 105-kt/950-mb landfall intensity is a rather uncertain best estimate.

 

Good summary, mostly.

 

Re: Audrey... There were radar data-- and, in fact, there's a continuous loop showing the large, loose core coming ashore as dry air sucks into it.  I personally feel the 105 kt is charitable.  I don't think it was above 90 kt at landfall, honestly. There's very little wind damage in the pics from Cameron, LA-- which was ground zero.

 

The Hattie estimate is WOW.  I knew it was strong but didn't think it was 135 kt.  Holy crap.  The Carla verdict seems about right.  The pressure was very low, but it was a large system.

[LongIslandHurricanes]

Donna no longer a Cat 5