SnowGator Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Thank you for that link. Wow that's a great and useful table! So it definitely proves the JFM theory for sure. I notice that it says hail is also included under snowfall. Could that make the average for March higher than it otherwise would be ? March can have some big hailstorms in the south. I noticed no mention of the March storm of 1993 in Atlanta where we all got multiple inches...like eight inches right off the interstate in a condo in Cobb County. (Where no cars could drive up the hill to get out of the condo complex due to the icy mix on the road for a couple of days straight straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 I noticed no mention of the March storm of 1993 in Atlanta where we all got multiple inches...like eight inches right off the interstate in a condo in Cobb County. (Where no cars could drive up the hill to get out of the condo complex due to the icy mix on the road for a couple of days straight straight. It's a table of climo averages, not individual storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I've lurked here for the past month or so and I don't come close to having the knowledge of any of y'all. Just enjoy reading the stuff on here and I'm a snow lover. With that said, I'm wondering why Weather Underground is calling for snow in GSP tonight? The meteograms I look at show no snow or precipitation, with the 12z GFS and NAM. Is the 12z Euro showing something or is this just a glitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I've lurked here for the past month or so and I don't come close to having the knowledge of any of y'all. Just enjoy reading the stuff on here and I'm a snow lover. With that said, I'm wondering why Weather Underground is calling for snow in GSP tonight? The meteograms I look at show no snow or precipitation, with the 12z GFS and NAM. Is the 12z Euro showing something or is this just a glitch? If you're looking at meteograms, the bolded is not nearly as bad as you think, I assure you! Welcome aboard to the...uh, board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 I've lurked here for the past month or so and I don't come close to having the knowledge of any of y'all. Just enjoy reading the stuff on here and I'm a snow lover. With that said, I'm wondering why Weather Underground is calling for snow in GSP tonight? The meteograms I look at show no snow or precipitation, with the 12z GFS and NAM. Is the 12z Euro showing something or is this just a glitch? Brad Panovich said it best on Twitter. Brad Panovich @wxbrad 26m26 minutes ago No snow tonight across the piedmont, Reason #123 why you shouldn't use or rely on "crap apps" #cltwx #snOMG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 The D10 Euro map is not a warm one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 The D10 Euro map is not a warm one. f240.gif Unfortunately its a transient cold shot with averageish temps on each side of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Fortunately its a transient cold shot with averageish temps on each side of that. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Unfortunately its a transient cold shot with averageish temps on each side of that. Can't see the D11 map, but it's better than a sustained warm-up. I'm fine with a variable pattern, especially in November. Some were concerned that a big warm-up was coming, but according to the Euro, that doesn't look to be the case. Definitely not a horrible pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Can't see the D11 map, but it's better than a sustained warm-up. I'm fine with a variable pattern, especially in November. Some were concerned that a big warm-up was coming, but according to the Euro, that doesn't look to be the case. Definitely not a horrible pattern. I AGREE . last night euro ensembles had a eastern neg tilted trough look at day 10. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Can't see the D11 map, but it's better than a sustained warm-up. I'm fine with a variable pattern, especially in November. Some were concerned that a big warm-up was coming, but according to the Euro, that doesn't look to be the case. Definitely not a horrible pattern. I can, the main system lifts to the lakes (seems certain), but there is an impluse behind it which takes a more southerly route, taking on a negative tilt in central Georgia. If there is a way to have a chance at something around Thanksgiving for the southern apps, this is it - but it would have to set up and play out perfectly. There is a lot of ridging off the west coast (not ideal) during this time frame, but the orientation of the ridging into Alaska should help change the source region from Pacific in nature to Arctic. Definitely NOT a warm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Thanks for the additional context, guys. Also, from reading the NE forum, the strat warming forecasts are pretty favorable. Should pay dividends down the road, if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 D10 just doesn't look cold enough imo. It could change but this doesn't look bad or torchy by any means just nothing that jumps out as a snow setup to me. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I can, the main system lifts to the lakes (seems certain), but there is an impluse behind it which takes a more southerly route, taking on a negative tilt in central Georgia. If there is a way to have a chance at something around Thanksgiving for the southern apps, this is it - but it would have to set up and play out perfectly. There is a lot of ridging off the west coast (not ideal) during this time frame, but the orientation of the ridging into Alaska should help change the source region from Pacific in nature to Arctic. Definitely NOT a warm pattern.yeah the ensembles have hinted at this for a couple days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 D10 just doesn't look cold enough imo. It could change but this doesn't look bad or torchy by any means just nothing that jumps out as a snow setup to me. JMO. ecmwf_T850_seus_11.png ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png That's pretty zonal. Boring weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 That's pretty zonal. Boring weather! Zonal, really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Marietta, I didn't mean to indicate that a snowstorm was coming...just that the pattern didn't look like a big warm-up. It's most definitely not a snow pattern. It wouldn't be impossible at that range for things to evolve to where somebody could get some snow, but it would take some work. But that's not what I was talking about. Maybe you weren't replying to me though. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Marietta, I didn't mean to indicate that a snowstorm was coming...just that the pattern didn't look like a big warm-up. It's most definitely not a snow pattern. It wouldn't be impossible at that range for things to evolve to where somebody could get some snow, but it would take some work. But that's not what I was talking about. Maybe you weren't replying to me though. lol Just putting in my two cents, didn't mean to imply you or anyone else was saying that snow was looking like a possibility on D10-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Just putting in my two cents, didn't mean to imply you or anyone else was saying that snow was looking like a possibility on D10-11. Gotcha. No worries. Sounds like we're in pretty much agreement it not really being a snow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Bufkit' warmest temp for KCLT tomorrow is 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 That's pretty zonal. Boring weather! Euro ensembles look boring.............and fairly zonal, like the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Euro ensembles look boring.............and fairly zonal, like the GFS ensembles. Yeah -- DT suggested a few days ago that the Pac jet is about to crash the west coast and make things more zonal for a while. Unfortunately, I don't recall his definition of " a while" (or whetever words he actually used). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Euro ensembles look boring.............and fairly zonal, like the GFS ensembles. Not real worried about it the ensembles have been all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Not real worried about it the ensembles have been all over the place I am not worried at all, but the Euro op is kind of on its own with ridging out west. I would enjoy a warm up and that's a distinct possibility. I'd actually like it to stay warm till mid December, then flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yes, I know it's only anomalies, and it's way out there, but wow ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 ^ Yep, it's gonna be a smidge warm in front of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yes, I know it's only anomalies, and it's way out there, but wow ... gfsp_T2ma_us_32.png Nothing says Thanksgiving like 70-80 degree highs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 ^ Yup and Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yeah -- DT suggested a few days ago that the Pac jet is about to crash the west coast and make things more zonal for a while. Unfortunately, I don't recall his definition of " a while" (or whetever words he actually used). Yep, he called for a warm SE and avg for MA/NE for Dec. He has it cold in the NW for Dec. He hasn't backed off this. Just from the seasonal modeling alone it's hard to argue against it. I would venture a guess we are going to have wait until our typical mid-Jan to mid-Feb to see chances for the SE. But, I do think we will have at least a couple of chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yes, I know it's only anomalies, and it's way out there, but wow ... gfsp_T2ma_us_32.png Ridiculous! I saw the NOAA forecast for Monday is a crazy 69, so that map may verify. Going to feel more like April fools than thanksgiving. Loving the next couple days though. Amazing the amount of snow around the country already. I can't help but feel skipped, even though it is only mid November, considering how so many places have already seen it. I'm hoping against that early Dec torch guys!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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