FallsLake Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Finally, some real fall weather coming: TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIANSURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THEWAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOXBEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALLCONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLEWEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 It looks like in about 10 days or so, the window might be open for some tropical mischief off the SE coast or in the Gulf. Generally, the models are showing troughing over the west and ridging over the east. Depending on which model you look at, some of them develop a cyclone in the Gulf or the Atlantic in the 10-15 day window. It's worth keeping an eye on, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 It looks like in about 10 days or so, the window might be open for some tropical mischief off the SE coast or in the Gulf. Generally, the models are showing troughing over the west and ridging over the east. Depending on which model you look at, some of them develop a cyclone in the Gulf or the Atlantic in the 10-15 day window. It's worth keeping an eye on, IMO.It sounds about right. I am going to Ocean Isle beach the week of Oct 15th, so I was wondering if there could be a threat/something to watch! I will be keeping an eye on these things as we get closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Finally, some real fall weather coming: TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOX BEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALL CONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70 TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. That sounds awesome. I'm looking forward to Fall days with highs in the 50's... i may be pushing it a bit...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Finally, some real fall weather coming: TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOX BEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALL CONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70 TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. I'd like to see some upper 40's verify but I think it will be hard, EPS mean is much more warmer than the OP Euro and the GEFS is much more colder than it should be. Anywho, lows in the lower to mid 50s sounds about right! Loving next wee's forecast for sure though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 It looks like in about 10 days or so, the window might be open for some tropical mischief off the SE coast or in the Gulf. Generally, the models are showing troughing over the west and ridging over the east. Depending on which model you look at, some of them develop a cyclone in the Gulf or the Atlantic in the 10-15 day window. It's worth keeping an eye on, IMO. GFS feels good about the gulf producing something in the long range but there isn't a ton of ensemble support. If what the operational is showing does come to fruition, look for somewhere along the gulf coast to get hammered. Might have to make a trip down if the GFS were to be correct but it is wayyy to early to tell. Maybe we can get the shear to die down enough where something can get going, but I will wait until the Euro starts to show something forming around day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 GFS feels good about the gulf producing something in the long range but there isn't a ton of ensemble support. If what the operational is showing does come to fruition, look for somewhere along the gulf coast to get hammered. Might have to make a trip down if the GFS were to be correct but it is wayyy to early to tell. Maybe we can get the shear to die down enough where something can get going, but I will wait until the Euro starts to show something forming around day 5. 12z GFS doesn't really show much. We'll see.... The CFS shows cooler than normal over the SE for weeks 1 and 2 and warmer than normal for weeks 3 and 4. It shows pretty much drier than normal conditions for all four weeks, with the exception of the coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 12z GFS doesn't really show much. We'll see.... The CFS shows cooler than normal over the SE for weeks 1 and 2 and warmer than normal for weeks 3 and 4. It shows pretty much drier than normal conditions for all four weeks, with the exception of the coastal areas. Yeah just saw that. Typical GFS. It did this type thing at the beginning of hurricane season when it was showing gulf development in the long range for like 2 consecutive weeks. Nonetheless something to watch during an otherwise boring period of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 So when does this cool down begin? I've been hearing about it for 2 weeks or so and it's been in the 80 ish range and 86 tomorrow and lows of 65 or better, does not seem cool or refreshing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 So when does this cool down begin? I've been hearing about it for 2 weeks or so and it's been in the 80 ish range and 86 tomorrow and lows of 65 or better, does not seem cool or refreshing Just going off dew points, the 12z GFS has 40s showing up from upper GA through a good portion of NC and Vir. at hour 72 onwards. There are 30s in the mountains of NC and Vir. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=09&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=72¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 Our taste of fall may be relatively short-lived if the GFS is correct. East flow may try to take over again by next weekend starting along the coast and working west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 Euro now showing a tropical wave/low moving ashore along the gulf coast at day 10. GFS has not shown anything of the sort in the last day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 We are getting to that time of the year where you can get some unique blocking scenarios...I want to see the runs continue on the GFS and Euro before I throw my chips in...but if this is correct. moisture may really begin to stream into the Southeast sometime next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 We are getting to that time of the year where you can get some unique blocking scenarios... I want to see the runs continue on the GFS and Euro before I throw my chips in...but if this is correct. moisture may really begin to stream into the Southeast sometime next weekend... Ya Robert has been hinting at this scenario also for the past couple of weeks. I would not mind the rain after such a beautiful week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 Once again...model support (at least GFS, haven't seen 12z Euro?) for what looks like a very nice 3-4 day stretch in the interior Southeast but by next weekend, a tight squeeze play where the ridge and a developing upper low pumps the moisture back northward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 Once again...model support (at least GFS, haven't seen 12z Euro?) for what looks like a very nice 3-4 day stretch in the interior Southeast but by next weekend, a tight squeeze play where the ridge and a developing upper low pumps the moisture back northward... How long does the moisture stay with us before another cold front dries us out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 How long does the moisture stay with us before another cold front dries us out ? Well...looking at the 850 mb moisture profile...winds begin to turn east on Thursday as a ridge forms north of the area...winds stay east and then bend to southeast by Sunday/Monday of the next week. So...we may be talking a 3-4 day run with it peaking next weekend. Then as we go post-truncation, eyes could again shift off the Southeast Coast as trough hangs off the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 CFSv2 is going to end up doing OK for Sept temps...yeah we are cool the next 2-3 days but then go back to seasonal if not above normal to finish off the month. So far through 9/20 CFSv2 forecast for Sept... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Euro v/S American guidance on the ULL cut off over SC. Man if this was dead of winter it would be a classic short term model war as far as who gets moisture and who doesn't. .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...TODAY: THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AT 05Z THISMORNING WILL TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE COAST TODAY ASSTRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OFPOTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. COLDADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY IN MOSTAREAS... THOUGH PRIMARILY IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGINGFROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INCENTRAL NC.TONIGHT: PRIOR MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACHINGSHORTWAVE AND INDICATED IT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 06-09Z TUE.HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AND SHOWS ASTRONGER/MORE ROBUST WAVE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSING OFF INTOAN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE SC TONIGHT...THEN STALLING OVER CENTRALPORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE AND PERHAPS TUE NIGHT AS IT ISCUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF CLOUD COVERAND PRECIPITATION ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER COASTALPORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENTIN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTCOASTAL PLAIN (CUMBERLAND/WAYNE/ SAMPSON)...AND THE FORECAST EAST OFI-95 WILL LIKELY NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THANPREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAINTONIGHT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER40S TO LOWER 50S FAR N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S FAR SE COASTALPLAIN. -VINCENT&&.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 255 AM MONDAY......FORECAST RAPIDLY TRENDING CLOUDY/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTSTHAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIGFURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRALPORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLEDBAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE ANINVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OFTHE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEPPRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHTWITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THESOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00ZOPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. ATTHIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECTMOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPSSTRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON) AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN INTHE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BEEXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAMGUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. -VINCENT&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 For the second time in as many weeks...big surge of Autumn airmass looks to be negated for those I-20 and Southward... Upper low is going to cutoff over South Carolina tonight, once that departs, easterly flow takes over the Southeast as high pressure develops to the north... And this morning's Euro hints at a significant southern cutoff and possible tropical/sub-tropical low coming out of the Gulf and bringing a moisture pump into the Southeast by next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 For the second time in as many weeks...big surge of Autumn airmass looks to be negated for those I-20 and Southward... Upper low is going to cutoff over South Carolina tonight, once that departs, easterly flow takes over the Southeast as high pressure develops to the north... And this morning's Euro hints at a significant southern cutoff and possible tropical/sub-tropical low coming out of the Gulf and bringing a moisture pump into the Southeast by next weekend... I'm south of I-20 and dewpoint is 48 with temps in the 70s under full sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I'm south of I-20 and dewpoint is 50 with temps in the 70s. The front is oriented NW to SE. How far west you are is a big factor on which side of the front you end up on. I believe he was talking about the Carolinas as here in GA I-20 is not even close to the cutoff for the beautiful airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 The front is oriented NW to SE. How far west you are is a big factor on which side of the front you end up on. I believe he was talking about the Carolinas as here in GA I-20 is not even close to the cutoff for the beautiful airmass. It certainly doesn't feel like summer, even though technically it still is until tonight. If only every summer day was like today. Spectacular weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I'm south of I-20 and dewpoint is 48 with temps in the 70s under full sunshine. Your winds will be going easterly by Wednesday, clouds and overcast will invade by then... Enjoy the brief shot of refreshing air while it lasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Your winds will be going easterly by Wednesday, clouds and overcast will invade by then... Enjoy the brief shot of refreshing air while it lasts... FFC says mostly sunny through Friday then Partly Sunny by Saturday with lows in the 50s each night. When you say clouds and overcast will invade, are you saying we are going to have a lot of rain also ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Your winds will be going easterly by Wednesday, clouds and overcast will invade by then... Enjoy the brief shot of refreshing air while it lasts... It won't be that brief Marion at least here in West/NW GA. We will possibly transition to a more wedge like pattern towards the end of the week but temps will remain suppressed and DP's should stay pretty low <60. It should remain gorgeous here until at least late Thursday. Then who knows really..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 It won't be that brief Marion at least here in West/NW GA. We will possibly transition to a more wedge like pattern towards the end of the week but temps will remain suppressed and DP's should stay pretty low <60. It should remain gorgeous here until at least late Thursday. Then who knows really..... I wonder if I should cancel my weekend outdoor plans. Do you think it will be a washout ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I wonder if I should cancel my weekend outdoor plans. Do you think it will be a washout ? I wouldn't cancel but be aware the weather could change pretty quickly towards the end of the week for our area. I wouldn't trust the models past 3-4 days myself considering we are transitioning from summer to fall and models tend to struggle with transition periods imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I wouldn't cancel but be aware the weather could change pretty quickly towards the end of the week for our area. I wouldn't trust the models past 3-4 days myself considering we are transitioning from summer to fall and models tend to struggle with transition periods imo. Yeah, I get the feeling that there's a lot of uncertainty for Friday through Monday. Some say we may not get any rain, some say we may get a lot of rain. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I'm not thinking a washout for those inland...Carolina or GA coastline could go wet by Wednesday/Thurs... But more clouds and wedge-like conditions will increase starting Thursday farther west. Dewpoints will bounce back up as a result to the 50's, maybe as high as 60... We seem to have entered a pattern where everything hangs up between I-20 and I-10...we can't get a powerful front to flush everything offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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