superjames1992 Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 The weather this week looks awesome! Looks like fall has arrived. Yes! Highs in the low 70s, lows in the mid/upper 50s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 06 GFS went crazy with the long range temps. At day 12 it indicates dew points in the 30s for a good portion of the NC, SC, Ga, Alabama piedmont/mountains. There is a large area of below 30 degrees showing up in western NC down through north Ga (even some mid 20s in western SC!!). If this actually was to occur there could some very early frost/freezes across the SE. Now I know this is day 12 (and the 12z might show something totally different), but there's not much more to track. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=09&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=06&fhour=288¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 06 GFS went crazy with the long range temps. At day 12 it indicates dew points in the 30s for a good portion of the NC, SC, Ga, Alabama piedmont/mountains. There is a large area of below 30 degrees showing up in western NC down through north Ga (even some mid 20s in western SC!!). If this actually was to occur there could some very early frost/freezes across the SE. Now I know this is day 12 (and the 12z might show something totally different), but there's not much more to track. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=09&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=06&fhour=288¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Not unheard of for late September. I've seen lows in the upper 30s in late September. I believe it was 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Mid 20s in September in Upstate SC, would be very impressive! Would have to be record breaking. Probly just the GFS warming up for a winter of amazing arctic outbreaks showing up in the long range, only to never materialize! This will be a good first test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Not unheard of for late September. I've seen lows in the upper 30s in late September. I believe it was 2001. Hey, how bout a little enthusiasm, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Mid 20s in September in Upstate SC, would be very impressive! Would have to be record breaking. Probly just the GFS warming up for a winter of amazing arctic outbreaks showing up in the long range, only to never materialize! This will be a good first test. Just to be clear on Falls' map: The mid 20s were dew points, not temperatures. Temperatures for the same time frame are forecasted to be in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Just to be clear on Falls' map: The mid 20s were dew points, not temperatures. Temperatures for the same time frame are forecasted to be in the 40s. Exactly, actual temps would be higher. Now if we actually get dew points this low and if there are clear/calm nights the temp would have a chance to get closer to the dew point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Just to be clear on Falls' map: The mid 20s were dew points, not temperatures. Temperatures for the same time frame are forecasted to be in the 40s. That would be the recipe the get the fall colors to really take off in the mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 New Euro just dropped a big dog cold front for early next week....0 deg 850 in NC Mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 New Euro just dropped a big dog cold front for early next week....0 deg 850 in NC Mtns. Ya the Euro has been showing this a bit in the long range. Pretty interesting setup on the low coming down from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Here's a bit of climate data to verify these possibilities. Most locations have seen sub 40 temps throughout the second half of september since we have been collecting climate data. Asheville: Greenville/Spartanburg: Greensboro: Couldn't get the last two in the screen shot but they were 37 & 35. RDU: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Ya the Euro has been showing this a bit in the long range. Pretty interesting setup on the low coming down from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Looking at the latest model runs it still looks like there will be some kind of major cool down in the extended. As we expected, with a 10-12 day period, each run shows a different outcome(dry and cool, wet and cool, maybe frost, etc.); but the outcome depicted continuously shows a cool pattern for the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Looking at the latest model runs it still looks like there will be some kind of major cool down in the extended. As we expected, with a 10-12 day period, each run shows a different outcome(dry and cool, wet and cool, maybe frost, etc.); but the outcome depicted continuously shows a cool pattern for the end of the month. And Wow's GOA low/trough hangs in there pretty much through the balance of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 And Wow's GOA low/trough hangs in there pretty much through the balance of the month. I'm ready to stop using the air conditioning. Need at least one nice electric bill... I'm kind of torn for what I want to see going into October. We keep hearing about the statistics of a warm October leads to a cold winter, but the weather fanatic in me always wants it cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I'm ready to stop using the air conditioning. Need at least one nice electric bill... I'm kind of torn for what I want to see going into October. We keep hearing about the statistics of a warm October leads to a cold winter, but the weather fanatic in me always wants it cold... Yeah, I'm with you on the cold. I'm ready to get a fire going in the fireplace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 The GFS in the 10 day range wants to build heights over the Eastern parts of the U.S. Could lead to a warm ending to September. The PNA is forecasted to go sharply negative, so this solution of the GFS may hold some truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 The GFS in the 10 day range wants to build heights over the Eastern parts of the U.S. Could lead to a warm ending to September. The PNA is forecasted to go sharply negative, so this solution of the GFS may hold some truth. ouch, torch city for the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 The GFS in the 10 day range wants to build heights over the Eastern parts of the U.S. Could lead to a warm ending to September. The PNA is forecasted to go sharply negative, so this solution of the GFS may hold some truth. Remember a warm start to October is not statistically bad if your looking for a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 ^ Yup! We want to see a warmer October, a central/west-based weak (maybe low end moderate) El Nino setting up, a rapid increase in Siberian snow cover as we head through October, and lower heights in the GOA through the balance of September. Did I miss anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I'm pretty sure we had a warm Oct/Nov in 87/88 winter, before the big one!!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 The 12z GFS shows the pattern Kory mentioned, but it also shows a pretty stout high pressure hanging out in the GL, NE, and off the NE coast around roughly the same time frame. 500mb looks torchy, but the high might offset that to some degree. Looks pretty dry for many in the SE until way out in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 The 12z GFS shows the pattern Kory mentioned, but it also shows a pretty stout high pressure hanging out in the GL, NE, and off the NE coast around roughly the same time frame. 500mb looks torchy, but the high might offset that to some degree. Looks pretty dry for many in the SE until way out in fantasy land.I remember that we had a dry and warm period around this time last year in Tuscaloosa as well. We went about 4 weeks without a drop of rain from late August through late September and highs well into the 90s. It was nice for tailgating and the football games because you didn't have to worry about it being sloppy or a game being rained out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I'm pretty sure we had a warm Oct/Nov in 87/88 winter, before the big one!!? Mack, In KATL, Oct. 87 was cooler than normal. However, Nov. and Dec. were warmer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Nothing unusual about being in a dry pattern this time of year. It is our dry season after all. I've seen years when we went 2 months without a drop of rain in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Just to clarify things, when people say things are looking torchy in October, that means probably very comfortable weather with temps in the 80s and low humidity, right ? Not 90+ with dp in the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 It's September 17th. Autumn is near; winter is not so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I swear this morning my weatherbug forecast said 70% chance of storms today, and now there is no mention of rain at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I swear this morning my weatherbug forecast said 70% chance of storms today, and now there is no mention of rain at all. My weatherbug said mostly sunny and 80 all day. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 there is talk of a low pressure developing off of the SE coast this weekend... and TWC saying 20% chance of development... any reliable models showing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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