burgertime Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Euro looks close to something big past 150. Doesn't quite get it done but it wouldn't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 @180 snow across NC parts of eastern GA and upstate of SC. Looks like around 2-4 inches for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 @180 snow across NC parts of eastern GA and upstate of SC. Looks like around 2-4 inches for WNC. Besides the snow, the difference in the eastern US between two runs ago and this one is huge temperaturewise 11/20-2 with this new Arctic high now dropping well down into the SE US! Two runs ago, this Arctic high didn't even exist. If this Euro happens to reflect reality, a top ten cold Nov. would become quite possible for much of the SE along with the coldest Nov. since 1976 as well as an outside shot at a top five cold one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Yeah there are a lot of changes going on over the past few days on the models. Know like Burger and Larry have mentioned it looks as if we could see another push of cold air around the 21-22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Testing the Memphis theory... NWS Memphis @NWSMemphis Ready for more winter weather? Rain should change to snow north of I-40 Sun night. Light accumulations possible. pic.twitter.com/L6Qvr1joLH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Just glancing at the 6z GFS, I would say it is starting to look colder over the next two weeks. It even looks like there could be a threat at the end of the run, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Looking at last night's euro it could be sniffing something out again. The cold shot earlier in November, followed by today's and the one coming mid week have been very impressive for this time of year. And it looks like more may be on the way with moisture this time. Be interesting to see over the next few days if this is a hiccup or legit shot at some white stuff by the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 18 degrees for the low this morning right along the Blue Ridge. Models, as nice as they are, never can truly capture the extent of arctic cold. Tuesday shall be fun to watch the numbers across I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Just glancing at the 6z GFS, I would say it is starting to look colder over the next two weeks. It even looks like there could be a threat at the end of the run, but who knows. I have noticed that as well; this should be a active season for a change, lots of things to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 RAH was discussing how much the CAD would get eroded before the front passed on Monday. They are currently going with highs ranging from 50 in the NW to near 70 SE (20 degree range). But they said the warm front could push more inland pushing temps higher everywhere. Looking at the 6z GFS and NAM: GFS - Keeps the CAD in place and never has dew points higher than 60 from Raleigh westward. NAM - Erodes the CAD all the way back to the foothills with dew points above 60 everywhere (in the RAH forecast zones). http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=06&fhour=60¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 THIS IS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILLS REPORT...WHICH INCLUDES THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATIONFOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AROUND 7 AM THIS MORNING..BR GSP 1115 E DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ:: STATION ELEV: OBS HIGH LOW 24 HR SNOW SNOW: NAME TIME TEMP TEMP PCPN FALL DEPTHBELN7:BANNER ELK 3770:DH0700/ 20/ 9/ 0.10/ 0.1/ 0BCHN7:BEECH MOUNTAIN 5069:DH0700/ 15/ 8/ 0.00/ 0.0/ 0BOON7:BOONE 3098:DH0600/ 24/ 10/ 0.00/ 0.0/ 0FTSN7:FLAT SPRINGS 3355:DH0700/ 21/ 12/ 0.01/ 0.3/ 1LNNN7:GRANDFATHER MTN 5300:DH0700/ 19/ 9/ 0.00/ M/ THTSN7:HOT SPRINGS 1400:DH0700/ 33/ 17/ 0.00/ 0.0/ MJFFN7:JEFFERSON 2770:DH1200/ 27/ 11/ 0.00/ M/ MMRHN7:MARSHALL 1800:DH0700/ 31/ 12/ T/ M/ MMMTN7:MOUNT MITCHELL 6240:DH0700/ 21/ 7/ 0.00/ M/ MMURN7:MURPHY 1800:DH0700/ 37/ 17/ 0.00/ 0.0/ 0SPPN7:SPRUCE PINE 2500:DH0700/ 32/ 11/ 0.00/ M/ MROBN7:STECOAH 2150:DH0700/ 33/ 18/ 0.00/ M/ M.END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Euro is just a parade of cutters, OH is going to be at climo for snow by Dec 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Euro is just a parade of cutters, OH is going to be at climo for snow by Dec 1. Luckily, it will change at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 As long as Shetley gets some rain, everything will be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 As long as Shetley gets some rain, everything will be just fine. 12z Euro looks classic Nino, wet E/SE, precip max over E-TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 As long as Shetley gets some rain, everything will be just fine.I hope it's a rain cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Euro is just a parade of cutters, OH is going to be at climo for snow by Dec 1.I am afraid this is our primary winter pattern about to set up.I hope I am wrong but i would weight it at a 60% chance now of validating. It is going to be important that we can get some blockiness in the pattern to show up again the first of December. Watch the pacific jet ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Looks like November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Just thankful that Winter is not in the first of November. Seems that some here think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The 12z GFS looks great for the next system now, showing close to 1 inch of rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I am afraid this is our primary winter pattern about to set up. I hope I am wrong but i would weight it at a 60% chance now of validating. It is going to be important that we can get some blockiness in the pattern to show up again the first of December. Watch the pacific jet ! Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 If the euro is correct here, i think it's likely some kind of winterstorm will manifest itself in this pattern. It really favors CAD as there is a confluent setup over the midwest and northeast. That's generated by the polar jet diving down over the great lakes and the undercutting stj colliding. AKA splitflow... Really favors possible quick hitting type of overrunning events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The next month could be pretty benign winter weather wise for us folks. Be prepared for that as a likely outcome and try not to be butt hurt over it. There is a ton of winter left..... All of it to be exact. Even if we lose a couple weeks of met winter to a warm pattern, so what? It's not exactly prime time winter climo where we look for a parade of storms dropping snow usually. Patience grasshoppers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The next month could be pretty benign winter weather wise for us folks. Be prepared for that as a likely outcome and try not to be butt hurt over it. There is a ton of winter left..... All of it to be exact. Even if we lose a couple weeks of met winter to a warm pattern, so what? It's not exactly prime time winter climo where we look for a parade of storms dropping snow usually. Patience grasshoppers. Any snow prior to Christmas outside of the mountains of WNC should be counted as a bonus for us folk in the southeast. We don't live in Buffalo, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Any snow prior to Christmas outside of the mountains of WNC should be counted as a bonus for us folk in the southeast. We don't live in Buffalo, NY. agree completely. obviously i would love to see accumulating snow in dec around here but honestly any flakes or flurries before the end of dec/early jan are usually bonus flakes for n ga anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 We get more wintry weather jan-Mar generally in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 We get more wintry weather jan-Mar generally in the SE Lets face it. Outside of the mountains, our normal months with snow potential are, two of maybe with a possible on both ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 We get more wintry weather jan-Mar generally in the SE more wintry weather in March than December ? Its colder in December, the sun angle is lower, the ground is colder, there's more snowpack to our north. Why on earth would we get more snow in March than December ? Btw, I don't recall a snowfall imby in the month of March of any significance in nearly 22 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 more wintry weather in March than December ? Its colder in December, the sun angle is lower, the ground is colder, there's more snowpack to our north. Why on earth would we get more snow in March than December ? Btw, I don't recall a snowfall imby in the month of March of any significance in nearly 22 years. Depends where you're at. Obviously the further north you are the best chance at snow in March. Heck even seen snow here in NC in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 more wintry weather in March than December ? Its colder in December, the sun angle is lower, the ground is colder, there's more snowpack to our north. Why on earth would we get more snow in March than December ? Btw, I don't recall a snowfall imby in the month of March of any significance in nearly 22 years. I'm saying we generally get more Jan - March. We used to never get anything in December the last 12 years yes we have. 02 03 10 for sure. Last year we got a wintry mix in November very little in December then more Jan and February with a little black ice in March. I base mine off of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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