FallsLake Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I'm not thinking a washout for those inland...Carolina or GA coastline could go wet by Wednesday/Thurs... But more clouds and wedge-like conditions will increase starting Thursday farther west. Dewpoints will bounce back up as a result to the 50's, maybe as high as 60... We seem to have entered a pattern where everything hangs up between I-20 and I-10...we can't get a powerful front to flush everything offshore. Your right, it seems that every five/six day forecast of cool/dry has ended up coolish/wet. This definitely sucks for this time of year where we want the dryer solution (lower humidity). But come this winter, these types of patterns (setups) can be great for producing winter storms. I say keep them coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Just to add to the conversation , the 12z Euro again brings an upper level low and eventual surface low out of the Gulf late this weekend. This may not be a tropical system per se but it has the potential to make things active this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Accuweather is showing lows in the low to mid 40s for Atlanta in about 10 days. I hope they are right ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Accuweather is showing lows in the low to mid 40s for Atlanta in about 10 days. I hope they are right ! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 We seem to have entered a pattern where everything hangs up between I-20 and I-10...we can't get a powerful front to flush everything offshore. I'm good with that pattern come winter. Arctic front comes barreling through, stalls somewhere near I-20 then the high moves in. Next thing you know, low pressure is forming somewhere between NOLA and destin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Euro v/S American guidance on the ULL cut off over SC. Man if this was dead of winter it would be a classic short term model war as far as who gets moisture and who doesn't. Chalk one up for the Euro> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Quite a change in the forecast for Wed. We've gone from 20%-30% to 70% chance. And, to make it a little more miserable... WIND: THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY...BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AS STRONG AS 30-40 KT. SHALLOW MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED BY PRECIPITATION /EVAP COOLING/ ON WED...ESP IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE A TIGHTER MSLP GRADIENT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH DURING THE DAY WED. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS WOULD BE A WORST-CASE SCENARIO AND THAT WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH PERHAPS CAPABLE OF A FEW DOWNED TREES IN THE PRESENCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 So you're telling me there's a chance... http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=zmw:27278.1.99999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Rain is moving up from the south, but it appears to be breaking up a little bit. Only a 20% chance listed for Raleigh today. Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Well...this is going about as expected...another advertised blast of fall air gets to about I-20 and then is shunted by some sort of marine influence. I see the dewpoint boundary has went nowhere since last night, still sitting about 50 miles south of ATL. Central and South GA, South Carolina Low Country will remain in a late summer airmass (60 degree dewpoints). This upper low in SC is throwing measurable precip all the way back to Greenville-Spartanburg and Charlotte, its keeping about 90 percent of NC in mid level overcast... This looks to be the trend possibly through the weekend...our closed low in SC will begin to lift tomorrow and may allow brighter skies in western areas that are cloudy today, might also allow dewpoint boundary to get farther south in GA/SC. However the global models are quickly converging to another closed off feature, this time in LA/MS, this will allow some moisture recovery for all of the southeast and by the weekend, some areas are getting wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 09/23/2014 12Z run of the GFS has 90 degree temps in Atlanta on Oct 6, sick of this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 There is another beautiful night on tap for GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 09/23/2014 12Z run of the GFS has 90 degree temps in Atlanta on Oct 6, sick of this.. Then, don't look at model output for 13 days in the future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 09/23/2014 12Z run of the GFS has 90 degree temps in Atlanta on Oct 6, sick of this.. We would currently be having a record hurricane season if the GFS verified at 13 days out this year. Take it with a grain of salt and expect it to be a bit warmer but 90's would be unlikely unless they are showing up 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 It's certainly possible of course, but not likely to see 90 in the ATL to CLT area in October. I do remember a streak of record setting days in October of 1986 of temps in the low to mid 90's though. That October was followed by one of the best winters I can remember around here. One big snowstorm in Jan and a sleetstorm in Feb along with several near misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 It's certainly possible of course, but not likely to see 90 in the ATL to CLT area in October. I do remember a streak of record setting days in October of 1986 of temps in the low to mid 90's though. That October was followed by one of the best winters I can remember around here. One big snowstorm in Jan and a sleetstorm in Feb along with several near misses. A couple of years ago, we had some 90s in October around here. That year featured a very hot summer. I'll be glad when all of the talk of 90s is gone. The Euro shows a few days in the longer range with big ridging over the east. That looks to start to break down by D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 09/23/2014 12Z run of the GFS has 90 degree temps in Atlanta on Oct 6, sick of this.. that is pretty much unheard of. I think the latest Atlanta has hit 90 is in early October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 that is pretty much unheard of. I think the latest Atlanta has hit 90 is in early October. Yes, sir, you're correct. The latest 90+ for KATL (sorry, Tony, I'm looking at the beloved airport again) was on 10/9. Also, the last time it hit 90+ on any day in Oct. was way back in 1954! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Yes, sir, you're correct. The latest 90+ for KATL (sorry, Tony, I'm looking at the beloved airport again) was on 10/9. Also, the last time it hit 90+ on any day in Oct. was way back in 1954! Did not know that. Would have thought it was later. At KDCA its October 11. 2007 featured a stretch of 4 90 degree days. Latest one there recently was 10/9/2007 at 94 degrees, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 In case anyone is interested, these are verification scores for GSP POP averaged over the last 90 days. GSP's official fcst is the upper left and various guidances are shown in the other charts. These are reliability charts (fcst/obs)...basically how the fcst did wrt to obs. For example...on the Day 1 chart, GSP's POP of 50% was under forecasted...the actual POP was about 63%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 In case anyone is interested, these are verification scores for GSP POP averaged over the last 90 days. GSP's official fcst is the upper left and various guidances are shown in the other charts. These are reliability charts (fcst/obs)...basically how the fcst did wrt to obs. For example...on the Day 1 chart, GSP's POP of 50% was under forecasted...the actual POP was about 63%. pop1.png pop2.png pop3.png When is the Eastern Region moving to the media style graphics? i thought this was in the works, but maybe I haven't looked in a while! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Another spectacular day on tap for GA. Temps in the 70's with DP's mid 50's and lower all the way to the coast. Looks to be sunny all the way through Friday/Saturday for western parts of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 The GFS and Euro start to break down the ridging over the south and southeast by D10, if they're to be believed. So for those of you that are ready for Fall, that seems to be a good time frame to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 When is the Eastern Region moving to the media style graphics? i thought this was in the works, but maybe I haven't looked in a while! :-) You mean like the "Weather Story" graphics? I'm not sure, but I imagine within the next year. I haven't heard any traffic on this. I'll ask our webmaster and let you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 You mean like the "Weather Story" graphics? I'm not sure, but I imagine within the next year. I haven't heard any traffic on this. I'll ask our webmaster and let you know. If that's what they are calling it! :-) Like these: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_southern_region_slideshow.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 GFS and Euro is coming into good agreement of an upper level low forming along the Lower Mississippi Valley late this weekend and SFC/850 low coming out of the Gulf...just looking at the maps aloft, this should be a fairly slow mover with a good moisture tap Look for future runs to begin ramping up the QPF from Mississippi northeast to the TN Valley/SoApps. For clarification I'm talking in the Sunday- Tuesday timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 64 degrees for a high at KCLT yesterday. The coolest high for that day since 1995. 95-96 repeat incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 64 degrees for a high at KCLT yesterday. The coolest high for that day since 1995. 95-96 repeat incoming.That was a very good winter down here! A couple of minor events and a few decent events, I think one was even an ULL event! I would take a 95/96Redux in a heartbeat! I think that year featured an early event around Nov. 9th or so, where we had a car topper sleet/snow event, enough for a few snowballs and it was quiet till Jan, iirc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 64 degrees for a high at KCLT yesterday. The coolest high for that day since 1995. 95-96 repeat incoming. That was the winter that everyone in the dorms at NC State cut their trash cans and made sleds out of them. Lots of snow with a THICK layer of Ice on top that you could not break through. They delayed the start of the spring semester because the roads were so bad. We went sledding down the hill in the quad area. It seemed like one run lasted a half a mile. The absolute best sledding that I had ever been a part of! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreezeWarning1 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Yes, sir, you're correct. The latest 90+ for KATL (sorry, Tony, I'm looking at the beloved airport again) was on 10/9. Also, the last time it hit 90+ on any day in Oct. was way back in 1954! Wrong and wrong. 10/12/1979 - 90F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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