The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread

[pcbjr]

I miss the November winter storms of my youth.

 

 

I'm just missing youth ....

 

[mackerel_sky]

In November??

Whenever the pattern presents itself

[drfranklin]

It looks like it has some potential, but don't think the air will be cold or strong enough to beat, be here when moisture arrives. Gone are the days of a nice wintry storm hitting N TX and just rolling east to the SE. Either they get it and we don't , or vice versa. But this blocking and atmospheric set up are highly anonamalous and anything could happen.

Mack, take a deep breath, it's early November - enjoy the weather! It's absolutely beautiful in the Upstate now (and will be for the next three days) - Fall weather has been amazing this year. I'm in the minority on the board re cold/snowy weather: yes, I enjoy one or two major winter weather events (per year) - but I didn't move to SC for the wintry scene! I'm not looking forward to the (potentially) outrageous heating bills, shivering cold, and missed days from work due to ice/snow this winter.

[burgertime]

Whenever the pattern presents itself

 

Yea but that happened all the time last winter and in 09/10. 

[griteater]

Euro Ens is below normal with temps from day 4-15

[Wow]

18z GFS(para) on 11/18 barely getting above freezing for W NC, widespread highs in the 30s across the South...

 

1 pm 2m temps:

 

[Wow]

Euro Ens is below normal with temps from day 4-15

 

500mb anomalies for days 6-10.  If I could only lock this in for the winter.  Maybe it will ??

 

[LithiaWx]

18z GFS(para) on 11/18 barely getting above freezing for W NC, widespread highs in the 30s across the South...

 

1 pm 2m temps:

 

Below zero and single digit highs in mid November is ridiculous. I have obvious doubts the cold will verify that cold but model run after model run continues to say you better believe it.

[Hvward]

36/50 Euro Ensemble members have some amount of accumulating snowfall for KAVL but they are scattered over 3 different time frames. 4 of them would be big snows for Asheville of 8"+. So what does this mean? It is something to watch and there's a chance for at least wnc, but no consistancy so no solution is set in stone at all. We could have a few shots at flakes though.

[mackerel_sky]

Weekend met on ch 4, Chris Justus, just gave a good analysis of the weather for next week. Showing models and saying he doesn't believe that there will be any wintry weather outside the mountains, but things could change. One of the best local mets in my area, hands down.

[deltadog03]

The only thing that bothers me is that I don't know how much of a very strong push this clears the SE  *The cold that is*  The models have backed off the really good cold going through the SE.  I still think it gets cold, but doesn't look as cold, as previously advertised, for the I-20 corridor and south.  YES it will get cold.  Heck, mid and low 50s is still around 15 degrees below normal for the day.  Models were advertising some 40's for highs.  just don't know if that happens south of I40 to around I20.

[packbacker]

The only thing that bothers me is that I don't know how much of a very strong push this clears the SE *The cold that is* The models have backed off the really good cold going through the SE. I still think it gets cold, but doesn't look as cold, as previously advertised, for the I-20 corridor and south. YES it will get cold. Heck, mid and low 50s is still around 15 degrees below normal for the day. Models were advertising some 40's for highs. just don't know if that happens south of I40 to around I20.

Yeah, for Raleigh the avg high is mid 60's for mid-Nov, drops to

51-52F for mid Dec. Once we get to early Dec it's not as big a stretch to get snow/ice.

[metwannabe]

The only thing that bothers me is that I don't know how much of a very strong push this clears the SE *The cold that is* The models have backed off the really good cold going through the SE. I still think it gets cold, but doesn't look as cold, as previously advertised, for the I-20 corridor and south. YES it will get cold. Heck, mid and low 50s is still around 15 degrees below normal for the day. Models were advertising some 40's for highs. just don't know if that happens south of I40 to around I20.

I agree in regards to the first cold shot but the following at the first of next week looks to have a stronger push

[Met1985]

I agree in regards to the first cold shot but the following at the first of next week looks to have a stronger push

Good to see you posting over here. Yeah the second push looks colder but that is still about 10 days off. A lot of back and forth with the models. But if we do get that push of cold air I think it will be pretty stout because of some snow pack being put down this week in the Northern tier of the US.

[BullCityWx]

Yeah, for Raleigh the avg high is mid 60's for mid-Nov, drops to

51-52F for mid Dec. Once we get to early Dec it's not as big a stretch to get snow/ice.

Agreed. Worst ice storm in Charlotte history happened on December 4th in 02.

[Cold Rain]

To get a huge push of cold air into the SE this time of year, you need a strong high dropping toward the Lakes, not into Montana. By the time the air bleeds south and east, it has a great chance to modify some this time of year, especially if it's crossing a lot of land without snow pack.

The setup is very anomalous for this time of year but not ideal for getting brutally cold in the SE, though it will be quite cold by November standards.

I love the fact that we're already tracking this stuff. I feel like unless we get a big Arctic high in the absolute perfect location OR we get another huge ULL, any meaningful wintry weather is going to be confined to the higher elevations and points north and west of the SE.

This kind of pattern in the heart of winter will have a much better chance of producing, but that's stating the obvious.

[mackerel_sky]

To get a huge push of cold air into the SE this time of year, you need a strong high dropping toward the Lakes, not into Montana. By the time the air bleeds south and east, it has a great chance to modify some this time of year, especially if it's crossing a lot of land without snow pack.

The setup is very anomalous for this time of year but not ideal for getting brutally cold in the SE, though it will be quite cold by November standards.

I love the fact that we're already tracking this stuff. I feel like unless we get a big Arctic high in the absolute perfect location OR we get another huge ULL, any meaningful wintry weather is going to be confined to the higher elevations and points north and west of the SE.

This kind of pattern in the heart of winter will have a much better chance of producing, but that's stating the obvious.

Well said! That's what I've been trying to say, it doesn't matter if its a 1060 high, dropping into MT is not ideal for us , it dives to TX and never really gets here and usually gives TX / AR ice and snow.

Seems like the super cold air masses -5s/-10s for highs, usually take this path.

[deltadog03]

i agree, I still think if your in that I-40 corridor, you will some really nice pushes for air.  However, IME, unless we get a better look at H5 there won't be a super push for super cold south of I-40 and I-20.  

[WidreMann]

To get a huge push of cold air into the SE this time of year, you need a strong high dropping toward the Lakes, not into Montana. By the time the air bleeds south and east, it has a great chance to modify some this time of year, especially if it's crossing a lot of land without snow pack.

The setup is very anomalous for this time of year but not ideal for getting brutally cold in the SE, though it will be quite cold by November standards.

I love the fact that we're already tracking this stuff. I feel like unless we get a big Arctic high in the absolute perfect location OR we get another huge ULL, any meaningful wintry weather is going to be confined to the higher elevations and points north and west of the SE.

This kind of pattern in the heart of winter will have a much better chance of producing, but that's stating the obvious.

Moderation will only be due to snowpack. The sun angle right now is equivalent to late January.

[drfranklin]

Weekend met on ch 4, Chris Justus...One of the best local mets in my area, hands down...

Agreed - better analysis than Cessarich

[Snowless in Carrollton]

The only thing that bothers me is that I don't know how much of a very strong push this clears the SE  *The cold that is*  The models have backed off the really good cold going through the SE.  I still think it gets cold, but doesn't look as cold, as previously advertised, for the I-20 corridor and south.  YES it will get cold.  Heck, mid and low 50s is still around 15 degrees below normal for the day.  Models were advertising some 40's for highs.  just don't know if that happens south of I40 to around I20.

So you are saying FFC's forecast of 47 on Friday along the I-20 corridor is probably too low ?

[Bob Chill]

To get a huge push of cold air into the SE this time of year, you need a strong high dropping toward the Lakes, not into Montana. By the time the air bleeds south and east, it has a great chance to modify some this time of year, especially if it's crossing a lot of land without snow pack.

The setup is very anomalous for this time of year but not ideal for getting brutally cold in the SE, though it will be quite cold by November standards.

Good post. As we transition into the -ao pattern it initially starts off with a fairly broad conus trough with the big push coming down the east side of the Rockies and bleeds east. Not favorable for the coldest anoms to be centered east of the ms river. Pretty typical for cold shots in Nov so expected.

Ensemble guidance has been steadfast at showing as we move forward the axis shifts east and ridging starts to poke up through the intermountain West and the ridge/trough width narrows. Looks like 8-10 days down the line give or take.

Naturally the coldest anoms shift east as well. While the airmasses dropping out of canada may not be as anomalous, the coldest anoms in the conus will be much closer to both of our regions.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

To get a huge push of cold air into the SE this time of year, you need a strong high dropping toward the Lakes, not into Montana. By the time the air bleeds south and east, it has a great chance to modify some this time of year, especially if it's crossing a lot of land without snow pack.

The setup is very anomalous for this time of year but not ideal for getting brutally cold in the SE, though it will be quite cold by November standards.

I love the fact that we're already tracking this stuff. I feel like unless we get a big Arctic high in the absolute perfect location OR we get another huge ULL, any meaningful wintry weather is going to be confined to the higher elevations and points north and west of the SE.

This kind of pattern in the heart of winter will have a much better chance of producing, but that's stating the obvious.

Sorry CR, I have to disagree somewhat here. Our coldest weather this time of year almost always comes from a 1050+mb high dropping down into Montana and then progressing toward the Ohio Valley.However, it is tough to get a high that strong in the heart of Winter much less in the Fall.

[griteater]

Good discussion.  All else equal, cold associated with -EPO ridging up through Alaska is maximized over the central & northern Plains...while cold associated with +PNA ridging in western Canada is maximized in the southeast.  

 

If we factor in the Atlantic side, the coldest pattern of all is probably a -EPO with cross polar flow, combined with a west -NAO.

 

First image below is -EPO, second one is +PNA.  Source - http://madusweather.com/teleconnections/

 

 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Good discussion.  All else equal, cold associated with -EPO ridging up through Alaska is maximized over the central & northern Plains...while cold associated with +PNA ridging in western Canada is maximized in the southeast.  

 

If we factor in the Atlantic side, the coldest pattern of all is probably a -EPO with cross polar flow, combined with a west -NAO.

 

First image below is -EPO, second one is +PNA.  Source - http://madusweather.com/teleconnections/

 

 

It looks like the immediate coastal areas and areas nearby have the biggest difference in anomalies. Many inland areas in the southeast appear to have about the same anomalies.

[pcbjr]

It looks like the immediate coastal areas and areas nearby have the biggest difference in anomalies. Many inland areas in the southeast appear to have about the same anomalies.

 

This is Advil time ....

 

+PNA  -EPO

 

Where the heck are we actually?

[FallsLake]

6z GFS keeps some hope up for this Friday. Has a low developing off the coast and generates some light precip over east and north central NC. 850s would have fallen to 0c over north central NC. Surface temps would be a problem(especially with light precip) and the low is too far off the coast to do many any real good; but maybe this is the first of a westward trend.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=099ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_099_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141110+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

Edit (not much but still time to trend little stronger and westward):

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=06&fhour=102&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[mackerel_sky]

If only this weekends air mass was about 10 degrees colder! Precip looks to be a given by Sunday, but liquid unfortunately outside the mountains, but rain is desperately needed imby!

[POWERSTROKE]

If only this weekends air mass was about 10 degrees colder! Precip looks to be a given by Sunday, but liquid unfortunately outside the mountains, but rain is desperately needed imby!

I will take rain as well for now.  We could use some rain right now for sure

[Kory]

The Euro is showing a bit more rain for the SE than the GFS.  Here's the HPC forecasted precip through day 7.