Bob Chill Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 18z nam is much more realistic. Especially for my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 12z GGEM says the PV of death returns late next week, -5C 850mb to Philly. Widespread Frost to the I-95 Corridor, maybe Freeze in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 NAM > Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 12z GGEM says the PV of death returns late next week, -5C 850mb to Philly. Widespread Frost to the I-95 Corridor, maybe Freeze in the mountains. It really doesn't understand the Bay. 50 on the shore while 95 is frosty lol. It's not the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 It really doesn't understand the Bay. 50 on the shore while 95 is frosty lol. It's not the Pacific.and Buffalo NY is in the Upper 40s at the same time. The gradient is always wrong, I.E White Marsh MD is warmer than Quantico VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 and Buffalo NY is in the Upper 40s at the same time. The gradient is always wrong, I.E White Marsh MD is warmer than Quantico VA I don't know if you've noticed, but the Euro is also really bad at temps for our area. For example, it showed the low last night as 55, but it ended up at 45.5 IMBY. It's horribly wrong almost every night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 NAM > Euro Think I'm going to bookmark this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 NAM > Euro you're gunna' run out come November 1st you need to save these gems until DEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Get ready to see this a lot over winter: ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 0Z NAM would be x rated if it were December 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 0Z NAM would be x rated if it were December 5th. you can say that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 0Z NAM would be x rated if it were December 5th. click ahead to 27 hrs.+ on this link http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=024&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140924+00+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 NAM looks like it's coming in wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 I can't believe I'm actually pumped up for a rainstorm. This has probably been the most boring stretch of weather I've ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 NAM looks like it's coming in wetter. thru 36 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_036_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140924+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 These model oscillations on the Thursday storm are making my head hurt. But while the NAM and GFS keep alternating between wet and dry solutions, the Euro and SREF mean have been pretty steady with forecasting a fairly wet event for DC Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 I can't believe I'm actually pumped up for a rainstorm. This has probably been the most boring stretch of weather I've ever experienced. This just makes me look forward to winter even more lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 NAM has it fading as it moves into NE too Matt must be at the helm at NCEP tonight practicing for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 These model oscillations on the Thursday storm are making my head hurt. But while the NAM and GFS keep alternating between wet and dry solutions, the Euro and SREF mean have been pretty steady with forecasting a fairly wet event for DC Metro. It's on. Main issue for a big event is speed perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 I can't believe I'm actually pumped up for a rainstorm. This has probably been the most boring stretch of weather I've ever experienced. Same here. Been obsessing over it as if it were a snow event. It has been boring lately lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 It's on. Main issue for a big event is speed perhaps. It's kind of ridiculous, the 4k NAM peeks temp/dew here at 76/69 followed by a squall line and this is with cloud-cover I'm assuming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Don't look at the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Out to lunch, especially if the Euro holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Not the trend we're looking for. We toss. It does seem out of whack compared to the rest of the models at this pt so gotta assume it's not right. But if the Euro has a bias its solution fits that bias as well.. and the rest of the models are not worth putting a ton of faith into. 0z Euro will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Meh'ville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Euro is more favorable for DC than the GFS, takes the 4k NAM track with less QPF. 1-2" areawide with scattered 2-4" zones especially along and east of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 409 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014 DCZ001-MDZ006-007-009>011-013-014-VAZ053-054-241615- /O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0002.140924T2200Z-140925T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA... BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH 409 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND...ANNE ARUNDEL...HARFORD...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN BALTIMORE... PRINCE GEORGES AND SOUTHERN BALTIMORE. THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA AND FAIRFAX. * FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT * LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY. * PERSISTENT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS PRONE TO FRESHWATER FLOODING. NEVER CROSS ROADS THAT ARE FLOODED. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Really poor model consistency except for the Euro. 6z GFS now wettest since the 0z 9/23 run. 0z GGEM/0z UKMET were preety dull. 6z NAM gave DC 0.5" while it gave Lancaster like 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 6Z NAM shifted the heavy precip north of DC. The 6Z GFS came back to the west a bit bringing 1" totals to Baltimore and area to the NE. DC under and inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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