downeastnc Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Still looking like an extended period of unsettled weather upcoming for parts of the Carolinas: RAH HWO: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 332 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-111945- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 332 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Seriously, I'm in the bullseye with you guys, so no need to worry, it won't happen the way it's pictured now. I don't know where all the moisture is going to come from? I'd expect drizzly conditions off and on around my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 That's a healthy amount there, Downeast. There will definitely be some flooding concerns if that pans out. Of course, I would expect Mack's area to get shaved out of there as time draws near...so no flooding concerns there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 That's a healthy amount there, Downeast. There will definitely be some flooding concerns if that pans out. Of course, I would expect Mack's area to get shaved out of there as time draws near...so no flooding concerns there. You can't miss the part about upstate SC being cut off. That "WILL" happen and get me and Mack leaving us with .50 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Gotcha Falls! RAH SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY... ...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: VERY COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN LOOKS TO EVOLVE THIS WEEKEND AS A COMPACT BUT RATHER STOUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST US SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT WITH EMBEDDED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE AND EMBEDDED AXIS OF +2.0 PWATS LINGER ALONG THE NC/SC COAST. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES QUICKLY ARISE...AS THE WETTER EC... WITH ITS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...LIFTS THE FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DRIER GFS WHICH IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...KEEPS THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA WITH NORTHERN STREAM FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES/MERGES INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE EC IS MORE EQUITABLE WITH RAIN CHANCES/QPF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE THE SUPPRESSES THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE TAKING TWO DIFFERENT ROUTES TO GET THERE...THE GFS AND EC ARE SURPRISING IN GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE DEPICTION OF A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT AS H8 SOUTHERLY FLOW ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN OVERRUNNING PRECIP/RAIN AS NEAR SURFACE NELY FLOW LOCKS IN COOL STABLE AIR IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD REMAIN IN THE 60S ALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY... THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT EAST AND ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE WEDGE AIRMASS. MEANWHILE THE EC KEEPS THE WEDGE/DAMMING REGIME IN PLACE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE DIURNAL INSOLATION MAY SERVE TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE ENVIRONMENT.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Gotcha Falls! RAH SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY... ...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: VERY COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN LOOKS TO EVOLVE THIS WEEKEND AS A COMPACT BUT RATHER STOUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST US SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT WITH EMBEDDED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE AND EMBEDDED AXIS OF +2.0 PWATS LINGER ALONG THE NC/SC COAST. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES QUICKLY ARISE...AS THE WETTER EC... WITH ITS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...LIFTS THE FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DRIER GFS WHICH IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...KEEPS THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA WITH NORTHERN STREAM FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES/MERGES INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE EC IS MORE EQUITABLE WITH RAIN CHANCES/QPF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE THE SUPPRESSES THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE TAKING TWO DIFFERENT ROUTES TO GET THERE...THE GFS AND EC ARE SURPRISING IN GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE DEPICTION OF A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT AS H8 SOUTHERLY FLOW ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN OVERRUNNING PRECIP/RAIN AS NEAR SURFACE NELY FLOW LOCKS IN COOL STABLE AIR IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD REMAIN IN THE 60S ALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY... THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT EAST AND ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE WEDGE AIRMASS. MEANWHILE THE EC KEEPS THE WEDGE/DAMMING REGIME IN PLACE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE DIURNAL INSOLATION MAY SERVE TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE ENVIRONMENT.... I'm slipping; I'll getcha next time...... Man I'm really hoping for the dryer solution. It's been so darn rainy, cloudy, or just wet. I think I'm getting on Brick's bandwagon (..at least for a while). ***we even have(had) a chance to see the Northern Lights either tonight or tomorrow night because of an expected solar storm (earth facing sun spot sent out a large flare yesterday). But no, it's going to be cloudy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I'm slipping; I'll getcha next time...... Man I'm really hoping for the dryer solution. It's been so darn rainy, cloudy, or just wet. I think I'm getting on Brick's bandwagon (..at least for a while). ***we even have(had) a chance to see the Northern Lights either tonight or tomorrow night because of an expected solar storm (earth facing sun spot sent out a large flare yesterday). But no, it's going to be cloudy.... We would be able to see them down here? Must be one heck of a solar storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 We would be able to see them down here? Must be one heck of a solar storm!! They're saying possibly mid-latitudes. I saw them a few years back here at my house. It was really impressive. The whole sky to the north turned a reddish color. http://spaceweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 They're saying possibly mid-latitudes. I saw them a few years back here at my house. It was really impressive. The whole sky to the north turned a reddish color. http://spaceweather.com/ That would be awesome! I've never seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 The Northern Lights were seen in SC in March of 1989. I remember the night very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Earliest Snowfall on record today in South Dakota: Lucky Dogs! http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/crime/2014/09/11/inches-possible-black-hills/15434275/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 The Northern Lights were seen in SC in March of 1989. I remember the night very well. They were also visible here during late fall about 7 or 8 years ago (cant remember the exact year). they were green and reddish. Earliest Snowfall on record today in South Dakota: Lucky Dogs! http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/crime/2014/09/11/inches-possible-black-hills/15434275/ Denver as well http://www.myfoxdc.com/story/26507966/summer-snow-covers-ground-in-denver yay, lets hope this is a good omen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 They were also visible here during late fall about 7 or 8 years ago (cant remember the exact year). they were green and reddish. Denver as well http://www.myfoxdc.com/story/26507966/summer-snow-covers-ground-in-denver yay, lets hope this is a good omen lol Actually, that writer is wrong. There has yet to be snow in Denver. It has been rainy with mid 40's. Those shots are of much higher elevations, where there was snow. However, tonight Denver may get snow. Maybe that writer was writing his/her story for tomorrow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I really would love to see the lights, but looks like the weather is not going to cooperate. I wish we could have some nice dry fall days soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 NAM says it's going to be wet across the SE, this is what we want to see in 3-4 months not in Sept.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 ^ The NAM was actually pretty decent with the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 ^ The NAM was actually pretty decent with the last event. Matches up somewhat with the 0z Euro, the GFS is further SW with the precip max, either ways it looks very wet the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 ^ The NAM was actually pretty decent with the last event.Yeah, this looks exactly right! About the lightest green on the map is right over my house! Either we get the screw jobs over before winter, or just keep em coming til March, I'll go with the latter! Atleast cooler weather looks to be here by Sunday, but I'm sure that will change by then, Shetley out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yeah, this looks exactly right! About the lightest green on the map is right over my house! Either we get the screw jobs over before winter, or just keep em coming til March, I'll go with the latter! Atleast cooler weather looks to be here by Sunday, but I'm sure that will change by then, Shetley out! GFS says keep your umbrella on you...the 0z Euro was kind of in the middle of the NAM and GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 You can't miss the part about upstate SC being cut off. That "WILL" happen and get me and Mack leaving us with .50 at best. Guess I need to get a new umbrella and boat motor then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Guess I need to get a new umbrella and boat motor then... They have had to delay our precip chances at least twice now and with almost all rain now in the midlands and headed southeast it looks to be delayed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Forecasters seem to have had a problem all summer pinpointing where the rain will be and how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Forecasters seem to have had a problem all summer pinpointing where the rain will be and how much.I would expect this trend to continue or even get worse as we head torwards winter and potential wintry events ! I guess all these model upgrades aren't helping any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I would expect this trend to continue or even get worse as we head torwards winter and potential wintry events ! I guess all these model upgrades aren't helping any? I was thinking that, too. If it is this hard just forecasting the rain it will be even worse when it comes to wintry events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yeah, this looks exactly right! About the lightest green on the map is right over my house! Either we get the screw jobs over before winter, or just keep em coming til March, I'll go with the latter! Atleast cooler weather looks to be here by Sunday, but I'm sure that will change by then, Shetley out! Haha! The GFS is your friend. I don't know if that's the best friend to have, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 WRAL now saying The heavy rains we thought were headed our way this weekend will stay down toward the coast. We might even see a bright spot or two on Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 WRAL now saying The heavy rains we thought were headed our way this weekend will stay down toward the coast. We might even see a bright spot or two on Saturday! Brick, I guess you are very happy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 WRAL now saying The heavy rains we thought were headed our way this weekend will stay down toward the coast. We might even see a bright spot or two on Saturday! Thank goodness this wasn't a snow event! Weekend will still be wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 They have had to delay our precip chances at least twice now and with almost all rain now in the midlands and headed southeast it looks to be delayed again. Riiiiiggggghhhhhhtttt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Looks like the GFS did the best job modeling this setup. For the last couple of days it continued to show sparse precip. over the northern portions of NC(especially Saturday) while the euro and NAM showed more. I for one am happy as it's looking better for the Oxford Hot Sauce festival tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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