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The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread


jburns

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Really don't understand how models can be wrong all summer on amounts of precipitation. They consistantly show 1,2, or 3 inches of rain 1 or 2 days out , to only end up with .25-.5 inches or nothing at all? It really makes the forecasters look bad because that's all they have to go on and they don't look at the Synoptics like Robert ( wxsouth) would do. It has happened time and time again this summer! Very frustrating! Just want and need rain imby!

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I'm perfectly right in my back yard. Nothing but a sprinkle and radar is falling apart. And only a few lucky areas got this rain this evening. Nothing upstream shows any promise either. . A 30-50% pop would have covered things nicely. No need for 70%. 

 

Looks like you are getting rain right now to me.  But that will turn into just sprinkles I guess.

 

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Really don't understand how models can be wrong all summer on amounts of precipitation. They consistantly show 1,2, or 3 inches of rain 1 or 2 days out , to only end up with .25-.5 inches or nothing at all? It really makes the forecasters look bad because that's all they have to go on and they don't look at the Synoptics like Robert ( wxsouth) would do. It has happened time and time again this summer! Very frustrating! Just want and need rain imby!

I don't ever recall a summer where the forecasts for rain have been so off. I wonder if there is a reason.

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Now that we are just 10 days from the official start of fall, is there any sign of a DRY and pleasant air mass anytime soon ? I'm talking sunny skies, low humidity, lows in the 50s, and highs in the 70s or low 80s. Or will we just have to settle for damp and cooler ?

I'm with you! I'm ready for some FALL air, tired of this juicy late summer stuff. Was supposed to happen this Sunday but keeps getting pushed back. Maybe late next week?

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Crazy temps for NC the next couple of days. Tomorrow may stay on the 60s while Monday may jump back above 80. Then Tuesday the temps drop again for what I hope is finally that cool and dry pattern.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=09&model_dd=13&model_init_hh=12&fhour=30&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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I was thinking that, too. If it is this hard just forecasting the rain it will be even worse when it comes to wintry events.

 

I have no way to prove this, but my observation over the years is that models sometimes struggle more than usual during a change in seasons. Since we are transitioning from summer to fall, this may explain some of the trouble the models have had in recent days resolving this weekend's forecast for the SE.

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We did get .15 out of that but nothing like a few other areas got. Maybe the new area south of GSP can get in here somehow. We need that batch from Gastonia to Morganton to come down this way though.

 

That can't be the case as of this afternoon. Lyman received 3" of rain between yesterday and what has been falling in the last 20 minutes. The bulk of that came about 3:00 AM. Jonesville is barely east of Lyman. Is your gauge working?

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That can't be the case as of this afternoon. Lyman received 3" of rain between yesterday and what has been falling in the last 20 minutes. The bulk of that came about 3:00 AM. Jonesville is barely east of Lyman. Is your gauge working?

We are 40 miles apart and .15 is our amount. If no one has told you so these summer storms do not hit everyone. You can get 3 inches  in Lyman and easily not get 1 drop in Greer. And I'm a lot farther from you than that.

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I have no way to prove this, but my observation over the years is that models sometimes struggle more than usual during a change in seasons. Since we are transitioning from summer to fall, this may explain some of the trouble the models have had in recent days resolving this weekend's forecast for the SE.

But it has happened throughout the summer. Maybe this summer was just unusual and had a more complex pattern than the typical hot with a chance of an afternoon storm.

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We are 40 miles apart and .15 is our amount. If no one has told you so these summer storms do not hit everyone. You can get 3 inches in Lyman and easily not get 1 drop in Greer. And I'm a lot farther from you than that.

we are way past the hit and miss afternoon storm season. Fall is 9 days away !
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