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September 2014 Obs and Discussion


T. August

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     While I think that there is enough consensus among the various models for an area-wide decent rain, this is fascinating from a modeling perspective.   The only real difference between the NAM and 4 km NAM is that the latter has higher resolution (obviously) and allows explicit convection.  So either the nest is resolving critical low-level features differently than the parent, or else it's handling the convection along the coast much differently which can have big impacts inland.    The wrinkle is that the 12z runs yesterday had the nest bringing the heavy precip much further to the west than the parent, but today's 12z run has the nest further to the east with its precip.    

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LR GFS seems to be jumping between a Torch for the Eastern 1/2 of the U.S. (12z 9/26, 18z 9/26, 12z 9/27), and some form of a overrunning SWFE (0z 9/27, 6z 9/27). Either way it looks like we will be warm the second week of October (5th thru 12th) or potentially longer. By warmth I mean highs in the lower 80s, lows around 60.

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LR GFS seems to be jumping between a Torch for the Eastern 1/2 of the U.S. (12z 9/26, 18z 9/26, 12z 9/27), and some form of a overrunning SWFE (0z 9/27, 6z 9/27). Either way it looks like we will be warm the second week of October (5th thru 12th) or potentially longer. By warmth I mean highs in the lower 80s, lows around 60.

Analogs of warm first 1/3 of October and absence of a coastral crawler last 1/3 of October are great ones for winter around DC.

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GFS continues to show warmth from the 8th to the 11th of October, at the same time the Cutter train seems to open up

Ensembles paint a different picture. Strong aleutian low developing with a ridge extending from the GOA connecting all the way across to Scandinavia. Euro ens are similar in some ways. Next weekend looks like a nice cool shot coming through. 

 

post-2035-0-78853100-1411921170_thumb.jp

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