The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread

[KChuck]

Thanks for the links!  I checked out dates surrounding my wife's birthday and it looks like the period of 11/22-23/52 is the best candidate for snow in the triad. My wife informed me that her mom did not say it snowed ON her birthday, only around it. Thanks again!

 

Here's the file but you need a browser plugin: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1952/19521116.djvu

 

The plugin is on this page as well as the screens to allow you to pick the day you want to look at .The link above is the 16th. No snow in NC I don't think, at least not on that day. :-) I didn't check any other days, but it is fun to poke around on known good days to see what the actual map looked like. 1968 and up have additional maps and charts.

 

http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdocmaps/daily_weather_maps.html

[franklin NCwx]

November icebox!

[Marion_NC_WX]

By that logic if we flip to warm around Thanksgiving then the next pattern reversal has already started before this new pattern can settle on in.  Wow, that made my head hurt.

 

It's no shock to me that you cannot comprehend what I'm saying...

 

 

Let me explain again in elementary terms...

 

Weather patterns do not flip at the snap of a finger...it takes a sequence of events in order to pull it off. We are entering this cold pattern with the help of a monster typhoon that is going to totally re-arrange what's going on downstream. This pattern looks to be holding on for a while...

 

Odds are when we come out the other side of this pattern (whenever that may be) it will take another significant mid-latitude storm to re-shuffle the deck. Heck, if it was January I would be asking for the same thing..."Can we get just one notable winter weather event out of a pattern like this?

 

You can't predict and I can't predict when that is going to happen.

 

So for those in middle November, while you're sitting 20 degrees below normal, it would be wise to hope that maybe we can pull off at least one winter weather event while the flow is so anomalous.

[LithiaWx]

It's no shock to me that you cannot comprehend what I'm saying...

 

 

Let me explain again in elementary terms...

 

Weather patterns do not flip at the snap of a finger...it takes a sequence of events in order to pull it off. We are entering this cold pattern with the help of a monster typhoon that is going to totally re-arrange what's going on downstream. This pattern looks to be holding on for a while...

 

Odds are when we come out the other side of this pattern (whenever that may be) it will take another significant mid-latitude storm to re-shuffle the deck. Heck, if it was January I would be asking for the same thing..."Can we get just one notable winter weather event out of a pattern like this?

 

You can't predict and I can't predict when that is going to happen.

 

So for those in middle November, while you're sitting 20 degrees below normal, it would be wise to hope that maybe we can pull off at least one winter weather event while the flow is so anomalous.

 

Sure that is mainly correct but this is what you said :

 

Here is the point I'm trying to make...be careful with wishing "hey, I won't mind a December warmup as long as the pattern flips back in January" ... Pattern reversals just does not happen overnight it takes a period of several weeks up to about a month. This current pattern that we are getting ready to enter has been about three or four weeks in the works plus it's getting the assistance of a massive tropical system.

 

Again, by that logic if we flip near Thanksgiving to a warmer pattern those changes should be starting now. They won't be for about 10-14 days and the change looks to be fairly quick.  Pattern changes don't allways take 3-4 weeks to materialize. The reality is that this cold shot may not last that long.  There is a met in the TN forum who doesn't see this is a long term shift lasting more than a few weeks before we shift to normal then possibly above normal :  Here is what he said :

 

 

12Z Euro already showing hints the Alaska ridge is just a 10-14 day event. Aleutians low trying to nudge east over the rest of the state by Day 15. That would also allow weak troughing on the West Coast under any West Canada ridge. I don't think cold will lock in through all of November. Might be a break around Thanksgiving. Nino years sometimes have a mild December before going colder than normal again Jan/Feb. But that may be getting ahead of this thread.

 

Can't imagine any meaningful snow in this cold pattern, outside of the mountains and maybe Plateau. Cold fronts will charge through too fast with little chance of a low press wave. This early in the season low press would just stall the cold air keeping lower elevations rain. Be patient though. It is not even calendar or meteorological winter yet.

 

 

That doesn't sound very promising for November snow.

[griteater]

Graph can't handle the -EPO

 

[burgertime]

Sure that is correct but this is what you said :

 

 

 

Again, by that logic if we flip near Thanksgiving to a warmer pattern those changes should be starting now. They won't be for about 10-14 days and the change looks to be fairly quick.  Pattern changes don't allways take 3-4 weeks to materialize. The reality is that this cold shot may not last that long.  There is a met in the TN forum who doesn't see this is a long term shift lasting more than a few weeks before we shift to normal then possibly above normal :  Here is what he said :

 

 

 

 

That doesn't sound very promising for November snow.

 

I get the fear I really do....but that isn't how weather works. Just because it gets a cold snap in November doesn't mean Dec - Jan will be a torch. You've asked Larry to back what he states with facts and science so it's time to step up to the plate as well with this theory that you "waste" a cold pattern early. The bottom line is there is no science to back you up at all. Which is fine but you can't hold others to that type of scrutiny if you aren't willing to put it on yourself. 

[LithiaWx]

I get the fear I really do....but that isn't how weather works. Just because it gets a cold snap in November doesn't mean Dec - Jan will be a torch. You've asked Larry to back what he states with facts and science so it's time to step up to the plate as well with this theory that you "waste" a cold pattern early. The bottom line is there is no science to back you up at all. Which is fine but you can't hold others to that type of scrutiny if you aren't willing to put it on yourself. 

 

I just presented another side to this argument using what a degreed met had to say about it.  I am not going to attempt to explain in detail why he is right because I do not have the education that a met degree comes with to explain it.  That said,patterns don't lock in for months on end very often. So are we are going back to the argument about warm/cold Novembers and wasted patterns? I'm pretty sure that was discussed in depth a couple of days ago and didn't end very well.

 

Also, I never once claimed that a warm or cold November will spell torch in Jan-Feb.  I stated that a cold pattern in November is a waste because when we flip back we will be in met winter.  That will eat away at some time that is more prime than November climo.  As was said earlier today, it's going to come down to when we flip and what time of year it is.  Hopefully the clod flips happen in prime climo.  It's similar to a warm Feb flipping to a colder more conducive pattern in March. Obviously that's not the best timing for us. 

[GaWx]

I get the fear I really do....but that isn't how weather works. Just because it gets a cold snap in November doesn't mean Dec - Jan will be a torch. You've asked Larry to back what he states with facts and science so it's time to step up to the plate as well with this theory that you "waste" a cold pattern early. The bottom line is there is no science to back you up at all. Which is fine but you can't hold others to that type of scrutiny if you aren't willing to put it on yourself. 

 

Plus I actually backed up my claims with a large sample (33) of hard facts (data) for anyone else to verify. The facts, themselves, were the backbone of the idea that us having a cold November would be far from bad in and of itself. In fact, it has tended to be the polar opposite of being bad. It far from guarantees a cold winter, of course. It just is still another piece of the puzzle that would point to a cold winter being likely.

 

*Edited

[Brick Tamland]

Graph can't handle the -EPO

 

 

 

Remember, remember the middle of November.

[superjames1992]

People wanting a good pattern in Jan-Feb (during our best climo and coldest part of the year) makes plenty of sense.  What you are reading is people hoping the flips land in the right spots and has that part of the winter cold.  Seems reasonable to me.

 

I'm not so sure this week/month being cold makes it any more likely next week/month will be warm, though.  Yes, patterns flip, but they can last a long time.  If anything, I would tend to think the opposite is true.

[GaWx]

Snow suggested for parts of NC 11/16 per 12Z Euro...very near Superjames' place. Only light.

[packbacker]

Snow suggested for parts of NC 11/16 per 12Z Euro...very near Superjames' place. Only light.

 

Yep, and a strong piece of energy back over the panhandle..

[griteater]

Snow suggested for parts of NC 11/16 per 12Z Euro...very near Superjames' place. Only light.

 

Hr 192 looks like the heart of winter.  High pressure over the northern plains.  850 zero deg line running from Jackson, MS to Charleston.  Weak wave in southern stream

[Brick Tamland]

So, if the models still show something for late next week on Monday, do we start a thread? 

[superjames1992]

So, if the models still show something for late next week on Monday, do we start a thread? 

 

He with the magic touch starts the thread.

 

BTW, the 12z GFS had some wintry BS at hr 312.

[mackerel_sky]

Snow suggested for parts of NC 11/16 per 12Z Euro...very near Superjames' place. Only light.

Seems like the dates keep getting pushed back? I will feel more comfortable when the new " polar vortex" gets here and we can worry about precip later. I will not be surprised if the very cold air gets held up to our NW, based on past experiences. When the high slides down into MT, that's not ideal trajectory to get us the coldest air into our neck of the woods

[burgertime]

I just presented another side to this argument using what a degreed met had to say about it.  I am not going to attempt to explain in detail why he is right because I do not have the education that a met degree comes with to explain it.  That said,patterns don't lock in for months on end very often. So are we are going back to the argument about warm/cold Novembers and wasted patterns? I'm pretty sure that was discussed in depth a couple of days ago and didn't end very well.

 

Also, I never once claimed that a warm or cold November will spell torch in Jan-Feb.  I stated that a cold pattern in November is a waste because when we flip back we will be in met winter.  That will eat away at some time that is more prime than November climo.  As was said earlier today, it's going to come down to when we flip and what time of year it is.  Hopefully the clod flips happen in prime climo.  It's similar to a warm Feb flipping to a colder more conducive pattern in March. Obviously that's not the best timing for us. 

 

I get it, but it feels like you are afraid that a cold November may lead to a warm torchy December...and much of what we read on the internet comes with a feeling since we can't hear how the person is speaking behind the keyboard. I do not disagree with anything you said about the fact that more than likely there will not be a widespread snow in November for the SE. For me personally it's just fun to speculate and sometimes well lots of times I speculate wildly.  Half the fun is seeing seeing what the models put out and it's really entertaining right now given the month and the odd timing and deepness of the cold. 

I guess here is where I disagree and I'll explain why.

 

 

 

I stated that a cold pattern in November is a waste because when we flip back we will be in met winter.  That will eat away at some time that is more prime than November climo.

This all really comes down to if the winter will overall be above normal. All signs (and yes it's not concrete) point to below average. So if that holds true it won't matter when it flips back...if it is flipping to an overall below average pattern. Your assuming that we flip to a pattern that isn't either seasonal or below average. That's why it feels like you're saying that when the pattern "flips" it's going to flip to the other extreme.

At the end of the day the tale will really be in Dec and Jan. If we see that the pattern is unfavorable then yes it would have been a waste. 

[LithiaWx]

Plus I actually backed up my claims with a large sample (33) of hard facts (data) for anyone else to verify. The facts, themselves, were the backbone of the idea that us having a cold November would be far from bad in and of itself. In fact, it has tended to be the polar opposite of being bad. It far from guarantees a cold winter, of course. It just is still another piece of the puzzle that would point to a cold winter being likely.

 

*Edited

 

The piece of data you didn't include was what your criteria was for a cold/warm/normal Dec-Feb was.  Without that information your work can't be verified because cold/warm/normal are subjective categories without the criteria used to categorize them. using raw figures which I guess I will have to do and coming up with a +/- number for the winter average is the only solution but that will take quite a while.  Perhaps I will find the time to compile it all this weekend but probably not.

[Cold Rain]

The whole wasted pattern/pattern flipping discussion is just silly in and of itself. And I'm not criticizing a soul here because I'm participating too.

There is no reason to think that when this pattern breaks down a long lasting warm pattern is going to set in. Absolutely none whatsoever. If there were, if the weather worked like that and you had a two month period of cold followed by a two month period of warm, then that would make sense. But it doesn't, so it doesn't.

This cold pattern might last a month or it might last two weeks. The subsequent pattern might be a warm one or a variable one. And it might last a month or it might last two weeks.

Nobody has been claiming that we will be wall to wall cold, based on past statistical research. What has been put forward is that certain conditions in October and November statistically correlate to a cold ON AVERAGE winter.

Patterns will flip. They might go to cold, warm, or variable. And they might last a week or a month. But one thing is fairly certain: You're not wasting a cold pattern in early November any more than you are wasting one in early July.

[WxBlue]

13-km GFS is suggesting two waves now with first one arriving Friday morning and second one arriving by Sunday evening. Peaks get good totals on clown map, but this event isn't too bad for Piedmont north of I-40 either.

 

Obviously there's no consistency in any of models and there's little agreement as well.

[Kory]

Uh oh...a little SE ridging late on that Euro run.  At least the southern stream looks active.  

 

[Hvward]

Euro showing a few shots at snow for western and central NC.  Models have been all over the place lately but if we are talking about, I really like what the Euro is showing.

[superjames1992]

You've got to love the addition of the parallel GFS to our repertoire this year.  It gives us yet another model to cherry pick for snow.

[Brick Tamland]

Euro showing a few shots at snow for western and central NC.  Models have been all over the place lately but if we are talking about, I really like what the Euro is showing.

 

I think the important thing is they have all showed potential. That's all we can ask for right now. 

[Kory]

I think the important thing is they have all showed potential. That's all we can ask for right now. 

Also showing several opportunities for rain/some form of precip.  People may finally quit complaining how dry it's been and how this Nino is a failure.  

[griteater]

What does Uh oh mean?

 

Uh oh...a little SE ridging late on that Euro run.  At least the southern stream looks active.  

[Kory]

What does Uh oh mean?

Looks like it warms the temps across the SE a bit around day 10.  I'm not worried at all though, more than likely it'll be gone on the next run and once we get the cold here, it looks like it'll lock in a while. 

[LithiaWx]

I get it, but it feels like you are afraid that a cold November may lead to a warm torchy December...and much of what we read on the internet comes with a feeling since we can't hear how the person is speaking behind the keyboard. I do not disagree with anything you said about the fact that more than likely there will not be a widespread snow in November for the SE. For me personally it's just fun to speculate and sometimes well lots of times I speculate wildly.  Half the fun is seeing seeing what the models put out and it's really entertaining right now given the month and the odd timing and deepness of the cold. 

I guess here is where I disagree and I'll explain why.

 

This all really comes down to if the winter will overall be above normal. All signs (and yes it's not concrete) point to below average. So if that holds true it won't matter when it flips back...if it is flipping to an overall below average pattern. Your assuming that we flip to a pattern that isn't either seasonal or below average. That's why it feels like you're saying that when the pattern "flips" it's going to flip to the other extreme.

At the end of the day the tale will really be in Dec and Jan. If we see that the pattern is unfavorable then yes it would have been a waste. 

 

That is exactly what I am afraid of and it can be proven or disproven pretty easily with a bundle of time to crunch all of the numbers.  I'll make myself a sticky note to look into it but honestly I can't spend much time on this type of stuff while I'm at work.  Typing on a weather forum where I can easily flip back to something else is a lot easier to hide than me researching and crunching a bunch of weather stats. 

[burgertime]

That is exactly what I am afraid of and it can be proven or disproven pretty easily with a bundle of time to crunch all of the numbers.  I'll make myself a sticky note to look into it but honestly I can't spend much time on this type of stuff while I'm at work.  Typing on a weather forum where I can easily flip back to something else is a lot easier to hide than me researching and crunching a bunch of weather stats. 

 

I feel like the works has been done for you though. Look at Allan's long range forecast or DT's. They've crunched the numbers, that's what led to Larry doing his work. Everyone is pretty much in agreement that all signs point to a below average winter. Anything and everything can change of course since at the end of the day ma' nature does what ma' nature wants...but the science and math all points to below average for much of the winter. 

[LithiaWx]

The whole wasted pattern/pattern flipping discussion is just silly in and of itself. And I'm not criticizing a soul here because I'm participating too.

There is no reason to think that when this pattern breaks down a long lasting warm pattern is going to set in. Absolutely none whatsoever. If there were, if the weather worked like that and you had a two month period of cold followed by a two month period of warm, then that would make sense. But it doesn't, so it doesn't.

This cold pattern might last a month or it might last two weeks. The subsequent pattern might be a warm one or a variable one. And it might last a month or it might last two weeks.

Nobody has been claiming that we will be wall to wall cold, based on past statistical research. What has been put forward is that certain conditions in October and November statistically correlate to a cold ON AVERAGE winter.

Patterns will flip. They might go to cold, warm, or variable. And they might last a week or a month. But one thing is fairly certain: You're not wasting a cold pattern in early November any more than you are wasting one in early July.

 

Nice post, hopefully if the discussion continues everyone including myself can keep the discussion from getting personal.  I've decided to take a little edge off my posting style because I obviously ruffled some feathers the other day with my style.