burgertime Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Scratching my head on this one (seems to generally fly in the face of all we're seeing and reading): CFSv2.NaT2mProb.20141108.201412.gif If the first part of December is above average that would be about right. A lot of mets feel that the cold air will truly start spilling in around late Dec and actually had Dec falling on the above average side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I thought the Euro looked very cold at the end of it's run. You have a very dense cold airmass dropping in with 534 thickness dropping into Alabama. You're also seeing extremely cold 850's showing up near central Canada with -20 850's around Ohio. While these cold air masses may moderate by the time we get to them the fact is on the models it's looking like the middle of January. These look straight up like winter patterns. I think that's what's so exciting right now. What actually happens is a whole nother story. The polar vortex is displaced so far south due to some extreme blocking up by the poles. Definitely a winter pattern...and the European looks quite stormy for the SE after about 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 If the first part of December is above average that would be about right. A lot of mets feel that the cold air will truly start spilling in around late Dec and actually had Dec falling on the above average side. Bingo, there is a growing contingent of forecasters seeing a warm first half of Dec. Nothing to panic about imo because honestly early Dec isn't exactly prime time climo for the SE. It's better than November but still not a time where you normally thi k about lots of snowstorm potential for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 FWIW: @RaleighWX: Day 10 500mb anomaly from the 12z ECMWF is stunning. Insane blocking, very cold pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Bingo, there is a growing contingent of forecasters seeing a warm first half of Dec. Nothing to panic about imo because honestly early Dec isn't exactly prime time climo for the SE. It's better than November but still not a time where you normally thi k about lots of snowstorm potential for this region. No panic. I just thougt it interesting given some of the below to well-below Dec maps posted here and elsewhere. Only tossed this out for observation .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 FWIW: @RaleighWX: Day 10 500mb anomaly from the 12z ECMWF is stunning. Insane blocking, very cold pattern Too busy panicking to listen to reason. sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Too busy panicking to listen to reason. sorry. Blocky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 To those of you guys without weatherbell maps (wish I could post those gorgeous things here), check out Ryan Maue's Twitter sometimes. He posts a lot of it, especially important things. 10-day 850s on GFS are ridiculous in parts of the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 76 analog alive and well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Strong signal for a storm next week on the euro ensembles. Alot of spread but some are cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 To those of you guys without weatherbell maps (wish I could post those gorgeous things here), check out Ryan Maue's Twitter sometimes. He posts a lot of it, especially important things. 10-day 850s on GFS are ridiculous in parts of the USA. GFS parallel at 240 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I thought the Euro looked very cold at the end of it's run. You have a very dense cold airmass dropping in with 534 thickness dropping into Alabama. You're also seeing extremely cold 850's showing up near central Canada with -20 850's around Ohio. While these cold air masses may moderate by the time we get to them the fact is on the models it's looking like the middle of January. These look straight up like winter patterns. I think that's what's so exciting right now. What actually happens is a whole nother story. Not to mention they will be hopefully allowing for the snow pack over the Midwest and GL to start building, this will help these airmasses stay colder for longer as the winter builds in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I'm still just amazed at how people are basically Pooping on this upcoming cold weather because it just isn't showing ridiculous temperatures. I mean if this was January we would be talking about life-threatening cold if you compare the anomalies. The one great thing us southerners always been able to say is that winter truly lasts about 4to 6 weeks. However given what the models are showing right now, we are going to be adding 2-3 more weeks to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Bingo, there is a growing contingent of forecasters seeing a pwarm first half of Dec. Nothing to panic about imo because honestly early Dec isn't exactly prime time climo for the SE. It's better than November but still not a time where you normally thi k about lots of snowstorm potential for this region. there's nothing like warm weather to get you in the Christmas spirit. Honestly, if there's any winter month I dont want warmth its December. It would totally suck if December ended up warm and snowless and the cold and snow waited until January . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 there's nothing like warm weather to get you in the Christmas spirit. Honestly, if there's any winter month I dont want warmth its December. It would totally suck if December ended up warm and snowless and the cold and snow waited until January . Reality is nobody has a crystal ball that will tell us what mid December will look like. It could be an icebox in the SE with a big snowstorm. I was just throwing out what I've seen from some forecasters recently, basically if they had to place their bets (some of them actually have to because they have energy clients) they are going with a cautious route regarding extreme cold toward the end of November and start of December. Personally I love cold from thanksgiving through New Years like you said for the spirit but what I want and like doesn't mean jack to what actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Anything in November is a HUGE bonus. December would be good but we always get going Jan thru Mar. We will be fine in store for a big fun winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 -EPO/ Retrograding West -NAO...yeah, that's a pretty intense blocking combo. Single digits showing in southern Illinois, -17 in South Dakota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 RAH still keeping an eye open for late next week (they seem to have left out some details): .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY......TURNING MUCH COLDER LATE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES ANDSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS FROM 65 TO 70 ANDMINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH EDGES EASTON TUESDAY...ENSUING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INSOLATION WILL WARM TEMPSUP A FEW DEGREES...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 70S...AND THECOOLER NORTHWEST REACHING THE UPPER 60S.A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA LATEWEDNESDAY. DEEPER FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...LIMITINGMOISTURE ADVECTION TO SMALL CHANCES AT BEST. THE LATE DAY FRONTARRIVAL AND LACK OF HEAVIER CLOUDINESS WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENTWARMUP AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60SWITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSUREBUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND BEGINS TO FLOW SOUTH DOWN THECOAST. MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40SSOUTHEAST. COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHSMOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST THROUGHSATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES FALL OFF DURING THE LATE WEEKTIME FRAME...HOWEVER...THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL NOT BE IDEALFOR MAINTAINING A DAMMING SCENARIO...BUT THE GFS SHOWS POTENTIALDEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT AS IT LIES JUST OFFSHOREWHICH COULD ENHANCE COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WELL AS POSSIBLYISENTROPICALLY INDUCED LIGHT PRECIP AND CLOUDINESS. AT THIS EARLYJUNCTURE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS INTRODUCTION OF SMALL CHANCE POPS FORLIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY...SKEWED TOWARDS THE COAST AND HOLD OFFMODIFICATIONS TO THE FRIDAY FORECAST TO SEE IF MODEL CONSENSUSEMERGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I'm still just amazed at how people are basically Pooping on this upcoming cold weather because it just isn't showing ridiculous temperatures. I mean if this was January we would be talking about life-threatening cold if you compare the anomalies. The one great thing us southerners always been able to say is that winter truly lasts about 4to 6 weeks. However given what the models are showing right now, we are going to be adding 2-3 more weeks to that The forecast for Atlanta next Saturday is 52 and 32, big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 The forecast for Atlanta next Saturday is 52 and 32, big deal.let us know how that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 -EPO/ Retrograding West -NAO...yeah, that's a pretty intense blocking combo. Single digits showing in southern Illinois, -17 in South Dakota the epo departureso are off the charts, wpo forecasted to go negative as well. Vodka cold is on the way, really lining up with Nov 76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 18z GFS has a deepening of the central U.S. trough next weekend...wintry precip breaking out in Ark/La/Tx into N MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 18z GFS has a deepening of the central U.S. trough next weekend...wintry precip breaking out in Ark/La/Tx into N MS As we've discussed before the models look to be having a very difficult time with this emerging pattern. I think there is definitely potential for somebody(possible many) in the SE to get a winter event during the next few weeks. It may take 72-96 hours time range before the models start homing in on the correct solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 18z GFS has a deepening of the central U.S. trough next weekend...wintry precip breaking out in Ark/La/Tx into N MSI have been watching that wave that drops down the back side of the trough after the front comes thru. Might be worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 let us know how that works out. I just looking at what good ole KFFC says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 The forecast for Atlanta next Saturday is 52 and 32, big deal. its about 10 degrees below average. Not an arctic airmass, but pretty chilly for mid November. Nothing too unusual though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I just looking at what good ole KFFC says...they will gradually lower it as you get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Euro seasonal not on board for cold eastern half of US until late winter (after Nov. cold) per JB. If I understood him correctly! Someone can correct me if I wrong..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 FWIW: @RaleighWX: Day 10 500mb anomaly from the 12z ECMWF is stunning. Insane blocking, very cold pattern Worth a lot coming from RaleighWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Euro seasonal not on board for cold eastern half of US until late winter (after Nov. cold) per JB. If I understood him correctly! Someone can correct me if I wrong..... Didn't they also predict a warm November? I wouldn't worry, we have an awesome pattern set up for the next week or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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