Marion_NC_WX Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 There's quite a southern stream event that looks to be brewing on tonight's 0z GFS just prior to truncation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 850mb temp loop shows constant reinforced shots of Arctic air into the CONUS. Impressive.. and it's only November. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/mod/index.php?type=00-GFS-NA-850-temp-0-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Pretty interesting system in GFS la la land. Big hitter for the Mid-Atlantic. It will probably be a Lakers Cutter at 06z, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Anyway, the Euro long-range stuff.. wasn't really a problem before. It seems like you guys are model watching already since the little snow that happened in SC recently. It's still early and the models (even the Euro & CFS) have been flipping from cold to warm for quite a while. (long range wise, who cares about GFS? lol) I personally think many in the SE will end up cpl degrees below normal for their average. Some colder, some warmer. Nothing but good things on the way, bank on it. I just looked at some data I requested from Noaa on KCAE since 1940.. and there have been quite a few march and april snows. This could be one of those years. I honestly have a "gut-feeling" that those anomalies may hit in the late Jan/ eary Feb time-frame for us. Maybe i'm wish casting. 2 years KCAE had big snows. 1973 & 2010. (from the 1940 yr + records) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Yep from hearing everything on the weather sites and TV I thought next weekend would be highs in the 30's and lows in the teens. Just looks kinda normal to me for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 6z GFS tries to get some (very light)precip going as the cold air pushes in late next week for areas of NC. As of right now not much showing up and temps would always be a concern. (but)This is still outside of 5 days and we should keep an eye on this time period. We've seen this before where the models initially see a storm at the day 8/7 range lose it around day 6/5 to then find it again. Not saying this will happen now but who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Well RAH threw some "cold rain" on my hopes: MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT A WAVE OF LOWPRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE ALONG THE LEADING POLAR FRONTTHURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OFTHIS DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS... ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHERWOULD BE TO HAVE A COLD RAIN POTENTIAL.MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE COLDER AIR LAG IN REACHING OURREGION DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PLACEMENT (NOT FAVORABLE TO DELIVERCAA/DAA DIRECTLY INTO CENTRAL NC). THIS WOULD LIMIT ANYFROZEN/FREEZING P-TYPE POTENTIAL TO VERY VERY LOW ODDS.THE COLDEST AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY(AFTER THE POTENTIAL WAVINESS DEPARTS) WHEN THE CORE OF THE HIGHPRESSURE FINALLY REACHES A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER THE GREAT LAKESTO NEW ENGLAND TO DELIVER THE CAA DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.THEREFORE... EXPECT TO SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT HOLDOFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD FALLSOLIDLY INTO THE 20S.THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHOT OFCOLD AIR HEADS OUR WAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES ENOUGH WARMING FORRAIN AS P-TYPE AS THE COLD SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE A BIT TOOQUICKLY. HOWEVER... HYBRID CAD MAY KEEP IT A COLD RAIN SUNDAY ASMODELS ARE OFTEN TOO QUICK TO DISLODGE THE RESIDUAL COLD DRY AIRASSOCIATED WITH POLAR HIGHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 It's getting a little dry in Dixie. Models are locking on to a wet pattern in the 5-10 day range for parts of the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 I thought this was a great analysis by CoastalWx in the NE forum about the Euro seasonal. Euro seasonal is interesting. For started it looks like temps are near normal after suggesting the DJF aggregate it a little above. However, it has somewhat AN (nothting abnormal) all over the place from the Pacfic Ocean right through the East Coast. Only a small area near the SW US and west coast has heights near normal. By JFM we have now more ridging into AK similar to last year and still slightly AN heights over the east coast. Temps however look near avg..maybe even a hair below verbatim. However, the big thing I take away is that much of the US south of 40-42N and up East Coast especially just offshore are AN for precip. That may explain why heights are AN over such a large area during DJF especially. All the storminess bringing in warmer air aloft relative to normal...at least that is my theory. So overall it looks pretty good. If you weed through the noise..it seems like we have some ridging out west and into AK and it gets stronger heading through the season. The only thing is that it advertises a +NAO rising to near neutral and then negative perhaps in the back end. I don't like when the models have massive areas of warmer and cooler heights because it doesn't give you a good feel for the pattern. Hopefully the eurosip has a clue next week. I feel like these next few weeks haven't really gone as first though, so take these forecasts with a massive grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) 11/9/14, 07:19 16 days over US on GFS. Likely top 5 as cold a mid November period for nation rockies east as ever recorded pic.twitter.com/IkCQb7jv7U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 The Euro seasonal showed a warm winter for last winter, we know how that verified. The Euro weeklies just busted bad for Nov, they were showing a torch for Nov. Don't listen to the one or two people on this forum that are going to trumpet anything that shows a warm winter. This sounds an awful lot like: Don't pay attention to any warm scenarios. Only listen to the multitude of cold forecasts and indicators that are being trumpeted. That's not a wise way to approach long range weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 DT says the low in the Bering Sea was the strongest ever there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 New blog from Judah Cohen (the Eurasian snow cover advance author, along with others) says the processes in the high latitudes are kicking off a little earlier than normal this fall...all good signs so far for -AO winter. Really good blog to follow if you are into that kind of thang - http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation "Based on our analysis of snow cover variability, vertical wave propagation (here represented by the vertical component of the wave activity flux, or WAFz) usually becomes active in early December. However, Figure 3 indicates that the GFS model is already predicting that the WAFz become active the third week of November, resulting in a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex soon thereafter. Our own analysis supports the GFS finding on the WAFz, as mentioned above. Although sudden stratospheric warmings are more typical in early-mid winter, the setup as of now favors an earlier warming event, possibly in late November / early December. Although the AO will be in a negative state in week 2, it will likely transition to neutral or even positive as the stratospheric warming event gets underway." "Given the predicted already weakened state of the stratospheric polar vortex, we are monitoring closely a possible early weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. The response in the troposphere following the stratospheric warming event is a more negative AO state, which is typically experienced about a week after the warming event and can persist for several weeks thereafter. This should promote colder temperatures across northern Eurasia and probably the Central and Southeastern US by mid-December. Before that coupling actually happens, historical analysis indicates the surface AO will be neutral or even positive. Hence, early December may feature a possible warmup for the Lower 48 before colder air returns in mid-December." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 New blog from Judah Cohen (the Eurasian snow cover advance author, along with others) says the processes in the high latitudes are kicking off a little earlier than normal this fall...all good signs so far for -AO winter. Really good blog to follow if you are into that kind of thang - http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation "Based on our analysis of snow cover variability, vertical wave propagation (here represented by the vertical component of the wave activity flux, or WAFz) usually becomes active in early December. However, Figure 3 indicates that the GFS model is already predicting that the WAFz become active the third week of November, resulting in a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex soon thereafter. Our own analysis supports the GFS finding on the WAFz, as mentioned above. Although sudden stratospheric warmings are more typical in early-mid winter, the setup as of now favors an earlier warming event, possibly in late November / early December. Although the AO will be in a negative state in week 2, it will likely transition to neutral or even positive as the stratospheric warming event gets underway." "Given the predicted already weakened state of the stratospheric polar vortex, we are monitoring closely a possible early weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. The response in the troposphere following the stratospheric warming event is a more negative AO state, which is typically experienced about a week after the warming event and can persist for several weeks thereafter. This should promote colder temperatures across northern Eurasia and probably the Central and Southeastern US by mid-December. Before that coupling actually happens, historical analysis indicates the surface AO will be neutral or even positive. Hence, early December may feature a possible warmup for the Lower 48 before colder air returns in mid-December." Very nice, if that comes to fruition that will be perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 GFS parallel brings in the mother load of cold air in the LR drops the PV all the way almost onto KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 GFS parallel brings in the mother load of cold air in the LR drops the PV all the way almost onto KYwhat's the link to the Para gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 what's the link to the Para gfs?I'm using Sv but they also have it on tropical tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 what's the link to the Para gfs? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 what's the link to the Para gfs? It's free on Weatherbell until it take over old GFS in December, I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Euro is mighty chilly at 120 and 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Yeah, Para is cold burger...this says "GFS" on the label at the bottom, but this is the GFS Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 I see the GFS is taking our rain away. Going to be dry forever it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Euro rolling and looking interesting as far as flakes for WNC, surface temps may be just a tad too warm though. That is a pretty decent storm down in the gulf with good timing if the Euro were to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Euro rolling and looking interesting as far as flakes for WNC, surface temps may be just a tad too warm though. That is a pretty decent storm down in the gulf with good timing if the Euro were to be correct.yeah that energy dropping down the backside of the trough is what I have been watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Euro rolling and looking interesting as far as flakes for WNC, surface temps may be just a tad too warm though. That is a pretty decent storm down in the gulf with good timing if the Euro were to be correct.That second piece of energy dropping down initiates cyclogenesis in the NW Gulf. Nice storm for the Southern Plains and perhaps points East. Like I said yesterday, Euro has been showing a stormy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 That second piece of energy dropping down initiates cyclogenesis in the NW Gulf. Nice storm for the Southern Plains and perhaps points East. Like I said yesterday, Euro has been showing a stormy pattern.It looks like it has some potential, but don't think the air will be cold or strong enough to beat, be here when moisture arrives. Gone are the days of a nice wintry storm hitting N TX and just rolling east to the SE. Either they get it and we don't , or vice versa. But this blocking and atmospheric set up are highly anonamalous and anything could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 12z Euro is very close to an early season winter storm for the North Carolina mountains/foothills Day 8...if that southern stream can dig and sharpen a bit more. Euro as a whole is very cold for November standards...30's to around 40 for high's Friday's along I-40, mid 40's Northern AL/GA/SC, will have to get about 50 miles south of I-20 to reach 50 degrees for a high on Friday... On Saturday I-40 gets back into the 40's per Euro only for it to drop again next Sunday and Monday due to the southern stream system... Then a second (colder) blast of air for early the following week... The numbers on the Euro for next weekend would be 5-10 below average for early January norms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Wow this is impressive looking at the Euro. This November is destined for the record books if things verify. We are already off to a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 It looks like it has some potential, but don't think the air will be cold or strong enough to beat, be here when moisture arrives. Gone are the days of a nice wintry storm hitting N TX and just rolling east to the SE. Either they get it and we don't , or vice versa. But this blocking and atmospheric set up are highly anonamalous and anything could happen. In November?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 In November?? I miss the November winter storms of my youth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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