Cold Rain Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Riiiiiggggghhhhhhtttt... There's dry, and then. There's Shetley dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 There's dry, and then. There's Shetley dry. He's golden on his forecasts if you go opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I'm perfectly right in my back yard. Nothing but a sprinkle and radar is falling apart. And only a few lucky areas got this rain this evening. Nothing upstream shows any promise either. . A 30-50% pop would have covered things nicely. No need for 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Probably got 1-2 inches of rain today. Glad to boot the dry portals back to Union county. Hope for more this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 He's golden on his forecasts if you go opposite There's dry, then there's Jonesville and Waycross dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Really don't understand how models can be wrong all summer on amounts of precipitation. They consistantly show 1,2, or 3 inches of rain 1 or 2 days out , to only end up with .25-.5 inches or nothing at all? It really makes the forecasters look bad because that's all they have to go on and they don't look at the Synoptics like Robert ( wxsouth) would do. It has happened time and time again this summer! Very frustrating! Just want and need rain imby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Now that we are just 10 days from the official start of fall, is there any sign of a DRY and pleasant air mass anytime soon ? I'm talking sunny skies, low humidity, lows in the 50s, and highs in the 70s or low 80s. Or will we just have to settle for damp and cooler ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 I'm perfectly right in my back yard. Nothing but a sprinkle and radar is falling apart. And only a few lucky areas got this rain this evening. Nothing upstream shows any promise either. . A 30-50% pop would have covered things nicely. No need for 70%. Looks like you are getting rain right now to me. But that will turn into just sprinkles I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Looks like you are getting rain right now to me. But that will turn into just sprinkles I guess. Yeah - still getting thunder here in Lyman...not far west of Jonesville. I call bollocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 We did get .15 out of that but nothing like a few other areas got. Maybe the new area south of GSP can get in here somehow. We need that batch from Gastonia to Morganton to come down this way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Really don't understand how models can be wrong all summer on amounts of precipitation. They consistantly show 1,2, or 3 inches of rain 1 or 2 days out , to only end up with .25-.5 inches or nothing at all? It really makes the forecasters look bad because that's all they have to go on and they don't look at the Synoptics like Robert ( wxsouth) would do. It has happened time and time again this summer! Very frustrating! Just want and need rain imby! I don't ever recall a summer where the forecasts for rain have been so off. I wonder if there is a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 We need that batch between Athens and Greenwood to work up this way! It looks like it's trying. Picked up another .12, so about .25 total today, so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Now that we are just 10 days from the official start of fall, is there any sign of a DRY and pleasant air mass anytime soon ? I'm talking sunny skies, low humidity, lows in the 50s, and highs in the 70s or low 80s. Or will we just have to settle for damp and cooler ? I'm with you! I'm ready for some FALL air, tired of this juicy late summer stuff. Was supposed to happen this Sunday but keeps getting pushed back. Maybe late next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 I don't ever recall a summer where the forecasts for rain have been so off. I wonder if there is a reason. The most likely reason is that this is the first year you've really paid attention to it. That's my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 The most likely reason is that this is the first year you've really paid attention to it. That's my guess. I am not the only one who has noticed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 I am not the only one who has noticed it. I was just guessing. I'm not really sure if there is any empirical evidence that the models have been that much worse than normal this year. It seems like they have been bad on occasion, but them again, it always seems like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 I don't ever recall a summer where the forecasts for rain have been so off. I wonder if there is a reason. Confirmation bias. Rain is coming down in buckets right now IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Confirmation bias. Rain is coming down in buckets right now IMBY. Still dry here. Will let everyone know if wetness arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 About 3.5 inches of rain overnight...that's all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Had a inch and a half here in Candler in the rain gauge. Asheville airport on the news last night only showed a quarter of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 I really can't stand having day after day of cloudy weather and no rain to show for it, and it looks like the WPC 5 day map shows most of the rain south and east of a line from Atlanta to Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Crazy temps for NC the next couple of days. Tomorrow may stay on the 60s while Monday may jump back above 80. Then Tuesday the temps drop again for what I hope is finally that cool and dry pattern. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=09&model_dd=13&model_init_hh=12&fhour=30¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 I was thinking that, too. If it is this hard just forecasting the rain it will be even worse when it comes to wintry events. I have no way to prove this, but my observation over the years is that models sometimes struggle more than usual during a change in seasons. Since we are transitioning from summer to fall, this may explain some of the trouble the models have had in recent days resolving this weekend's forecast for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 We did get .15 out of that but nothing like a few other areas got. Maybe the new area south of GSP can get in here somehow. We need that batch from Gastonia to Morganton to come down this way though. That can't be the case as of this afternoon. Lyman received 3" of rain between yesterday and what has been falling in the last 20 minutes. The bulk of that came about 3:00 AM. Jonesville is barely east of Lyman. Is your gauge working? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 That can't be the case as of this afternoon. Lyman received 3" of rain between yesterday and what has been falling in the last 20 minutes. The bulk of that came about 3:00 AM. Jonesville is barely east of Lyman. Is your gauge working? We are 40 miles apart and .15 is our amount. If no one has told you so these summer storms do not hit everyone. You can get 3 inches in Lyman and easily not get 1 drop in Greer. And I'm a lot farther from you than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 I have no way to prove this, but my observation over the years is that models sometimes struggle more than usual during a change in seasons. Since we are transitioning from summer to fall, this may explain some of the trouble the models have had in recent days resolving this weekend's forecast for the SE. But it has happened throughout the summer. Maybe this summer was just unusual and had a more complex pattern than the typical hot with a chance of an afternoon storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 We are 40 miles apart and .15 is our amount. If no one has told you so these summer storms do not hit everyone. You can get 3 inches in Lyman and easily not get 1 drop in Greer. And I'm a lot farther from you than that. Hahahahahahahaha....good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 We are 40 miles apart and .15 is our amount. If no one has told you so these summer storms do not hit everyone. You can get 3 inches in Lyman and easily not get 1 drop in Greer. And I'm a lot farther from you than that. we are way past the hit and miss afternoon storm season. Fall is 9 days away ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Nice weather inbound for the triad midweek on. Heck 68 today with dps in the 50'S feels great. No more 90 and after Tuesday most likely no more 80 till next spring right on que. We.usually get our first shot to break 40 for a low the first week of October and first frost October 20. Only 1 month away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 The weather this week looks awesome! Looks like fall has arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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