Cold Rain Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 It's very reasonable to think we will flip to a warmer pattern around the start of the year. The question then is how long do we stay. Many think the pattern will "tend" to favor the colder side of the flips through the winter. That means longer cold spells and shorter warm ones. Maybe the next cold flip will then occur right before Christmas (which would be about the right timing). Yes. There is about a 100% chance of a pattern flip to warm at some point. Could be the end of the month or sometime in early December, but we will most certainly go warm at some point. Hopefully, like you said, the warmth will not be a lingering, stable pattern throughout the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yes. There is about a 100% chance of a pattern flip to warm at some point. Could be the end of the month or sometime in early December, but we will most certainly go warm at some point. Hopefully, like you said, the warmth will not be a lingering, stable pattern throughout the winter. Supporting that are the hard numbers. Going back nearly 100 years, no DJF at KATL has had fewer than 18 days that were warmer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 It always flips. The results for a winter is simply based on the timing of the flips, and percentage of time spent in each. Nice summation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yes. There is about a 100% chance of a pattern flip to warm at some point. Could be the end of the month or sometime in early December, but we will most certainly go warm at some point. Hopefully, like you said, the warmth will not be a lingering, stable pattern throughout the winter. I kind of hope it does flip to warm in the beginning of December....so it can flip back cold when it really counts...end of Dec into January. That to me would be perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Supporting that are the hard numbers. Going back nearly 100 years, no DJF at KATL has had fewer than 18 days that were warmer than normal. The good thing is, it doesn't look like there will be a consistent appearance of the SE ridge this winter. We'll have to deal with some storm tracks to our west, but it doesn't look like the SE ridge will be any sort of a permanent or semi-permanent feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I kind of hope it does flip to warm in the beginning of December....so it can flip back cold when it really counts...end of Dec into January. That to me would be perfect timing. I'd be good with that scenario too. Late Dec/early Jan is the best time of the year to get snow, IMO. Short days, low sun angle, near the holidays, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 It's amazing how every single global computer model is predicting a very anomalous cold pattern that actually would be supportive of winter precip (outside the mountains) granted very early compared to climatology... But all I see on here are people complaining about it saying they want it warm now! SMH! You've got to remember which part of the country we live. If the pattern is supportive of snow regardless of which month it is, then I would be rooting for it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 It's amazing how every single global computer model is predicting a very anomalous cold pattern that actually would be supportive of winter precip (outside the mountains) granted very early compared to climatology... But all I see on here are people complaining about it saying they want it warm now! SMH! I think we should take what we can get whenever we can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I think we should take what we can get whenever we can get it. Exactly! If I can get a 1-3inch snowfall in mid-November I would be absolutely tickled to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I kind of hope it does flip to warm in the beginning of December....so it can flip back cold when it really counts...end of Dec into January. That to me would be perfect timing. Looks like there will be constant reloading this year. Slowly but surely, this Winter is setting up to be in the record books. Remember, all it takes is one or two big storms. The fall is already in the record books for KCAE's area to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 It's amazing how every single global computer model is predicting a very anomalous cold pattern that actually would be supportive of winter precip (outside the mountains) granted very early compared to climatology... But all I see on here are people complaining about it saying they want it warm now! SMH! You've got to remember which part of the country we live. If the pattern is supportive of snow regardless of which month it is, then I would be rooting for it to happen. Whoa there nelly!! I didn't say I wanted it to get warmer. I said I'd be ok with it as long as it flips back to cold during better climo, when winter actually starts in late Dec. Just playing the fact that you can't have wall to wall cold for 4 months. I'd rather take a break in Dec and get on the snow train in Jan and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 People wanting a good pattern in Jan-Feb (during our best climo and coldest part of the year) makes plenty of sense. What you are reading is people hoping the flips land in the right spots and has that part of the winter cold. Seems reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 People wanting a good pattern in Jan-Feb (during our best climo and coldest part of the year) makes plenty of sense. What you are reading is people hoping the flips land in the right spots and has that part of the winter cold. Seems reasonable to me. Yup, that's exactly right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yes. There is about a 100% chance of a pattern flip to warm at some point. Could be the end of the month or sometime in early December, but we will most certainly go warm at some point. Hopefully, like you said, the warmth will not be a lingering, stable pattern throughout the winter.Maybe the flip to warm will come in April like the flip to cold did in 2012!??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Man not sure what I think of the 12z GFS. Looks like maybe some wintery precip for NC at the day 6/7(freezing rain / sleet??). After that there is now a lot of cold coming into the country. There looks to be some potential for another system. Taken literally, there would be some more cold air pushing towards us a few days before Thanksgiving with some kind of southern system/moisture following. (but)Details should not be focused on, just the really nice pattern that could produce some kind of SE winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Man not sure what I think of the 12z GFS. Looks like maybe some wintery precip for NC at the day 6/7(freezing rain / sleet??). After that there is now a lot of cold coming into the country. There looks to be some potential for another system. Taken literally, there would be some more cold air pushing towards us a few days before Thanksgiving with some kind of southern system/moisture following. (but)Details should not be focused on, just the really nice pattern that could produce some kind of SE winter event. I agree about the pattern. Good discussion between Bob Chill and WxUAF in the MA forum about the stability of the pattern. It looks as if we can get a November event, it may stick around on the ground for a while due to the cold and lowering sun angle. Below is a quote from the MA thread. Dang that pattern is tasty. And that's a full week after the big ARCTIC BOMB-FROPA OF POLAR VORTEX DOOM next week. That sort of longwave pattern is a naturally very stable one. It seems the odds are good that we're going to have a long duration of a strong -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 12z GFS looks an awful lot like the 00z Euro between 168-240 hours with the synoptic set up. Piece of energy swinging east out of the Rockies with a very cold airmass for next week. Lots a precip and a cold airmass in place...I like the look of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Man not sure what I think of the 12z GFS. Looks like maybe some wintery precip for NC at the day 6/7(freezing rain / sleet??). After that there is now a lot of cold coming into the country. There looks to be some potential for another system. Taken literally, there would be some more cold air pushing towards us a few days before Thanksgiving with some kind of southern system/moisture following. (but)Details should not be focused on, just the really nice pattern that could produce some kind of SE winter event. Here's the 12Z GFS below.... I don't quite understand this potential system next week. It's got a LOW forming off the coast, looks like it's way too far east to do anything for the carolinas but precip is still shown. I'm not sure what mechanism is bring the precip. It does show a CAD signature and all, but it just doesn't look right to me. I find myself very "meh" about this time period so far from what the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Whoa there nelly!! I didn't say I wanted it to get warmer. I said I'd be ok with it as long as it flips back to cold during better climo, when winter actually starts in late Dec. Just playing the fact that you can't have wall to wall cold for 4 months. I'd rather take a break in Dec and get on the snow train in Jan and Feb. Here is the point I'm trying to make...be careful with wishing "hey, I won't mind a December warmup as long as the pattern flips back in January" ... Pattern reversals just does not happen overnight it takes a period of several weeks up to about a month. This current pattern that we are getting ready to enter has been about three or four weeks in the works plus it's getting the assistance of a massive tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Here is the point I'm trying to make...be careful with wishing "hey, I won't mind a December warmup as long as the pattern flips back in January" ... Pattern reversals just does not happen overnight it takes a period of several weeks up to about a month. This current pattern that we are getting ready to enter has been about three or four weeks in the works plus it's getting the assistance of a massive tropical system. By that logic if we flip to warm around Thanksgiving then the next pattern reversal has already started before this new pattern can settle on in. Wow, that made my head hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Here's the 12Z GFS below.... I don't quite understand this potential system next week. It's got a LOW forming off the coast, looks like it's way too far east to do anything for the carolinas but precip is still shown. I'm not sure what mechanism is bring the precip. It does show a CAD signature and all, but it just doesn't look right to me. I find myself very "meh" about this time period so far from what the models show. I would be "meh" about the details it is showing. We have a significant pattern change occurring and I think the models are having a very difficult time; even out to the day 6/7 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I would be "meh" about the details it is showing. We have a significant pattern change occurring and I think the models are having a very difficult time; even out to the day 6/7 range. Agreed. The models struggle with such anomalous patterns and until Nuri gets absorbed and additional data sampled, they will continue to struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue Arctic reloads cold-air for the following week too. Extended period of cold, Arctic high pressure locked on CONUS pic.twitter.com/hiJHel18Kj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue Arctic reloads cold-air for the following week too. Extended period of cold, Arctic high pressure locked on CONUS pic.twitter.com/hiJHel18Kj No dang it!! That's messing up my plans! November/Dec thaw, then Dec/Jan icebox. I'm going to write a letter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Cold to colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Here's the 12Z GFS below.... I don't quite understand this potential system next week. It's got a LOW forming off the coast, looks like it's way too far east to do anything for the carolinas but precip is still shown. I'm not sure what mechanism is bring the precip. It does show a CAD signature and all, but it just doesn't look right to me. I find myself very "meh" about this time period so far from what the models show. It's probably the upper level low or lee trough. Alot of times, for whatever reason, when there's a low off the coast, models show a blob hanging back over the Carolina's and gives false hope of precip and usually is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Cold to colder B12vJMSCMAAuNA0.png That looks amazing! You can see the higher heights in Canada , possibly helping to lock in the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Liking what I see of the GFS beta....will be interesting to see if the Euro has something similar. I'm really liking this new GFS as it seems to fall more in line with the Euro. Again no need to sweet the fine details right now. I think it's a safe bet someone in the mountains and parts of WNC will see some winter action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 BTW CMC also looks close but kind of stalls everything in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Trend today has been to dig the s/w further west, thus propping up the downstream ridge over the SE a bit more and slow the advance of the arctic front. This means most wintry precip is over western NC and VA. Still 6-8 days out so things can change for sure. By the way made some changes to the way I process the Canadian model and we should see faster delivery on the page this year. 12z run finished up today around 12:30-12:45 instead of 1:30-2 which had been the norm. Cold pattern looks to be here to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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