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September 2014 Obs and Discussion


T. August

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and Buffalo NY is in the Upper 40s at the same time. The gradient is always wrong, I.E White Marsh MD is warmer than Quantico VA

I don't know if you've noticed, but the Euro is also really bad at temps for our area. For example, it showed the low last night as 55, but it ended up at 45.5 IMBY.

 

It's horribly wrong almost every night.

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These model oscillations on the Thursday storm are making my head hurt.     But while the NAM and GFS keep alternating between wet and dry solutions, the Euro and SREF mean have been pretty steady with forecasting a fairly wet event for DC Metro.

 

It's on. Main issue for a big event is speed perhaps.

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Not the trend we're looking for. We toss. 

It does seem out of whack compared to the rest of the models at this pt so gotta assume it's not right.  But if the Euro has a bias its solution fits that bias as well.. and the rest of the models are not worth putting a ton of faith into.  0z Euro will be telling. ;)

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FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

409 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014

DCZ001-MDZ006-007-009>011-013-014-VAZ053-054-241615-

/O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0002.140924T2200Z-140925T1000Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-

SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...

BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH

409 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE

TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN

VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND...ANNE

ARUNDEL...HARFORD...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...

PRINCE GEORGES AND SOUTHERN BALTIMORE. THE DISTRICT OF

COLUMBIA. IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...ARLINGTON/FALLS

CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA AND FAIRFAX.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC STATES WILL

BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH

LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY.

* PERSISTENT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLOODING

OF LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS

PRONE TO FRESHWATER FLOODING. NEVER CROSS ROADS THAT ARE

FLOODED. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.

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