Bob Chill Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 This is a great training exercise for winter. I'll go with the euro and rgem. .75 - 1.5 for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 I would welcome this. Don't want a drenching. lol hires_t_precip_washdc_16.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 While I think that there is enough consensus among the various models for an area-wide decent rain, this is fascinating from a modeling perspective. The only real difference between the NAM and 4 km NAM is that the latter has higher resolution (obviously) and allows explicit convection. So either the nest is resolving critical low-level features differently than the parent, or else it's handling the convection along the coast much differently which can have big impacts inland. The wrinkle is that the 12z runs yesterday had the nest bringing the heavy precip much further to the west than the parent, but today's 12z run has the nest further to the east with its precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 I see we are already getting into freak out model run to model run mode. Just let it happen Practice for winter lol hires_t_precip_washdc_16.png Can you send me one showing Salisbury better? need to forecast for tomorrow, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 GFS has a little lollipop of higher totals in our area, but nothing crazy. .5-1.25" mostly. The heaviest of the rain still offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 RGEM mostly .5 - 1" in MD (1-1.5" in S MD). 1"+ in parts of FFX/Loudon and a 1.5"+ bullseye down by fredburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 HRRR is wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 With the overcast developing, the color is really evident. Gorgeous day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Do we need a new thread for the coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 No. It's an average rainmaker. Do we need a new thread for the coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Yeah a new thread is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 lol hires_t_precip_washdc_16.png I'm saving this map just for Leesburg I have a feeling it will be popping up attached to a lot of my posts this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 51.2/50 this morning. Kind of invigorating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 46F this morning. That was a pleasant surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Severe clear out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Severe clear out there beautiful day for sure, but since we've had so many of these this summer/fall, it would be nice to see a little weather destruction for kicks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 27, 2014 Author Share Posted September 27, 2014 Roasted last night... 55.5 for the low, while BWI got to 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Coldest low temp in years!! ( inside the house that is) I blame the NyQuil. Passed out with the windows open and woke up at 430am to a temp of 57f in the house. Bottomed out at 46 for a low and should be perfect stink bug weather today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Beautiful day for the Nats game! Sunny and 82 at 4:05 first pitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Gotta enjoy them now before the mank and letdown of late fall/faux winter.Yeah exactly. Every warm and sunny day from now through March is a blessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Yeah exactly. Every warm and sunny day from now through March is a blessing. Hopefully we get plenty of them spaced among our multiple KUs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 I approve of the gorgeous day. Yesterday too. Starting to see some nice touches of color around here. I'd be perfectly happy....if I weren't still bitter about the coastal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Soccer on a day like today is fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Soccer on a day like today is fantastic Helicopter mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 LR GFS seems to be jumping between a Torch for the Eastern 1/2 of the U.S. (12z 9/26, 18z 9/26, 12z 9/27), and some form of a overrunning SWFE (0z 9/27, 6z 9/27). Either way it looks like we will be warm the second week of October (5th thru 12th) or potentially longer. By warmth I mean highs in the lower 80s, lows around 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Neither the NAM or GFS have any type of significant precip from the system early in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 DCA is just a very dry locale. 65% now and 68, Andrews and Annapolis(you know, the one by the bigger body of water) all 90%+, winds calm everywhere, sky conditions same, just very stable and uniform except DCA and whatever it is cranking out. My uncle says they have a corn dust maker there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 LR GFS seems to be jumping between a Torch for the Eastern 1/2 of the U.S. (12z 9/26, 18z 9/26, 12z 9/27), and some form of a overrunning SWFE (0z 9/27, 6z 9/27). Either way it looks like we will be warm the second week of October (5th thru 12th) or potentially longer. By warmth I mean highs in the lower 80s, lows around 60. Analogs of warm first 1/3 of October and absence of a coastral crawler last 1/3 of October are great ones for winter around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 GFS continues to show warmth from the 8th to the 11th of October, at the same time the Cutter train seems to open up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 GFS continues to show warmth from the 8th to the 11th of October, at the same time the Cutter train seems to open up Ensembles paint a different picture. Strong aleutian low developing with a ridge extending from the GOA connecting all the way across to Scandinavia. Euro ens are similar in some ways. Next weekend looks like a nice cool shot coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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