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September 2014 Obs and Discussion


T. August

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Ensembles are mixed after we break the back of the heat late this weekend. Looks like the front will clear our area and give us a break from sweat missiles. How far south and how long it stays below us aren't clear. After that it looks it could end up being a period of ups and downs. Pretty muddy though. General H5 pattern isn't really ripe for fronts to have an easy time pushing south.

Sept has the potential to end up being one of the warmest months relative to normal in quite a while.

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I thought yesterday was the day to crack 90F but no dice.  87.7F max and hour after the decaying line went thru mid-afternoon.  Only a trace of RN but it put a lid on the ramp up in temps.  Low was a balmy 72F.  Sitting at 84.4F at noon here in Clarksburg, basically the same as yesterday.  Don't see a hint of the convective initiation that the HRRR is advertising so maybe we'll hit 90F today.  Not that I particularly want it to...

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Lol @ the commentary over upper 80s temperatures. We've been spoiled rotten this summer.

Toasty out there relative to what we've had this summer, but nothing like the 100/75 heat of the 2010-2012 era.

Currently 86/71 imby, definitely drier than yesterday

 

Maybe to some extent, but I think it's more about the timing of this heatwave rather than it's intensity.  At least in my mind it is.  This is the time of the year we should be saying good riddance to this garbage, not saying hello.

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Lol @ the commentary over upper 80s temperatures. We've been spoiled rotten this summer.

Toasty out there relative to what we've had this summer, but nothing like the 100/75 heat of the 2010-2012 era.

Currently 86/71 imby, definitely drier than yesterday

The commentary is necessary. This is a big deal. ;)

 

I just hope I don't top my high of the year which is 93.0.

 

89/74

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Maybe to some extent, but I think it's more about the timing of this heatwave rather than it's intensity.  At least in my mind it is.  This is the time of the year we should be saying good riddance to this garbage, not saying hello.

 

It's the oppressive humidity that makes it so bad.  Reminds me of the string of oppressive dewpoints from last summer.  We avoided it much of the summer until the last few days.

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It's the oppressive humidity that makes it so bad. Reminds me of the string of oppressive dewpoints from last summer. We avoided it much of the summer until the last few days.

Meh, average max dp @ DCA is 72F, peaking from Jul/Aug. I think this summer has just turned us into weenies.

http://weatherspark.com/averages/30032/Arlington-County-District-of-Columbia-United-States

0QAqVQ.jpg

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Maybe to some extent, but I think it's more about the timing of this heatwave rather than it's intensity.  At least in my mind it is.  This is the time of the year we should be saying good riddance to this garbage, not saying hello.

 

If the 5 day forecast verifies, this is a fairly impressive heatwave for September. Not record-breaking, but impressive- especially after the cold July and August.

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absolutely brutal.  83 / 68 at 10:15.

 

disgusting.

no thank you!  enjoying my 73/39 which has been about normal since moving here.  Highest DP I have observed since arriving in July (58) I do not miss the humidity at all.  I am actually ready for some clouds here. It is has been insanely sunny here for weeks. Cascades begin there reload in October, can't wait!  I am rooting for an epic winter back there! Will enjoy Jeb's posts either way.  Jay's weather on FB has posted some hope?

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I'm glass half full. If were going to go through a 45-60 AOA period, now is definitely the time to do it 

agree 100%

with the NINO approaching, it would not surprise me for us to be AOA normal into NOV/DEC, then a shift to a friendlier regime

of course, that assumes a decent NINO and not a 91/92 or 94/95 cr@pper

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agree 100%

with the NINO approaching, it would not surprise me for us to be AOA normal into NOV/DEC, then a shift to a friendlier regime

of course, that assumes a decent NINO and not a 91/92 or 94/95 cr@pper

 

Temps in Sept/Oct have little if any bearing on winter so let it roast. Things start getting more important in Nov but even then the correlation is weak.

 

I'm not sure how I feel about the Nino prospects. Weak at best is becoming more likely with each passing week. Weak aren't friendly to us even when we get help from the high latitudes. I don't even want to post the years I was looking at. 

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Temps in Sept/Oct have little if any bearing on winter so let it roast. Things start getting more important in Nov but even then the correlation is weak.

 

I'm not sure how I feel about the Nino prospects. Weak at best is becoming more likely with each passing week. Weak aren't friendly to us even when we get help from the high latitudes. I don't even want to post the years I was looking at. 

I'll take a NINO every time given the option and hope something else controls to save us if the NINO isn't much help

JAMSTEC and Euro are looking decent, all things considered, at this range, while the CFS2 stinks but has been trending better for JAN & FEB

I like sticking to something I can understand and explain better, modelology vs. meteorology      lol

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Ensembles are mixed after we break the back of the heat late this weekend. Looks like the front will clear our area and give us a break from sweat missiles. How far south and how long it stays below us aren't clear. After that it looks it could end up being a period of ups and downs. Pretty muddy though. General H5 pattern isn't really ripe for fronts to have an easy time pushing south.

Sept has the potential to end up being one of the warmest months relative to normal in quite a while.

 

CFSv2 is calling for a warm October too. Yikes.

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