Hvward Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Very ugly for WNC verbatim. 1" of frozen precip is nothing to mess around with. Lets hope that falls as either rain or snow and not ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 After a more extensive look at the Euro...temps in Western North Carolina actually fall to its lowest point (upper 20's to about 31) at hour 240... This model run is a classic Miller-B setup for the Blue Ridge... EDIT: Temps are far enough below freezing for a significant ice buildup West of I-77...Charlotte is right on the border line but it gets just above freezing by hour 240 (34-35 degrees)...could be one of those events where icing is heavy around Huntersville and Cornelius while South Charlotte to Matthews are a slight glaze. GSP remains at freezing...Upstate areas like Anderson and Greenwood go just enough above freezing to prevent a major icing, similar to the southern areas of Charlotte. One thing about CAD events is that they are almost always too warm on models with the cold air especially in the Carolinas. I prefer to avoid ice storms so I'll be happy if this disappears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 One thing about CAD events is that they are almost always too warm on models with the cold air especially in the Carolinas. I prefer to avoid ice storms so I'll be happy if this disappears. Totally agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 WXSOUTH @WxSouth 18m18 minutes ago Chances of Winter storm through MidSouth-MidAtlantic increasing still on Euro model days 8 9 10. Pattern supports it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 FFC THE GOOD THING IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS NOWCOME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS LATE IN THE PERIOD AND IS NOLONGER ADVERTISING A SECONDARY SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM A CUTOFFMIDLEVEL LOW ON MONDAY...SO INSTEAD NOW BOTH MODELS ARE PUSHINGMOISTURE OUT BY THIS TIME. GFS IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER BUT ATLEAST THEY ARE TRENDING MORE SIMILAR. SO WITH THAT...PRECIPITATIONOVERSPREADS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHWESTZONES. THERE IS DEFINITELY SOME QUESTION WITH POPS AND LOWTEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND FOR NOW SATURDAYAND SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE JUST A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...BUTWE ARE STILL TALKING DAYS 6 AND 7 SO THIS COULD CHANGE. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT INTERESTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTH GEORGIA STAY TUNED TOTHE FORECAST BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF COPIOUS MOISTURE AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES DOES DEFINITELY LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 EUro240.png Woo! 28 degrees! On with the ice! Ice storms in March! Ice storms in November! The demise of CAD in recent winters has been greatly exaggerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The one thing that makes this a real possibility is the amount of cold/dry air that will proceed and then at least be very close during the event. We've seen this before where the long rang models will have some difficulty depicting a CAD and the supply of low level cold/dry air. Not saying this particular event will happen but some kind of event will be possible during the next couple of weeks. Just look at the dew points from the 12 GFS at hour 240: i think your underlining of "dry" is key - seems like many times there is some cold air but its not all that dry, so evaporational cooling doesnt really have an oomph other than to get the temp close to 32 then end up a cold rain as the temp hovers just above freezing. with a good supply of cold air and low dewpoints we would stand a better chance of frozen This isn't a GA storm, the setup isn't even close. As other said that's a storm that would crush a small area of NC. I do love some mid-30's rain though which is what that shows for mby. just saw the 2m temps and ugh lol mid 30s and rain (although that it is *sort* of close haha) for most of n ga. freezing line stops around gsp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I have a hard time buying a miller b scenario .... Given the blocking you would think the store track would be further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Falcons @ Panthers could be one of the coldest kickoffs in panthers history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I have a hard time buying a miller b scenario .... Given the blocking you would think the store track would be further south I don't remember a Miller B ever working out for CLT....hoping it disappears as I could do without 33 and rain. Maybe as we get closer, the track stays to the south. And I agree with the amount of blocking it seems more likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The D10 snow and ice continues to accumulate! How many times have we seen the models overestimate the pressing cold in the LR only to dampen it out as we get closer? The blocking is pretty good and I like the active STJ. But I'm not sold on it being as cold as modeled in the LR yet. Let's get it inside of 5-6 days and see if it still has that look. Gonna be difficult to pull this off in November, even with an amped up pattern like this....not impossible though. Like Brick said...and said...and said...and said...and....it's pretty cool we have something to track so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 With CAD events it's usually opposite. The models tend to underestimate the cold air and retreat it earlier than it actually does. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I don't remember a Miller B ever working out for CLT Most ice storms are Miller B's...but maybe you were referring to all or mostly snow events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The D10 snow and ice continues to accumulate! How many times have we seen the models overestimate the pressing cold in the LR only to dampen it out as we get closer? The blocking is pretty good and I like the active STJ. But I'm not sold on it being as cold as modeled in the LR yet. Let's get it inside of 5-6 days and see if it still has that look. Gonna be difficult to pull this off in November, even with an amped up pattern like this....not impossible though. Like Brick said...and said...and said...and said...and....it's pretty cool we have something to track so early. You sound like me! I agree with you though, outside of the mountains, and possibly the foothills, it's going to be really tough. Although, when you look at average temps, the average high/low for last week of November is the same as first week of March for Raleigh. So just based on departure from norms, it wouldn't be completely unbelievable the last week of Nov. Another 3 weeks we can stop using the climo excuse in December, we have had plenty of early Dec winter events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 With CAD events it's usually opposite. The models tend to underestimate the cold air and retreat it earlier than it actually does. We'll see. Yes, but that is with actual CAD events...not modeled CAD events 10 days out. I hear what you're saying and agree. What I am suggesting is that the high will be weaker or gone or in the wrong place by the time D10 becomes D1. You've got a 1028 high north of the Lakes, ridging down into NE over top of a low pressure moving up into western TN. I'd much rather see the High stronger and stationary over PA or the lower Lakes, building SE. Confluence is moving NE, as it seems to typically do. But hey, we're dissecting features on a model prog 10 days out. The fun is just beginning. What I'm interested in, as we head into winter, is: Do the models continue to overestimate the pressing of cold air in the D8+ time frame? Or will the pattern end up being so anomalous that they underestimate it and things get colder the closer we get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I don't remember a Miller B ever working out for CLT....hoping it disappears as I could do without 33 and rain. Maybe as we get closer, the track stays to the south. And I agree with the amount of blocking it seems more likely at this point. www4.ncsu.edu/ ~ nwsfo/ storage/cases/ 20021204/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Most ice storms are Miller B's...but maybe you were referring to all or mostly snow events Really? I can't think of a Miller B that's turned into anything significant....at least since I've know what a Miller B is. www4.ncsu.edu/ ~ nwsfo/ storage/cases/ 20021204/ That was a Miller B? That was before my internets tracking. But yeah, 12 years ago I think I'll give myself a pass. Most of the time they're just too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Really? I can't think of a Miller B that's turned into anything significant....at least since I've know what a Miller B is. That was a Miller B? That was before my internets tracking. But yeah, 12 years ago I think I'll give myself a pass. Most of the time they're just too warm. The case study said the system was a Miller B three times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Is there ever a case where NC gets a major icestorm without CAD ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The case study said the system was a Miller B three times. I took your word for it and responded prior to reading the link....it was surprising to me that the ice storm of 2002 was a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Most ice storms are Miller B's...but maybe you were referring to all or mostly snow events I can think of very few ice storms that are A's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 GFS and parallel GFS keep trending away from any meaningful rainfall through the weekend...it's getting dry across most of the South. Euro is still much wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 And in the meantime, there is that strange little swirl off the coast of Florida .... http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php http://flhurricane.com/flradar.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_SE/anim16vis.htm (This one may be time sensitive - if so, it'll be dark soon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I took your word for it and responded prior to reading the link....it was surprising to me that the ice storm of 2002 was a Miller B. Yea, I think that was a warm winter also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Yea, I think that was a warm winter also? 02-03? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 02-03? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Yes No, it was a cold winter. Multiple storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I can think of very few ice storms that are A's Yeah, last year we talked about some that have occurred, but it would be a smaller percentage. The March 6-7 ice storm in the Triad last winter was Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 No, it was a cold winter. Multiple storms. Oh, okay, must have thought of a different year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Oh, okay, must have thought of a different year. I think you were referencing 01-02, which was a warm winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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