The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread

[BullCityWx]

I just noticed that AccuWx has extracted data on the euro through day 10 now. 

[jshetley]

GFS and parallel GFS keep trending away from any meaningful rainfall through the weekend...it's getting dry across most of the South.  Euro is still much wetter.    

This is just oppisite of El Nino. All the rain is 10 or more days away on the GFS and I look for this to keep on happening. This fall and winter is sure shaping up like 2001-2002 in this part of the country.

[BullCityWx]

Also, speaking of the euro, it has a kickoff temp at KCLT of 36º on Sunday. 

[NRVwxfan.]

This is just oppisite of El Nino. All the rain is 10 or more days away on the GFS and I look for this to keep on happening. This fall and winter is sure shaping up like 2001-2002 in this part of the country.

[jshetley]

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?southeast

 

This is spreading on every update. Just the opposite of what is supposed to happen with El Nino.

[packbacker]

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?southeast

 

This is spreading on every update. Just the opposite of what is supposed to happen with El Nino.

I posted a response on this early this morning....

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44372-the-official-2014-fall-discussion-thread/page-49#entry3118316

[NRVwxfan.]

There has been a lot of talk about how dry the east has been and that must mean Nino is failing....not so sure....per CPC maps, the fall is usually dry on east coast, wet in Apps/Tn Valley.  Then doesn't get wet in the east until DJF.  So far the fall is shaping up as the SON shows.

Pack knows what he is talking about.......

[jshetley]

It's safe to throw out 2002-2003 as an analog year. That fall was wet from mid Sept right on up to Jan. 

[NRVwxfan.]

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I think you were referencing 01-02, which was a warm winter.

if I recall correctly we had much more snow/Ice in the 01-02 winter than the 02-03 winter. The only thing I remember about the 02-03 winter was a cold spell in January. 01-02 was awesome though with that big snow in January.

[SoCoWx]

if I recall correctly we had much more snow/Ice in the 01-02 winter than the 02-03 winter. The only thing I remember about the 02-03 winter was a cold spell in January. 01-02 was awesome though with that big snow in January.

Am I missing something here? Pretty sure that winter torched. I feel like I'm on crazy pills reading some of these posts.

[Heisy]

Am I missing something here? Pretty sure that winter torched. I feel like I'm on crazy pills reading some of these posts.

 

2001-02 was an epic torch fest for most of the Eastern U.S., he has to have his dates mixed up or something.

[LithiaWx]

And in the meantime, there is that strange little swirl off the coast of Florida ....

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

http://flhurricane.com/flradar.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_SE/anim16vis.htm (This one may be time sensitive - if so, it'll be dark soon)

sat_9.gif

Phil says it's possibly developing into an extra tropical cyclone.

[Eric]

[superjames1992]

2001-2002 did have the epic January 2002 event posted above.  The rest of the winter largely sucked, but that's winter in the south.  One event can make or break it.

[superjames1992]

Wasn't the winter of 2000-2001 awful, too?  I remember the November 2000 snow event, which was great, but I remember nothing from the rest of the winter (not to say there was nothing, though).  Pretty typical of Mother Nature to tease us with an early storm only to give us scraps the rest of the winter!

 

The worst of the winter of 2000-2001 was the early December 2000 snowstorm that was hyped up to be a repeat of January 2000, but we didn't get a drop of rain or a flake of snow.   That storm did bury the northern coastal plain, so I suppose it was a fine winter out there, though.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Wasn't the winter of 2000-2001 awful, too?  I remember the November 2000 snow event, which was great, but I remember nothing from the rest of the winter (not to say there was nothing, though).  Pretty typical of Mother Nature to tease us with an early storm only to give us scraps the rest of the winter!

 

The worst of the winter of 2000-2001 was the early December 2000 snowstorm that was hyped up to be a repeat of January 2000, but we didn't get a drop of rain or a flake of snow.   That storm did bury the northern coastal plain, so I suppose it was a fine winter out there, though.

Winter of 2000-2001 was pretty good for the northern Atlanta burbs. There was a pretty big snow event in Mid December 2000.

[SN_Lover]

0z GFS shows hope. Downsloping might suck for the Piedmont though :/

 

[burgertime]

I thought hour 264 of the parallel looked better lol. Basically had a big CAD signature with a Miller B type setup. 

[FallsLake]

6z GFS is very interesting for next Monday. Don't have surface temps but this could potentially be a significant event for somebody:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_141_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=141&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141111+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=2

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_144_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=144&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141111+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_147_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=147&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141111+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_150_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=150&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141111+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=83

 

Maybe some cold air chasing precip, but the initial air mass will be very cold/dry so maybe it's a sleet/snow setup..

[FallsLake]

6z GFS precip types:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_144_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=dom_precip_type&fhr=144&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141111+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=82

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_150_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=dom_precip_type&fhr=150&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141111+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

NW piedmont of NC looks to get some accumulations:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=11&model_init_hh=06&fhour=150&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Isopycnic]

Very ugly for WNC verbatim.  1" of frozen precip is nothing to mess around with.  Lets hope that falls as either rain or snow and not ZR.

Cosgrove disagrees, 

 

Regards.

[mackerel_sky]

So the prolonged cold snap that's locked in after this weekend, looking like not so much now. Aeast we have some rain coming in 6 days!

[tarheelwx]

So I guess the 00z Euro was less than stellar? On a plane and hard to read free maps on phone.

Thanks

TW

[Hvward]

Cosgrove disagrees,

Regards.

Lol.

Yup 00Z euro sends the low up through the Ohio valley. Didn't read what Crosgrove said was just stating what the Euro was showing yestsrday at 12z. Anyone care to enlighten? Sunday night things could get interesting in WNC but the models have shown the cold moving out with WAA setting in as the system arrives then bringing the cold back after (other than the 6z GFS this morning which is an outlier right now). Couldn't get my column temps to load up this AM so not entirely sure if anything would even be frozen.

[Shack]

So I guess the 00z Euro was less than stellar? On a plane and hard to read free maps on phone.

Thanks

TW

To my untrained eye, the Euro keeps almost, a more Miller A-ish, look.  Takes a low from southeast New Mexico at 120hr and at 144hr it's centered over central Georgia.  1028 High moves from Virginia to off the coast of Nova Scotia .   Didn't look at surface temps but 850s straddle the Appalachians.

00z GFS had very similar look. Wet and cool for many of us.  But close to something.

[calculus1]

Lol.

Yup 00Z euro sends the low up through the Ohio valley. Didn't read what Crosgrove said was just stating what the Euro was showing yestsrday at 12z. Anyone care to enlighten? Sunday night things could get interesting in WNC but the models have shown the cold moving out with WAA setting in as the system arrives then bringing the cold back after (other than the 6z GFS this morning which is an outlier right now). Couldn't get my column temps to load up this AM so not entirely sure if anything would even be frozen.

 

I believe Iso is referring to a now-infamous incident where Cosgrove swore it would not ice, even up to and during an event, while parts of the SE got one of the worst ice storms ever.  He's making a joke about the past, not actually referring to what Cosgrove has said regarding this potential event.

[packbacker]

2001-2002 did have the epic January 2002 event posted above.  The rest of the winter largely sucked, but that's winter in the south.  One event can make or break it.

That was a perfect winter, epic early winter storm in early Jan. Then it was shorts weather rest of the way. This was my favorite winter.

[packbacker]

So I guess the 00z Euro was less than stellar? On a plane and hard to read free maps on phone.

Thanks

TW

ENS have a lot of spread, as expected. But, seems like were up for some cutters in Nov, IMO.

[Hvward]

I believe Iso is referring to a now-infamous incident where Cosgrove swore it would not ice, even up to and during an event, while parts of the SE got one of the worst ice storms ever. He's making a joke about the past, not actually referring to what Cosgrove has said regarding this potential event.

Oh haha I forgot all about that! Haha thats funny thanks Calc!