packbacker Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 So is it right that we have three models showing the low in the Gulf versus the Euro showing it in Tenn? That sure would be a big difference. They all have lows down in the gulf region day 9'ish, just the Euro cuts it up the App's and the CMC/GFS's slide more NE off the NC coast. Although the Euro may slide the storm more NE and hit the MA/NE after day 10 but again, this is 10 days away. Would be nice to see someone on the EC get a winter storm around then. Not surprisingly the GFS is more progressive...which is why I lean towards a Euro like solution, an interior EC winter event possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Taking Pack's images: Notice here on the Euro map, the parallel black lines demonstrate no confluence in the critical area. What you get then is a high pressure ridge out of position to make the play. Because it's out of position, it's late getting the shot off and low pressure is able to sneak in and make the block. Bang, we're not cold enough and the main storm heads left. Now, see here the GFS. Black arrows coming together nicely in a good spot for upper level confluence. Nice banana high in a decent spot to help both keep the storm low and to the right low and to the right low and to the right...just enough...and funnel some decent cold air in so that parts of the area get some winter weather. This is a workable map. Now, the question becomes: Which is correct? I think we all know the answer to that, don't we? Man I have missed doing map commentary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Taking Pack's images: Notice here on the Euro map, the parallel black lines demonstrate no confluence in the critical area. What you get then is a high pressure ridge out of position to make the play. Because it's out of position, it's late getting the shot off and low pressure is able to sneak in and make the block. Bang, we're not cold enough and the main storm heads left. ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png Now, see here the GFS. Black arrows coming together nicely in a good spot for upper level confluence. Nice banana high in a decent spot to help both keep the storm low and to the right low and to the right low and to the right...just enough...and funnel some decent cold air in so that parts of the area get some winter weather. This is a workable map. gfs_z500_mslp_us_37.png Now, the question becomes: Which is correct? I think we all know the answer to that, don't we? Man I have missed doing map commentary! neither one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Too early to make too many comments on a day 10 snowstorm, but it's pretty much ideal for snow in the western side of the state and ice everywhere else save the coastal areas. Split flow pattern w/ el nino and a highly positive PNA is always good for ice and snow. Timing the hp and atlantic pattern will decide the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Great article by Kirk Mellish - he really puts this cold wave in perspective http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-mellishs-weather-commentary/2014/nov/11/cold-january-november/#__federated=1 A cold snap worthy of January on the way even for Atlanta, and while rare, it's hardly unprecedented. Roughly 17 such November arctic invasions are in the record books even for places out West and up North where this one will be a long duration event with some new records. We could have a couple "close calls" with snow or ice from the far north suburbs to the mountains between now and Turkey Day, but mainly mountains. I will cover specifics of precip and temps as always on the radio and on the 5 day forecast page of http://www.wsbradio.com/s/weather/ There look to be a couple of storm systems with CAD events-- cold air daming, known around here as "the wedge". Possible 'Miller B' type low pressure systems. CAD wedge events are notoriously difficult to forecast and can result in forecasts of temp and/or precip that are way off the mark. One cold wave may be followed by another before temperatures warm again before Thanksgiving. However, it should be noted that model spread/inconsistency is becoming high, so trust in output/forecasts must be lower than usual for a while. The true "Polar Vortex" stays way up North, but a piece of it breaks off and makes it to between Hudson Bay Canada and the Northern Great Lakes, which is not unusual, just unusually early. Click on the maps and charts on left for more, remember they are a snap shot in time, and change every 6-12 hours, hence the need for updates on the radio and homepage. The coming cold is two weeks earlier than the historic normal even for places up north, it will push snow cover above normal-- even for parts of the south between now and the 25th. On a national basis looks like the coldest November in at least 14 years and maybe 40 years. For Atlanta it means Friday would be colder than normal even if it was January! But it will warm up again this month, just probably not low 70s again. At its peak by next week over 200 million people will be feeling freezing temperatures or lower, keep in mind this is not something new or crazy, just a NEW way of reporting thanks to modern "big data" methods. For some reason many in the media and social media (twitter, facebook etc) love to become hysterical and exagerate cold waves and snow chances. I don't know why they act like little school kids. To put it in perspective, the record lows for this coming weekend for Atlanta are 19-22, set back in 1969. And no, it has nothing to do with "global anything", weather is not climate. Only the biggest idiot would confuse the two. The record books for snow and ice in Georgia are very poor, but back to 1929... I found a little over half an inch of snow in Atlanta in November of 1975 and on November 24th in 1971 freezing rain caused moderate damage to trees and wires in NE Atlanta NE mountains. Follow me on twitter @MellishMeterWSB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Really having trouble understanding why everyone is so pessimistic. 2m temps anoms are below average for locations North of I 85 in the past several runs of the GEFS till the end of the run. I think it's just relative. Arkansas and Louisiana are showing teens whereas Lee side is showing thirties. It seems apps really block a lot of fun for our area, and areas just to our west get the good stuff. If it weren't for that, people would probably happier with what's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 12Z GFS is cold chasing moisture for the system on the 17th-18th time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I think it's just relative. Arkansas and Louisiana are showing teens whereas Lee side is showing thirties. It seems apps really block a lot of fun for our area, and areas just to our west get the good stuff. If it weren't for that, people would probably happier with what's coming. Be happy that we have those Appalachians, they slow the cold from coming east but they also protect the cold (CADs) from being pushed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I think it's just relative. Arkansas and Louisiana are showing teens whereas Lee side is showing thirties. It seems apps really block a lot of fun for our area, and areas just to our west get the good stuff. If it weren't for that, people would probably happier with what's coming. Or live in the Apps, and have the best of both worlds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Nothing really interesting in the extended on the 12 GFS today. I guess you can call it very normal for November. Cool downs, warm-ups, rain, cool downs, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Nothing really interesting in the extended on the 12 GFS today. I guess you can call it very normal for November. Cool downs, warm-ups, rain, cool downs, etc. Yep, boring for sure....I know climo right now is for cutters but was hoping for a storm to be suppressed, even if it was a cold rain. Just to set the tone for the rest of the winter. Hopefully by mid/late-December we can start tracking a realistic pattern for a winter event. Typically our peak times are end of Jan into mid-Feb so it might be a couple of months still. Although, on the optimistic side of things, I would rather storms cut now and not in Jan/Feb. Guess it would be frustrating to see a nice SLP track and it be rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Yep, boring for sure....I know climo right now is for cutters but was hoping for a storm to be suppressed, even if it was a cold rain. Just to set the tone for the rest of the winter. Hopefully by mid/late-December we can start tracking a realistic pattern for a winter event. Typically our peak times are end of Jan into mid-Feb so it might be a couple of months still. Although, on the optimistic side of things, I would rather storms cut now and not in Jan/Feb. Guess it would be frustrating to see a nice SLP track and it be rain... This looked interesting on the 12Z EURO...can't see the details but there's a low in the right place with cold air around....at least it didn't cut this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 This looked interesting on the 12Z EURO...can't see the details but there's a low in the right place with cold air around....at least it didn't cut this run. The primary is up in Maine, more of a cold front pushing through. All the snow is well NW in the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Oh, gotcha thanks. Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Most models have backed off the extreme cold past day 7. GFS seems to think it will come back around Thanksgiving. Looks like it's back to normal until probably December...we shall see at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Be happy that we have those Appalachians, they slow the cold from coming east but they also protect the cold (CADs) from being pushed out. we don't have the apps to our west in Georgia. No mountains of any significance in Alabama so CAD is usually pushed out very fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Most models have backed off the extreme cold past day 7. GFS seems to think it will come back around Thanksgiving. Looks like it's back to normal until probably December...we shall see at least. Yep, it almost always happens. Never seems to go the other way with the same intensity. The D10 snow and ice continues to accumulate! How many times have we seen the models overestimate the pressing cold in the LR only to dampen it out as we get closer? The blocking is pretty good and I like the active STJ. But I'm not sold on it being as cold as modeled in the LR yet. Let's get it inside of 5-6 days and see if it still has that look. Gonna be difficult to pull this off in November, even with an amped up pattern like this....not impossible though. Like Brick said...and said...and said...and said...and....it's pretty cool we have something to track so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 we don't have the apps to our west in Georgia. No mountains of any significance in Alabama so CAD is usually pushed out very fast. I would have to disagree about the CAD pushing out fast. For winter weather it does seem to rise above freezing but CAD can hold on for days. I don't have the time to pull stats but I would argue that if CAD is eroding in GA it is also getting chipped away at in the Carolinas. Rarely can a storm come in and blast it away like the models always show. It also spares us from a lot of severe weather that Alabama gets slammed with other than a few exceptions where storms fire on the periphery of the wedge like the Atlanta tornado of 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Well the Euro is definitely ending the cold by next Saturday/Sunday, we go back to well above average temp. I guess I mis-spoke thinking today was the last 70F day, Edit: Although by the end of the run it looks like it may try and reload, which I think would be great news. The AO never looks to go really positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 Enjoy. Data goes back to 1895 http://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/map/cag/#app=cdo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Love how the cold, dense air is being held up by the Apps, making for a great day in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Love how the cold, dense air is being held up by the Apps, making for a great day in WNC. simuawips.gif Fantastic visible image - temps peaked in the mid-70's here today - gorgeous weather - felt like September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Love how the cold, dense air is being held up by the Apps, making for a great day in WNC. simuawips.gif Yeah I have noticed we have had low clouds coming in with the cold air. Temps are really dropping off here. Down to 41 degrees with a biting wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Snowing in Memphis and Nashville this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I know there's not as much talk going on compared to a few days ago...but I'm still very impressed by what the GFS is showing for temps through most of next week at least in my neck of the woods. Infact Tuesday looks the coldest as it could struggle to get above freezing east of the mountains in North Carolina... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I know there's not as much talk going on compared to a few days ago...but I'm still very impressed by what the GFS is showing for temps through most of next week at least in my neck of the woods. Infact Tuesday looks the coldest as it could struggle to get above freezing east of the mountains in North Carolina... It seems like people are less than impressed or disappointed now because it doesn't look like we will see any snow. Still, these temps in November is very unusual and impressive. Just setting the stage for when winter actually gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It seems like people are less than impressed or disappointed now because it doesn't look like we will see any snow. Still, these temps in November is very unusual and impressive. Just setting the stage for when winter actually gets here. 100% agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Who's disappointed because it's not snowing in November? That's like calling hurricane season a dud in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I know there's not as much talk going on compared to a few days ago...but I'm still very impressed by what the GFS is showing for temps through most of next week at least in my neck of the woods. Infact Tuesday looks the coldest as it could struggle to get above freezing east of the mountains in North Carolina... Extracted data on the 6z GFS has a 21z temp of 36 at KCLT. One degree off an all time low max high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It seems like people are less than impressed or disappointed now because it doesn't look like we will see any snow. Still, these temps in November is very unusual and impressive. Just setting the stage for when winter actually gets here. If anyone expected snow in November, they dont ****ing deserve to post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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