packbacker Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The Euro is showing a bit more rain for the SE than the GFS. Here's the HPC forecasted precip through day 7. There has been a lot of talk about how dry the east has been and that must mean Nino is failing....not so sure....per CPC maps, the fall is usually dry on east coast, wet in Apps/Tn Valley. Then doesn't get wet in the east until DJF. So far the fall is shaping up as the SON shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Can anyone make some sense out of this tweet and graphic from JB? Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 2m2 minutes ago Impressive for Atlanta where avel winter high about 11C Lots of snow and cold. looks more like what PHL would be like pic.twitter.com/CUDubX43Ra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Can't see the pic, but imagine he means the avg high for ATL in winter is 11 Celsius , don't no what he means about the snow. Guess it's about to look like Philly in ATL soon or this winter!? Sounds awesome for the South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Cold and snowy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Can anyone make some sense out of this tweet and graphic from JB? Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 2m2 minutes ago Impressive for Atlanta where avel winter high about 11C Lots of snow and cold. looks more like what PHL would be like pic.twitter.com/CUDubX43Ra Just looking at the graph it would be natural to draw a correlation between how cold it gets during the season to snow falling. So there is a really high chance for snow to fall when it gets below 11c? lol I have no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I'm trying to understand the green bars which is supposed to be snow in mm/hour? This looks like a fancy Farmer's Almanac prediction! The graph is supposed to tell us which days it's supposed to snow in Atlanta, and how much they will get. I'm sure that these predictions have a very low verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The graph is more or less a Meteorogram off the long range climate model . It clearly shows some up and down swings in the temps between now and Christmas but then it tanks and stays down after New Years . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I'm trying to understand the green bars which is supposed to be snow in mm/hour? This looks like a fancy Farmer's Almanac prediction! The graph is supposed to tell us which days it's supposed to snow in Atlanta, and how much they will get. I'm sure that these predictions have a very low verification. My guess is that the model predicts it will be very active shortly after the temps bottom out around New Years...maybe a couple small events with a moderate event in the middle. I also noticed the model showing a bigger event in February...maybe that event signals the start of another pattern change as we hit the back end of winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 My guess is that the model predicts it will be very active shortly after the temps bottom out around New Years...maybe a couple small events with a moderate event in the middle. I also noticed the model showing a bigger event in February...maybe that event signals the start of another pattern change as we hit the back end of winter? Basically. This is the Brazilian model Joe loves to show since it covers a few months. If you look back through his Twitter feed you'll see similar graphics to the one packfan posted. It shows Atlanta staying in the 30s or below from January 10th-ish to February 20th-ish, which is certainly a cold signal! It also has some snow around the first day of spring! Here's the site if you want to take a gander at it: http://clima1.cptec.inpe.br/gpc/pt Previsao Numerica is the tab you click on to look at some of the models available. It would also help to click on the American flag to see it in English. haha! I'm not sure how it verifies, though. The Meteograms are available on the right hand side of the page, but they only seem to be for Brazil itself, which makes sense. Another reason why Weatherbell is the way to go for maps (although TropicalTidBits is gaining, IMO). I wish I had a subscription... EDIT: Here's a link to the Brazilian Meteogram he posted back in October: https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/524236759501373440/photo/1 This will help clarify the 11C part. It's interesting to note here that the model did pick up on a dip in temperatures around the 11th-ish of this month and another one to kick of December, which is what the one Packfan posted showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The details off that long range Brazilian model would be foolish to buy into. It is a very nice cold indicator though for Jan -March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The details off that long range Brazilian model would be foolish to buy into. It is a very nice cold indicator though for Jan -March. I tried to look at it, but the maps looked warm to me. I don't think I'm doing it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Thanks for the explanation, Candyman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I tried to look at it, but the maps looked warm to me. I don't think I'm doing it right. I can't read Spanish so I can't navigate the site. I was just referring to the meteogram looking at exact dates and precip. Overall that meteogram was a cold signal that looked pretty. That makes the Euro season LR model not sting quite as bad to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I can't read Spanish so I can't navigate the site. I was just referring to the meteogram looking at exact dates and precip. Overall that meteogram was a cold signal that looked pretty. That makes the Euro season LR model not sting quite as bad to me. Oh, I thought you were looking at one of the maps. Yeah, the meteogram looks good. Hopefully, next month, the Euro seasonal will look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Oh, I thought you were looking at one of the maps. Yeah, the meteogram looks good. Hopefully, next month, the Euro seasonal will look better. But I'm with you, why do the maps look so warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The Euro is showing a bit more rain for the SE than the GFS. Here's the HPC forecasted precip through day 7. Not that much of a difference for mby Dr No says .25 and the GFS gives me .20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 But I'm with you, why do the maps look so warm? The ridge is in the central part of the US, the Alaska low is not over the Aleutians, it's in/south GOA. Back everything to the west it would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 AH HA!!!! Found it!!! Now we don't have to rely on Joe to get the Brazilian Meteograms. Click on Global Acoplado T062L28. Then, where it says cidades, go to the bottom and click on US-Atlanta (or whichever one you want). My work here is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 +1,000,000 I'm just missing youth .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 AH HA!!!! Found it!!! Now we don't have to rely on Joe to get the Brazilian Meteograms. Click on Global Acoplado T062L28. Then, where it says cidades, go to the bottom and click on US-Atlanta (or whichever one you want). My work here is done. That's pretty cool. It looks like Atlanta will be getting more snow than Washington, DC. Wouldn't that be funny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The ridge is in the central part of the US, the Alaska low is not over the Aleutians, it's in/south GOA. Back everything to the west it would be great. Reverse that. This is showing anomolies, which means those are ridges in the Aleutians and off the East Coast and near normal heights over the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Reverse that. This is showing anomolies, which means those are ridges in the Aleutians and off the East Coast and near normal heights over the US. Ah, gotcha, was looking at it some more and scratching my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Here we go again... THE NCEP CENTERS (AND NESDIS) AT NCWCP ARE EXPERIENCING A NETWORKTYPE OUTAGE.. TECHS ARE WORKING ON THE ISSUE AND CURRENTLY WE ARENOT SURE OF A RESTORATION TIME. WE HAVE INTRANET ACCESS.. WE HAVEYET TO VERIFY IF THE NCEP WEB PAGES ARE ACCESSIBLE OR NOT BY THEOUTSIDE USERS/CUSTOMERS.. MORE TO COME..NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Ah, gotcha, was looking at it some more and scratching my head. Yeah, I'm not sure why they use that color scheme. It tricked me the first time I glanced at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 12z GFS looks very close to popping a big Miller A post 200. Really looks like winter time around 240. GFS Parallel should give better clues as the resolution is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Post hour 240 the GFS proper has highs in the 30's for much of the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I can't read Spanish so I can't navigate the site. I was just referring to the meteogram looking at exact dates and precip. Overall that meteogram was a cold signal that looked pretty. That makes the Euro season LR model not sting quite as bad to me. If it's from Brazil then it's in Portuguese. Not that it should make you trust it more, just, you know...the more you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 If it's from Brazil then it's in Portuguese. Not that it should make you trust it more, just, you know...the more you know That's cool, learn something new everyday. Now I'm going to do a google search and find out why Brazilians speak Portuguese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 GFS Parallel was close around 228 but it goes up the apps and brings a bunch of warm air with it. It also doesn't look as cold as the OG GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I can't read Spanish so I can't navigate the site. I was just referring to the meteogram looking at exact dates and precip. Overall that meteogram was a cold signal that looked pretty. That makes the Euro season LR model not sting quite as bad to me. Not Spanish. Portuguese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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