Cold Rain Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Nice post, hopefully if the discussion continues everyone including myself can keep the discussion from getting personal. I've decided to take a little edge off my posting style because I obviously ruffled some feathers the other day with my style. Thanks. Everyone goes through ups and downs and it's often hard to ascertain tone in a post. It's all good. I shouldn't have gotten into it the other day anyway, so sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I feel like the works has been done for you though. Look at Allan's long range forecast or DT's. They've crunched the numbers, that's what led to Larry doing his work. Everyone is pretty much in agreement that all signs point to a below average winter. Anything and everything can change of course since at the end of the day ma' nature does what ma' nature wants...but the science and math all points to below average for much of the winter. I don't disagree with anything in the Winter forecasts that have been presented (all overwhelmingly cold). Everything does in general point to a colder than average Dec-Feb. I promise you that has never been something I have questioned. I did question Larry's stats. I didn't feel that one reporting station was enough to add to the picture that we are more likely to end up cold and snowy for Dec-Feb. I felt the data was incomplete and the conclusions be made from that data were not appropriate. So, instead you nitpick someone that actually did spend a lot of time doing the research? Look we agree to disagree, I've stated what data I was looking for and it wasn't provided. I also stated that one reporting station doesn't tell us much and I still stand by that. You can call it nitpicking, I'll call it me expressing my opinion that it's not enough data to make conclusions from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 From WxSouth on facebook: European Model and the others continue to paint a truly Middle-Of-Winter type of flow across North America. Tons of blocking, a Split-flow, eventually a supressed storm track, possible overrunnng pretty far south, and very, VERY cold highs coming down. We don't see a large 1050 millibar High in most Winters--Yet the ECMWF continues to increase the size of this monster. The flow looks like it will keep pulling down the cold air into Canada and the United States well into November, with super negative AO , EPO pattern and massive blocking at the Poles and near Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Thanks. Everyone goes through ups and downs and it's often hard to ascertain tone in a post. It's all good. I shouldn't have gotten into it the other day anyway, so sorry about that. I apologize for my political tirade yesterday and will not let it happen again. Everyone has bad day, that was obviously one of mine. I won't engage anymore. I think it's safe to say most folks are about done hearing what I have to say about November at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The whole wasted pattern/pattern flipping discussion is just silly in and of itself. And I'm not criticizing a soul here because I'm participating too. There is no reason to think that when this pattern breaks down a long lasting warm pattern is going to set in. Absolutely none whatsoever. If there were, if the weather worked like that and you had a two month period of cold followed by a two month period of warm, then that would make sense. But it doesn't, so it doesn't. This cold pattern might last a month or it might last two weeks. The subsequent pattern might be a warm one or a variable one. And it might last a month or it might last two weeks. Nobody has been claiming that we will be wall to wall cold, based on past statistical research. What has been put forward is that certain conditions in October and November statistically correlate to a cold ON AVERAGE winter. Patterns will flip. They might go to cold, warm, or variable. And they might last a week or a month. But one thing is fairly certain: You're not wasting a cold pattern in early November any more than you are wasting one in early July. Well, since nobody else is, I might as well go ahead and claim that. Then, if I'm right, I'll look like a genius. So, mark it down here: Calculus1 claims this winter will be wall-to-wall, extremity-numbing, mind-blowing cold reminiscent of the last ice age. I just hope the electricity will remain on even as glaciers form over the power line poles, so that I can receive the credit I would be due on this forum for calling this once-in-a-millennium winter. Nice post, hopefully if the discussion continues everyone including myself can keep the discussion from getting personal. I've decided to take a little edge off my posting style because I obviously ruffled some feathers the other day with my style. I can already notice this change in style from your posts today, compared to the other day. Kudos. I call it bashing. You said right off of the bat that my analysis was essentially worthless and not scientific (pretty much your words), even before I had a chance to answer any of your Q's. That's bashing, plain and simple. So, I knew right off of the bat your goal was to minimize what I presented as trivial in importance. Then, I knew not to even waste time answering your Q's because of your obvious motive. Plus, I've been noticing other negatively toned posts of yours (not toward me) and to, therefore, be extra careful with you. Come on, GaWx, MariettaWx apologized above. So, maybe we can all just "Let it go! Let it go!" Who's with me? "Do you wanna build a snowman?" I know I do. "The cold never bothered me anyway..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Well, since nobody else is, I might as well go ahead and claim that. Then, if I'm right, I'll look like a genius. So, mark it down here: Calculus1 claims this winter will be wall-to-wall, extremity-numbing, mind-blowing cold reminiscent of the last ice age. I just hope the electricity will remain on even as glaciers form over the power line poles, so that I can receive the credit I would be due on this forum for calling this once-in-a-millennium winter. I can already notice this change in style from your posts today, compared to the other day. Kudos. Come on, GaWx, MariettaWx apologized above. So, maybe we can all just "Let it go! Let it go!" Who's with me? "Do you wanna build a snowman?" I know I do. "The cold never bothered me anyway..." Ok, wall to wall cold it is! I've been out of town all week with no computer access and it's been particularly hard not to be able to see the models this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Maybe a visual will help. Here are Dec-Feb temperature anomalies following the top 20 coldest Novembers on record in Charlotte since 1895. Temperature anomaly patterns over a 3 month period are generally quite uniform, so using a single site such as Atlanta or Charlotte to represent the southeast as a whole should be perfectly fine. If we were talking about precipitation anomaly patterns, that would be different - more variance there. GaWx - can you confirm that you have mostly similar years in your data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Ok, wall to wall cold it is! I've been out of town all week with no computer access and it's been particularly hard not to be able to see the models this week. you really need to get a smartphone. The euro is awesome on an S5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 you really need to get a smartphone. The euro is awesome on an S5! I'm using my iPhone 5c (work phone), but it's still sort of difficult to scan and you have to zoom in and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Maybe a visual will help. Here are Dec-Feb temperature anomalies following the top 20 coldest Novembers on record in Charlotte since 1895. Temperature anomaly patterns over a 3 month period are generally quite uniform, so using a single site such as Atlanta or Charlotte to represent the southeast as a whole should be perfectly fine. If we were talking about precipitation anomaly patterns, that would be different - more variance there. GaWx - can you confirm that you have mostly similar years in your data? It still blows my mind that last winter could have ended up on that list after December. We really pulled a rabbit out of a hat on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Winters following the top 20 warmest Novembers on record in Charlotte... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Maybe a visual will help. Here are Dec-Feb temperature anomalies following the top 20 coldest Novembers on record in Charlotte since 1895. Temperature anomaly patterns over a 3 month period are generally quite uniform, so using a single site such as Atlanta or Charlotte to represent the southeast as a whole should be perfectly fine. If we were talking about precipitation anomaly patterns, that would be different - more variance there. GaWx - can you confirm that you have mostly similar years in your data? Winters following the top 20 warmest Novembers on record in Charlotte... Very neat stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Grit, Thanks for posting your two maps. They are very telling and support my conclusions. However, keep in mind that I only looked at the 33 cases that ranged from high end neutral positive ENSO to low end moderate El Nino. Now, the ones you used for cold (warm) Charlotte Novembers that overlapped were all also cold (warm) Atlanta Novembers: cold Novembers at both locations after narrowing for ENSO: 1976, 1911, 1951, 1895, 1969 warm Novembers at both locations after narrowing for ENSO: 1994, 1990, 1927, 1958, 1935 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 OK, Ga, I forgot that part about ENSO.... Winters following the cold Novembers in Pos Neu to Low Mod Nino... Winters following the warm Novembers in Pos Neu to Low Mod Nino... 1935-1936 was one of the coldest/snowiest winters in history in Charlotte (good in Atlanta too I believe)....so, if we cheat a little and take that one out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Grit, Thanks. Even if you include 1935-6, one can still see the big difference. So, that is supportive. I decided to take your map generating idea and do it for the top ten cold KATL Nov.'s vs. top ten warm KATL Nov.'s (since 1895-6) narrowed by ENSO. One can clearly see that this also supports my analysis with DJF after cold Nov.'s averaging quite a bit colder than those after warm Nov.'s (for appropriate ENSO): DJF after top ten cold KATL Nov.'s narrowed by ENSO in ballpark of 2014-5: DJF after top ten warm KATL Nov.'s narrowed by ENSO in ballpark of 2014-5: Edit: It is no surprise that even the ten warmest Nov.'s are followed by nonwarm DJF's on average in the SE for this ENSO range. I attribute that to the overall chilly ENSO being considered. Regardless, the ones following cold Nov.'s were quite a bit colder on average. There's no debating this data imo. So, I challenge MariettaWx to try his best to refute what we've both shown with hard data instead of just poopooing without facts the idea that cold Nov. would be still another factor that would tend to favor a cold DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Larry, Grit, That's some really good research. I would even say that is boarder line money making kind of stuff. Would probably want to refine it to determine if the cold was predominate in the first half of the month or later. Not sure if that's even possible. Early this year natural gas prices lowed because it was thought that NE temps would not be that bad. They are spiking now because many now realize that will probably be wrong. (so) Do your research and get into stocks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Not bad for this far out: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY... ...TURNING MUCH COLDER AT THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK... NWP GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HE EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IN THE LONGER TERM. AN INTENSE STORM ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR ALASKA WILL RESULT IN THE DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER FAR WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CROSS POLAR FLOW AND AN INVASION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. DESPITE THE AGREEMENT IN THE BROAD PATTERN...NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT WILL DRIVE MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME DETAILS...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS ON SUNDAY. LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL NC. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE NEAR AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. THE NAM/GFS/EC ALL DEVELOP WAVE(S) OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST BUT FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM CENTRAL NC TO AVOID ANY PRECIPITATION. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA DEEPENS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN ARRIVES AT THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN TIME...THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND STALLS ACROSS THE SC/GA COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COLD ARCTIC AIR GRADUALLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER AIR FLOW...A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE... AND SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH...NWP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NEW PARALLEL GFS ALONG WITH A HANDFUL OF GEFS MEMBERS DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE. THE LATEST EC IS MUCH LESS EXCITED ABOUT THE PRECIPTIATION POTENTIAL. MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS ASSOCAITED WITH THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF ENERGY MOVING UNDER THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND GULF COAST. FOR NOW...WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHICH IS BELOW HPC AND GFS GUDIANCE. FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS THURSDAY NIGT BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL INCLUDE ONLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL RANGE NEAR 45 NEAR THE VA BRODER TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...IF PRECIPITATION DEVLOPS...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY. -BLAES -- End Changed Discussion -- && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Larry, Grit, That's some really good research. I would even say that is boarder line money making kind of stuff. Would probably want to refine it to determine if the cold was predominate in the first half of the month or later. Not sure if that's even possible. Early this year natural gas prices lowed because it was thought that NE temps would not be that bad. They are spiking now because many now realize that will probably be wrong. (so) Do your research and get into stocks... Falls, Interesting idea. However, I'd prefer not to do so much refining for two reasons: 1) More refining reduces the sample size and, therefore, statistical credibility. 2) That would take a whole lot more work and wouldn't necessarily be so cut and dry to try to classify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I attribute that to the overall chilly ENSO being considered. That's a good point...Nino as a whole is going to be on the cool side regardless of Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Not bad for this far out: FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS THURSDAY NIGT BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL INCLUDE ONLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL RANGE NEAR 45 NEAR THE VA BRODER TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...IF PRECIPITATION DEVLOPS...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY. If they are talking about that this far out in November, then you know this is the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 DJF after top ten cold KATL Nov.'s narrowed by ENSO in ballpark of 2014-5: DJFColdestATLNovSimENSOto2014.png DJF after top ten warm KATL Nov.'s narrowed by ENSO in ballpark of 2014-5: DJFWarmestATLNovSimENSOto2014.png Yippie Skippy for deep south prospects then !!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Gentlemen... can we agree to dissagree and just see what happens? We can have an "I told you so" thread in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Gentlemen... can we agree to dissagree and just see what happens? We can have an "I told you so" thread in March Even though I've heard the song a billion times because of my daughter Elsa's "Let it go" is in order here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Even though I've heard the song a billion times because of my daughter Elsa's "Let it go" is in order here. your daughter too? Glad Im not the only one that hears about that movie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 This thread is locked until I can clean it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 If you put your data and forecasts up anywhere on the web, including here, you need to understand some will not agree and will also state their view. Whether or not you feel that an opposing view is based on sound science is irrelevant. It is going to happen. The only opinion you control is your own. I don't intend to have to read through page after page of people taking absolute positions on what is going to happen this winter when the truth is, no one knows. I don't care how much research is done, nothing is set in stone at this point. I don't intend on reading through page after page of butt hurt responses to other peoples opinions. I certainly am not willing to read through page after page of posts by people who decided would be fun to pick a side and jump in with derogatory posts. Since I thought I had addressed this yesterday, some warnings are going out from this. I will read the afternoon part of this thread again before deciding who. For the last time. Clean it up or you'll force me to clean it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 If you put your data and forecasts up anywhere on the web, including here, you need to understand some will not agree and will also state their view. Whether or not you feel that an opposing view is based on sound science is irrelevant. It is going to happen. The only opinion you control is your own. I don't intend to have read through page after page of people taking absolute positions on what is going to happen this winter when the truth is, no one knows. I don't care how much research is done, nothing is set in stone at this point. I don't intend on reading through page after page of butt hurt responses to other peoples opinions. I certainly am not willing to read through page after page of posts by people who decided would be fun to pick a side and jump in with derogatory posts. Since I thought I had addressed this yesterday, some warning are going out from this. I will read the afternoon part of this thread again before deciding who. For the last time. Clean it up or you'll force me to clean it out. jburns, Respectully disagreeing, questioning, and discussing is one thing. However, disrespectfully bashing is another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Well, since nobody else is, I might as well go ahead and claim that. Then, if I'm right, I'll look like a genius. So, mark it down here: Calculus1 claims this winter will be wall-to-wall, extremity-numbing, mind-blowing cold reminiscent of the last ice age. I just hope the electricity will remain on even as glaciers form over the power line poles, so that I can receive the credit I would be due on this forum for calling this once-in-a-millennium winter. Larry Cosgrove's forecast was pretty much wall-to-wall historic cold. Or at least it seemed that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Why are you guys arguing over a pattern flip screwing our Winter up. It's an average among many idea that this Winter could be historical cold wise. No, it probably won't be below normal for every single day through the first half of March. There will be periods of about normal or even above normal. This time around, the thinking is the "warm shots" will be short lived. Usually we deal with short cold shots and then back to normal. Just go with it and see how it plays out. I personally think we will have quite a cold Winter. But no, the Polar Vortex (metaphor) won't be in our face every single day. Just many. Edit: To those in KCAE without 12z Euro, not even one ensemble member shows anything frozen through the whole forecast period. GSO had like 11, and RDU had a couple. All light wintry precip... that's all the areas I checked. To those to SC's North and Mountains, there may be something showing up on the Euro soon, but it's pretty far out. Good signs that the GFS & Parallel have shown potential on a couple runs so far in the time-period. The Euro EPS was the only thing that really helped us figure out what was going to happen with last years ice storm. I will be relying extremely heavily on the individual ensemble members of the Euro other than the OP runs. With some gfs ensemble members mixed in for laughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I'm beginning to lean more and more for very cold and wintry. I'm very interested to see how the stratospheric PV is going to respond to the effects of Nuri. You never know when something might happen that may amplify a winter pattern to be even more anomalous than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.