Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread


jburns

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

@180 snow across NC parts of eastern GA and upstate of SC. Looks like around 2-4 inches for WNC. 

 

 Besides the snow, the difference in the eastern US between two runs ago and this one is huge temperaturewise 11/20-2 with this new Arctic high now dropping well down into the SE US! Two runs ago, this Arctic high didn't even exist.

 

 If this Euro happens to reflect reality, a top ten cold Nov. would become quite possible for much of the SE along with the coldest Nov. since 1976 as well as an outside shot at a top five cold one!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at last night's euro it could be sniffing something out again. The cold shot earlier in November, followed by today's and the one coming mid week have been very impressive for this time of year. And it looks like more may be on the way with moisture this time. Be interesting to see over the next few days if this is a hiccup or legit shot at some white stuff by the end of next week

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RAH was discussing how much the CAD would get eroded before the front passed on Monday. They are currently going with highs ranging from 50 in the NW to near 70 SE (20 degree range). But they said the warm front could push more inland pushing temps higher everywhere. Looking at the 6z GFS and NAM:

 

GFS - Keeps the CAD in place and never has dew points higher than 60 from Raleigh westward.

NAM - Erodes the CAD all the way back to the foothills with dew points above 60 everywhere (in the RAH forecast zones). 

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=06&fhour=60&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Link to comment
Share on other sites

THIS IS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILLS REPORT...
WHICH INCLUDES THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AROUND 7 AM THIS MORNING.


.BR GSP 1115 E DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ
:
:   STATION            ELEV: OBS   HIGH  LOW   24 HR  SNOW   SNOW
:   NAME                     TIME  TEMP  TEMP  PCPN   FALL   DEPTH

BELN7:BANNER ELK       3770:DH0700/ 20/   9/   0.10/   0.1/     0
BCHN7:BEECH MOUNTAIN   5069:DH0700/ 15/   8/   0.00/   0.0/     0
BOON7:BOONE            3098:DH0600/ 24/  10/   0.00/   0.0/     0
FTSN7:FLAT SPRINGS     3355:DH0700/ 21/  12/   0.01/   0.3/     1
LNNN7:GRANDFATHER MTN  5300:DH0700/ 19/   9/   0.00/     M/     T
HTSN7:HOT SPRINGS      1400:DH0700/ 33/  17/   0.00/   0.0/     M
JFFN7:JEFFERSON        2770:DH1200/ 27/  11/   0.00/     M/     M
MRHN7:MARSHALL         1800:DH0700/ 31/  12/      T/     M/     M
MMTN7:MOUNT MITCHELL   6240:DH0700/ 21/   7/   0.00/     M/     M
MURN7:MURPHY           1800:DH0700/ 37/  17/   0.00/   0.0/     0
SPPN7:SPRUCE PINE      2500:DH0700/ 32/  11/   0.00/     M/     M
ROBN7:STECOAH          2150:DH0700/ 33/  18/   0.00/     M/     M
.END

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro is just a parade of cutters, OH is going to be at climo for snow by Dec 1.

I am afraid this is our primary winter pattern about to set up.

I hope I am wrong but i would weight it at a 60% chance now of validating.

It is going to be important that we can get some blockiness in the pattern to show up again the first of December.

Watch the pacific jet !

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the euro is correct here, i think it's likely some kind of winterstorm will manifest itself in this pattern. It really favors CAD as there is a confluent setup over the midwest and northeast. That's generated by the polar jet diving down over the great lakes and the undercutting stj colliding. AKA splitflow... Really favors possible quick hitting type of overrunning events.

 

 

 

141115201321.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The next month could be pretty benign winter weather wise for us folks. Be prepared for that as a likely outcome and try not to be butt hurt over it. There is a ton of winter left..... All of it to be exact. Even if we lose a couple weeks of met winter to a warm pattern, so what? It's not exactly prime time winter climo where we look for a parade of storms dropping snow usually. Patience grasshoppers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The next month could be pretty benign winter weather wise for us folks. Be prepared for that as a likely outcome and try not to be butt hurt over it. There is a ton of winter left..... All of it to be exact. Even if we lose a couple weeks of met winter to a warm pattern, so what? It's not exactly prime time winter climo where we look for a parade of storms dropping snow usually. Patience grasshoppers.

Any snow prior to Christmas outside of the mountains of WNC should be counted as a bonus for us folk in the southeast. We don't live in Buffalo, NY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Any snow prior to Christmas outside of the mountains of WNC should be counted as a bonus for us folk in the southeast. We don't live in Buffalo, NY.

agree completely.  obviously i would love to see accumulating snow in dec around here but honestly any flakes or flurries before the end of dec/early jan are usually bonus flakes for n ga anyway

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We get more wintry weather jan-Mar generally in the SE

more wintry weather in March than December ? Its colder in December, the sun angle is lower, the ground is colder, there's more snowpack to our north. Why on earth would we get more snow in March than December ?

Btw, I don't recall a snowfall imby in the month of March of any significance in nearly 22 years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

more wintry weather in March than December ? Its colder in December, the sun angle is lower, the ground is colder, there's more snowpack to our north. Why on earth would we get more snow in March than December ?

Btw, I don't recall a snowfall imby in the month of March of any significance in nearly 22 years.

Depends where you're at. Obviously the further north you are the best chance at snow in March. Heck even seen snow here in NC in April.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

more wintry weather in March than December ? Its colder in December, the sun angle is lower, the ground is colder, there's more snowpack to our north. Why on earth would we get more snow in March than December ?

Btw, I don't recall a snowfall imby in the month of March of any significance in nearly 22 years.

I'm saying we generally get more Jan - March. We used to never get anything in December the last 12 years yes we have. 02 03 10 for sure. Last year we got a wintry mix in November very little in December then more Jan and February with a little black ice in March. I base mine off of work.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...