Brick Tamland Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Just stuns me that RAH and others are looking out for something wintry in November. Maybe nothing will happen, but having this cold and just having something to keep an eye on this time of year is awesome and I think foreshadowing of what is to come this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Euro seasonal not on board for cold eastern half of US until late winter (after Nov. cold) per JB. If I understood him correctly! Someone can correct me if I wrong..... that's the way I interpreted it. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 that's the way I interpreted it. TW Correct, but he also said he didn't believe that model would end up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Euro seasonal not on board for cold eastern half of US until late winter (after Nov. cold) per JB. If I understood him correctly! Someone can correct me if I wrong..... ?????????? I'm not a WeatherBell subscriber, but all of the Tweets and Facebook and free stuff JB has put out has basically gone wall-to-wall below average temps. Is he backing off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 ?????????? I'm not a WeatherBell subscriber, but all of the Tweets and Facebook and free stuff JB has put out has basically gone wall-to-wall below average temps. Is he backing off? not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 I just looking at what good ole KFFC says... It's just the NWS, what do they know? Seriously though they should drop those temps as we get closer. If the cold that some models show actually comes to fruition it's going to be colder than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Correct, but he also said he didn't believe that model would end up being right. But He also believes it's cause for concern after all it is usually the KING, But he does think it's wrong right now? But he said if changes needs to be made then so be it.. In others words NEVER discount the KING even though it's wrong lots of times too!!! It was totally wrong last winter... He had much rather have it in his camp!!! But as Franklin said earlier D'Aleo had a good write up this morning, with this COLD Nov. and the analogs they used for winter looks on track> SO hopefully Euro is on crack. Before Thanksgiving LOT of snow on the maps, Northern tier of the US. WOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Euro seasonal not on board for cold eastern half of US until late winter (after Nov. cold) per JB. If I understood him correctly! Someone can correct me if I wrong.....I thought the polar vortex was coming down next weekend and the week after that? That should be pretty cold!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 I thought the polar vortex was coming down next weekend and the week after that? That should be pretty cold!? lol, It comes Dec. 25th for a brief visit, then it must go back to the north pole........................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 lol, It comes Dec. 25th for a brief visit, then it must go back to the north pole........................................... People need too pay att too the warming in the artic if the warming last thou nov chances are dec will be cold also . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Bastardi snipletts COMMENT ON EUROPEAN SEASONAL.. LIKE LAST NOVEMBER , NO FRIEND OF OURS NOW November 8 11:41 AM The European winter forecast now has what looks to be a positive AO ........ The model seems to continually back a ridge into the southeast .......... So what is the conclusion? it is not to change the forecast at this time ..... Arghhh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Bastardi snipletts COMMENT ON EUROPEAN SEASONAL.. LIKE LAST NOVEMBER , NO FRIEND OF OURS NOW November 8 11:41 AM The European winter forecast now has what looks to be a positive AO ........ The model seems to continually back a ridge into the southeast .......... So what is the conclusion? it is not to change the forecast at this time ..... Arghhh.... Yeah, that what I was referring to. He said no changes. He thinks it's wrong but you could tell he does have some concern! Ocean temperatures analogues amd the pattern does not fit what the seasonal euro is showing? I guess we will find out come March. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Arghhh.... Is that an "Arghhh...." to a model change, to JB, to the fact that every minute someone has a different idea ...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Is that an "Arghhh...." to a model change, to JB, to the fact that every minute someone has a different idea ...? the euro epps is the best model too look at. thease euro weeklies an seasonal models are a joke really ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 The Euro seasonal is certainly not a joke. For a long range model it's the best available. Euro weeklies are also a great tool to use. I'm not sure why anyone would say they aren't good models unless you just didn't like what they were showing. It very well could be wrong but to call it a joke is ridiculous IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Euro seasonal not on board for cold eastern half of US until late winter (after Nov. cold) per JB. If I understood him correctly! Someone can correct me if I wrong..... Late Winter meaning late Feb/March ? That would be our worst nightmare if the cold took a break until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 The Euro seasonal is certainly not a joke. For a long range model it's the best available. Euro weeklies are also a great tool to use. I'm not sure why anyone would say they aren't good models unless you just didn't like what they were showing. It very well could be wrong but to call it a joke is ridiculous IMO. Maybe the best available but certainly what's available long range isn't very good. They can be useful for sometimes picking out pattern changes but last winter I remember they seemed to flip around all the time and never really had a good handle on things. Models struggle enough 240 hours out trying to pick a pattern up as it is, ensembles are about as far out in time as I'm comfortable with for general pattern changes. November looks cold through the end of the month, question is what does December bring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 The Euro seasonal is certainly not a joke. For a long range model it's the best available. Euro weeklies are also a great tool to use. I'm not sure why anyone would say they aren't good models unless you just didn't like what they were showing. It very well could be wrong but to call it a joke is ridiculous IMO. U take models like thease with a grain of salt . for the last 2 winter's the euro weeklies has been wrong it's a warm baised model. the euro epps is a ensemble . The euro was one of the models saying big elnino? guess what, wrong just a weak one ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Arghhh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Maybe the best available but certainly what's available long range isn't very good. They can be useful for sometimes picking out pattern changes but last winter I remember they seemed to flip around all the time and never really had a good handle on things. Models struggle enough 240 hours out trying to pick a pattern up as it is, ensembles are about as far out in time as I'm comfortable with for general pattern changes. November looks cold through the end of the month, question is what does December bring? I agree an if the artic keeps warming dec will be cold also, which is looking very likely ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Maybe the best available but certainly what's available long range isn't very good. They can be useful for sometimes picking out pattern changes but last winter I remember they seemed to flip around all the time and never really had a good handle on things. Models struggle enough 240 hours out trying to pick a pattern up as it is, ensembles are about as far out in time as I'm comfortable with for general pattern changes. November looks cold through the end of the month, question is what does December bring? Agreed, but to dismiss them outright as a joke is a big mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 I just get this feeling that some people have it set in their minds that this winter is going to be cold and snowy. All the meteorologists are saying it will be cold and snowy. Is it not possible that this winter ends up being a normal winter or even warmer than normal ? I just hope people are not getting their hopes up too much. Nobody knows what will happen this winter. Sometimes, I wish this were like the old days and you didn't have all of these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Agreed, but to dismiss them outright as a joke is a big mistake. Certainly agree with you, if they continue showing a warm pattern coming up for most of winter then I'll be concerned. But it's only one run and I would guess it switches back to cold in the next run or two, if not that would be a red flag if it keeps showing that. I do think December will be a wild month with lots of warm/cold extremes, warmer maybe the first part then a cold pattern setting up near the end. Hard to say too far out, but this winter looks very intriguing with the blocking we are setting up early. I've noticed previous winters the blocking we establish in November generally sets the tone for December thriugh February period, so if that pattern holds true the winter should be quite cold with ample blocking. Not much data to back this up just my opinion and observations, interested to see how it works out this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Is that an "Arghhh...." to a model change, to JB, to the fact that every minute someone has a different idea ...?Argh at the Euro SeasonalsIn balance, one can never expect everything to be absolutely perfectly in line...it never is. The next 45 days are critical for our final core winter setup. I sure am going to enjoy each mountain snowfall one by one.....never know for sure which one is gonna be the biggest of th season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Argh at the Euro Seasonals JB hasn't changed since April but it's only November. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 The Euro seasonal showed a warm winter for last winter, we know how that verified. The Euro weeklies just busted bad for Nov, they were showing a torch for Nov. Don't listen to the one or two people on this forum that are going to trumpet anything that shows a warm winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Any one thinking it's right is the one making a mistake ! funny some trust a model over real data an fact's . many mets trust it last winter, only for it too fail on them! Link of these Mets that only used one model and their fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 of coarse they used more than one but some on here are claiming euro seasonals are the best . i want call there names out but they was all over twitter an face book calling for a neutral normal winter ! So basically you are just typing to have your name in this thread for poops and giggles Here's some friendly advice....read more and post less, especially in this pinned thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 I smell a BriarCreekwx / Wilksdud is amongst us! Next weekend looks below normal, this week looks toasty, still not much rain though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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