FallsLake Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Might have to go to Elizabeth City for a chase: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=12&fhour=96¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 That's cool, learn something new everyday. Now I'm going to do a google search and find out why Brazilians speak Portuguese. It's because the Europeans that first colonized the area now known as Brazil came from Portugal. Thanks to Brazil, Portugese is spoken natively by 170 million people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Might have to go to Elizabeth City for a chase: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=12&fhour=96¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false The northeast corner of the state has been the place to be for snow the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Might have to go to Elizabeth City for a chase: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=12&fhour=96¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false There must be something wrong with that snow accumulation algorithm. Look at 925s and surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 End of the Euro run is very close to something but looks like WAA will wreck it. Need it to dig a little more to allow that cold air to sag south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 @234 1028 H showing up in NY with a nice CAD signature for the Carolinas. Would be a whole lotta ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Nice clown map for NC on the Euro but it's 240 hours out....and it looks to me like it would be mainly ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Nice clown map for NC on the Euro but it's 240 hours out....and it looks to me like it would be mainly ice. The one thing that makes this a real possibility is the amount of cold/dry air that will proceed and then at least be very close during the event. We've seen this before where the long rang models will have some difficulty depicting a CAD and the supply of low level cold/dry air. Not saying this particular event will happen but some kind of event will be possible during the next couple of weeks. Just look at the dew points from the 12 GFS at hour 240: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=12&fhour=240¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The one thing that makes this a real possibility is the amount of cold/dry air that will proceed and then at least be very close during the event. We've seen this before where the long rang models will have some difficulty depicting a CAD and the supply of low level cold/dry air. Not saying this particular event will happen but some kind of event will be possible during the next couple of weeks. Just look at the dew points from the 12 GFS at hour 240: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=12&fhour=240¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Would it be a deal where it starts as ZR/IP and transitions to rain due to lack of continued dry air infusion? Or are we talking about a deal where the dry air is going to be reinforced during the event keeping it frozen? A 1028 HP sounds a bit unimpressive for the latter but I'm sure it's happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx Taken literally the 12z ECMWF brings mixed precipitation to areas of NC/SC/GA 11/19-11/20. You can see CAD sig. pic.twitter.com/HmWMdVJGN4 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx Trust at your own risk though. Model spread/run to run inconsistency has been increasing last few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Taken literally nasty mixed bag for upstate SC, NC Foothills/western Piedmont up into much of Va. But again, tricky pattern with active jet undercutting blocking. Too bad we arent in January or I think we would all be enjoying the next 10-12 days alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Would it be a deal where it starts as ZR/IP and transitions to rain due to lack of continued dry air infusion? Or are we talking about a deal where the dry air is going to be reinforced during the event keeping it frozen? A 1028 HP sounds a bit unimpressive for the latter but I'm sure it's happened before. Could be, or the high may not be modeled correctly and could be stronger. Also, the air may start so cold/dry that by the time the temp can rise to freezing the precip is done. Really all we have at this point is potential; and that is good enough to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The one thing that makes this a real possibility is the amount of cold/dry air that will proceed and then at least be very close during the event. We've seen this before where the long rang models will have some difficulty depicting a CAD and the supply of low level cold/dry air. Not saying this particular event will happen but some kind of event will be possible during the next couple of weeks. Just look at the dew points from the 12 GFS at hour 240: Grain of salt all that jazz I worry about time of year, lack of snow pack to the north and the moderating cold out just ahead of it. Def. possibility though for sure...would be a lot nicer if it was only 100 hours away lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Grain of salt all that jazz I worry about time of year, lack of snow pack to the north and the moderating cold out just ahead of it. Def. possibility though for sure...would be a lot nicer if it was only 100 hours away lol. sub 1000mb low over Nashville is going to pump a ton of WAA over GA/SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Would it be a deal where it starts as ZR/IP and transitions to rain due to lack of continued dry air infusion? Or are we talking about a deal where the dry air is going to be reinforced during the event keeping it frozen? A 1028 HP sounds a bit unimpressive for the latter but I'm sure it's happened before. The temps for North GA are marginal to begin with...that plus the fact we're talking a true Miller-B means GA warms up enough to transition to liquid... For WNC and Upstate SC its a complete different animal as the primary low will transition to a secondary development off the SC Coast...that will result in locking in the cold air much longer...temps on the Euro stay in the 28/29 degree range for the duration...in other words the 12z Euro is a nasty ice storm for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Taken literally nasty mixed bag for upstate SC, NC Foothills/western Piedmont up into much of Va. But again, tricky pattern with active jet undercutting blocking. Too bad we arent in January or I think we would all be enjoying the next 10-12 days alot. I've been amazed at the over "feel" of the models when looking at surface maps. They just look like they are screaming a pattern that we usually don't see until well into winter. We can only hope to get such looks in Jan. and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Can someone please post 2M temps at 240 on the 12Z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 sub 1000mb low over Nashville is going to pump a ton of WAA over GA/SC/NC. The temps for North GA are marginal to begin with...that plus the fact we're talking a true Miller-B means GA warms up enough to transition to liquid... For WNC and Upstate SC its a complete different animal as the primary low will transition to a secondary development off the SC Coast...that will result in locking in the cold air much longer...temps on the Euro stay in the 28/29 degree range for the duration...in other words the 12z Euro is a nasty ice storm for WNC. What he said, for GA it doesn't look strong enough to really trap cold air on top...in NC/SC though totally different story just looking at it verbatim. Has the looks of a classic ZR monster....but alas it's one run at 240 hours in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Taken literally nasty mixed bag for upstate SC, NC Foothills/western Piedmont up into much of Va. But again, tricky pattern with active jet undercutting blocking. Too bad we arent in January or I think we would all be enjoying the next 10-12 days alot. Grain of salt all that jazz I worry about time of year, lack of snow pack to the north and the moderating cold out just ahead of it. Def. possibility though for sure...would be a lot nicer if it was only 100 hours away lol. I don't ever remember having so much stuff to watch for in November before. At least since I have been on these weather forums, I don't ever recall even having potential for wintry weather around here until at least December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Can someone please post 2M temps at 240 on the 12Z Euro? ATL is in the 40's with just north and northeast in the 30's. Central NC is in the upper 20's. Fine line for ATL as just south of their it's in the 50's and 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Grain of salt all that jazz I worry about time of year, lack of snow pack to the north and the moderating cold out just ahead of it. Def. possibility though for sure...would be a lot nicer if it was only 100 hours away lol. I definitely agree with you on time of year, being 240 hours out, and initial surface temps (and heck we're still the SE); but there will be some snow coverage to the north. This could helps any high that does try to setup to the NE. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=12&fhour=240¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I don't ever remember having so much stuff to watch for in November before. At least since I have been on these weather forums, I don't ever recall even having potential for wintry weather around here until at least December Uh...yea. You said that already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 ATL is in the 40's with just north and northeast in the 30's. Central NC is in the upper 20's. Fine line for ATL as just south of their it's in the 50's and 60's. That would be impressive. On the cheap maps I have it almost appears that the highest elevations of NC/TN will end up with rain while the lower elevations and valleys end up with ice if those 2M temps you say verify. Aloft at 850 mb (5000ish feet) is above 0c save for about Boone, NC northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Can someone please post 2M temps at 240 on the 12Z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Euro is pure nino with wave hitting California and remaining strong into the southern Plains. GFS is usually terrible with southern stream waves...hope GFS2 is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 After a more extensive look at the Euro...temps in Western North Carolina actually fall to its lowest point (upper 20's to about 31) at hour 240... This model run is a classic Miller-B setup for the Blue Ridge... EDIT: Temps are far enough below freezing for a significant ice buildup West of I-77...Charlotte is right on the border line but it gets just above freezing by hour 240 (34-35 degrees)...could be one of those events where icing is heavy around Huntersville and Cornelius while South Charlotte to Matthews are a slight glaze. GSP remains at freezing...Upstate areas like Anderson and Greenwood go just enough above freezing to prevent a major icing, similar to the southern areas of Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 EUro240.png Wow. Verbatim that would be ugly. I wouldn't wish that on anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Wow. Verbatim that would be ugly. I wouldn't wish that on anyone. not even close to freezing in atl though. Even 50s in some of the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 not even close to freezing in atl though. Even 50s in some of the suburbs. This isn't a GA storm, the setup isn't even close. As other said that's a storm that would crush a small area of NC. I do love some mid-30's rain though which is what that shows for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 not even close to freezing in atl though. Even 50s in some of the suburbs. At 240 hours you can't believe anything verbatim, much less the models when they're flippin' and floppin' like a fish out of water. Did you not read what Allan said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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