POWERSTROKE Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Lets face it. Outside of the mountains, our normal months with snow potential are, two of maybe with a possible on both ends. Exactly right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Depends where you're at. Obviously the further north you are the best chance at snow in March. Heck even seen snow here in NC in April. We've had snow in April in Atlanta as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 OK Before this starts another argument, here's the info. https://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/avgsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 OK Before this starts another argument, here's the info. https://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/avgsnowfall.html Thank you for that link. Wow that's a great and useful table! So it definitely proves the JFM theory for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Besides the snow, the difference in the eastern US between two runs ago and this one is huge temperaturewise 11/20-2 with this new Arctic high now dropping well down into the SE US! Two runs ago, this Arctic high didn't even exist. If this Euro happens to reflect reality, a top ten cold Nov. would become quite possible for much of the SE along with the coldest Nov. since 1976 as well as an outside shot at a top five cold one! Well the Euro ENS day 11-15 are not warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I know since 2000 the Triangle has had more wintry weather in December and January than February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 OK Before this starts another argument, here's the info. https://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/avgsnowfall.html No arguing here. I go by how much we work in those months for wintry weather. I'm sure some get more than others in the SE. But I do like chart u put up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 OK Before this starts another argument, here's the info. https://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/avgsnowfall.html Wow. I didn't realize the averages were so low in NC,SC and Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 OK Before this starts another argument, here's the info. https://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/avgsnowfall.html I notice that it says hail is also included under snowfall. Could that make the average for March higher than it otherwise would be ? March can have some big hailstorms in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Not a chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Well the GFS Para brought the real fantasy snow for 18z. Only 10 - 20 inches for NC/SC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Well the GFS Para brought the real fantasy snow for 18z. Only 10 - 20 inches for NC/SC! how much for GA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 how much for GA ? It seems like I heard it sounded like a goodly amount. Brick, can you confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Well the GFS Para brought the real fantasy snow for 18z. Only 10 - 20 inches for NC/SC! We step away for just a little bit and all kinds of good patterns and fantasy snow start showing up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 who cares what the P-GFS shows for a specific region, its going to change over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 more wintry weather in March than December ? Its colder in December, the sun angle is lower, the ground is colder, there's more snowpack to our north. Why on earth would we get more snow in March than December ? Btw, I don't recall a snowfall imby in the month of March of any significance in nearly 22 years. I'm pretty sure your area averages more snow in March than December. I know MBY does. The March average is significantly larger than the December average, actually, and perhaps most impressively, the vast majority of the March average falls within the first two weeks of the month, so the first two weeks of March are actually one of the snowiest portions of the winter in these parts. Meanwhile, we average 0.1" of snow per March. That's half of Waycross' average snowfall per winter! In other words, why are we freaking out that it's not snowing in November? It almost never does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Maybe MBY does average more in March than December, although in the last 20 years I can think of at least 5 decent snows in December and none in March. Of course the foot of snow we had in March 1993 kind of skews things a bit if you are looking at the past 30 years. Btw we got pretty much nothing in March 2009. It seems like if we do get snow in March it's a BIG snow. March 1993 for example and also in the early 1980s I believe. Atlanta had one of it's biggest snowstorms ever at the end of March. So those RARE snowstorms in March in GA usually produce a lot of snow which when averaged over a period of time make it seem snowier than December. But I really do think we get snow more frequently in December. It's just that when it snows in December we don't have the huge amounts we do in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Maybe MBY does average more in March than December, although in the last 20 years I can think of at least 5 decent snows in December and none in March. Of course the foot of snow we had in March 1993 kind of skews things a bit if you are looking at the past 30 years. Btw we got pretty much nothing in March 2009. March 1993 and 2009 obviously bump the average way up for ATL, but I can't think of a single notable December storm off the top of my head either (actually, maybe you guys got some snow with 12/25/2010?). March has actually been great here in recent years. March 2009 had a 6" storm. March 2010 had a 2" storm. March 2014 had multiple storms (mostly ice storms), including a decent snow event for some areas on 3/3 (just 0.5" IMBY, though), a terrible ice storm on 3/6, another decent snow/ice event on 3/17, and a couple more trace snows before the month was over. When I think of recent wintry months in this area, March 2014 has to be up there. EDIT: And other historic March storms include March 1980, March 1981, March 1983, March 1984, etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Wow. I didn't realize the averages were so low in NC,SC and Georgia. Haha, yep! Welcome to the South! My area actually beat out DCA quite a few times in the 2000s, though, despite averaging about half their annual snowfall, so you just never know. We just don't get any 60"+ winters around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It seems like I heard it sounded like a goodly amount. Brick, can you confirm?It's gonna be cold Tuesday and Wednesday ! If its not gonna snow, I want it warm and sunny- Brick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The 6z GFS is "currently" showing a cool/cold Thanksgiving (at day 11). Still too far out to put much weight in this but looking good so far. **as others have said I don't want a warm Thanksgiving. Day 10: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_240_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=240&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141116+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=85 Day 11: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=276&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141116+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Haha, yep! Welcome to the South! My area actually beat out DCA quite a few times in the 2000s, though, despite averaging about half their annual snowfall, so you just never know. We just don't get any 60"+ winters around here. HAHA.. Oh man, its easy to beat DCA for snow totals- the notroious snow pit from hell for the Mid-Atlantic. I wish it wasnt the site of record for DC. Its just sooooooo not representative of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 HAHA.. Oh man, its easy to beat DCA for snow totals- the notroious snow pit from hell for the Mid-Atlantic. I wish it wasnt the site of record for DC. Its just sooooooo not representative of the area. As I was saying before, you do live in a part of the SE that can get a big winter storm(there are many places that really have little chance). And what I mean by a big winter storm is a storm that would be considered significant to even the NE folks. Many years we wont get that big storm but we're able to hope; and that makes it's fun. Kind of like being the average football team and you're hoping to win the Super Bowl. It can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Per model consensus of 2 meter temperatures and also considering that high temp.'s (when there is an Arctic high around) sometimes verify a little colder than model consensus, KATL will have a shot at a record low maximum for 11/18. The current low max record going back to 1879 is 37. The consensus of last few runs of the Euro/GFS has KATL near -8C at 850. Using guidelines for max. temp.'s when 850's are near -8 C, a max in the 34-8 range would be suggested. The 12Z GFS has a max of 36 for KATL. The 6Z had 35, the 0Z had 34, and the 18Z had 35. There is little question that the GFS has a cold bias at 2 meters. However, that doesn't mean it is always too cold. In these Arctic situations and when considering the 850's being projected to be down to -8 C, it may very well not be too cold in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Well the GFS Para brought the real fantasy snow for 18z. Only 10 - 20 inches for NC/SC! Crazy seeing these storms showing up on the models in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 what is hard to believe about this upcoming week in MID NOV is the temps are forecasted to be what i would consider really cold in jan. lows in the teens and highs in the 30s - wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 what is hard to believe about this upcoming week in MID NOV is the temps are forecasted to be what i would consider really cold in jan. lows in the teens and highs in the 30s - wild Per a private forecasting source that I use, KATL is as of today's cooler forecast projected to end up with Nov. near 47.6 F, which would be the coldest one since 1976 as well as the 8th coldest going back to 1879! That would be near the 94th percentile for cold Novembers there and during a relatively warm multidecadal period to boot! The only colder ones than 47.6 are 1976, 1951, 1937, 1926, 1911, 1901, and 1880. **Edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 As I was saying before, you do live in a part of the SE that can get a big winter storm(there are many places that really have little chance). And what I mean by a big winter storm is a storm that would be considered significant to even the NE folks. Many years we wont get that big storm but we're able to hope; and that makes it's fun. Kind of like being the average football team and you're hoping to win the Super Bowl. It can happen. You're absolutely right and im thankful for that! Maybe i can bring us all some Mid-Atlantic snow mojo ala 09-10!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Per a private forecasting source that I use, KATL is as of today's cooler forecast projected to end up with Nov. near 47.6 F, which would be the coldest one since 1976 as well as the 8th coldest going back to 1879! That would be near the 94th percentile for cold Novembers there and during a relatively warm multidecadal period to boot! The only colder ones than 47.6 are 1976, 1951, 1937, 1926, 1911, 1901, and 1880. **Edited Wow that's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Per a private forecasting source that I use, KATL is as of today's cooler forecast projected to end up with Nov. near 47.6 F, which would be the coldest one since 1976 as well as the 8th coldest going back to 1879! That would be near the 94th percentile for cold Novembers there and during a relatively warm multidecadal period to boot! The only colder ones than 47.6 are 1976, 1951, 1937, 1926, 1911, 1901, and 1880. This map covers the temperature anomalies for Nov 1-16, plus the GFS forecast out 7 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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