HKY18 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Looks like 850's and surface temps are below freezing just northwest of CLT back into the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 WNC looking good on the 0z GFS. Long ways to go though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Who's all in for Superjames' 0Z GFS 11/14 snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Just for comparision sake...the current operational GFS (Day 7) vs the upgraded version that's still in Beta form... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yikes KRDU looks ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 That's a lot of ice, ice, baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Who's all in for Superjames' 0Z GFS 11/14 snow? I can't decide. I mean, it's November. I can't recall snow accumulating more than a dusting here aside from once in my life. Case study: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001119/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Looks pretty Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 This is the same GFS as last year, so remember Exact precip amounts are going to be suspect The storm track could be pretty far off from what is shown The storm could even disappear and reappear for a few days The storm may just be suppressed by a lot of cold air A lot hinges on what happens in Alaska, how far south the cold will make it, and what moisture, if any will fall where. The most likely scenario at this time, in my opinion: It'll be a little colder than last weekend Mountains will still get snow regardless, but not as much Rain in the valleys, maybe a few flakes mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Before anyone asks. KCAE is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 How much for Orangeburg❄⛄ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Doc? Mack, you don't want to know. I'm not all in for Superjames or anyone. Edit: let's see about a CAD afterward, however...never mind. Remember there's still a lot more winter to go....well, actually all of winter to go for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Doc? Mack, you don't want to know. I'm not all in for Superjames or anyone. Edit: let's see about a CAD afterward, however...never mind. Remember there's still a lot more winter to go....well, actually all of winter to go for that matter. That's actually good news ! I don't want to miss the dd2 gtg because of snow or ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Superjames You're talking about November snow. My mother-in-law always talks about the snow the area had on the ground the day my wife was born. Let's see if it is true. Check out Nov 16th, 1952 or thereabouts for the triad area of North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Just glancing at the 6z GFS it looks like a major ice storm for northern NC (particularly RDU). I don't have surface temps / dew points but this looks like it could be big. 850s stay right along the NC/Vir boarder and even slowly push southward (not away like many other situations). There is a good amount of precip with the heaviest amounts across north central NC. Still far out and this will definitely look different with next model runs; but the players are on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Looking at overnight models it seems the GFS was an anomaly. Euro has nothing really outside of rain ahead of the cold front and the GFS beta keeps everything dry as well. That being said it's too early to work out the details. I have a hard time buying with such a sustained cold and with the battle lines of the really cold air setting up around NC/SC that you don't see an impulse ride up along that line. I'll be more interested to see what the models have to say come Monday and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Looking at overnight models it seems the GFS was an anomaly. Euro has nothing really outside of rain ahead of the cold front and the GFS beta keeps everything dry as well. That being said it's too early to work out the details. I have a hard time buying with such a sustained cold and with the battle lines of the really cold air setting up around NC/SC that you don't see an impulse ride up along that line. I'll be more interested to see what the models have to say come Monday and Tuesday. Agreed. We need to get a little closer to the possible event to let the models at least depict the general setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Superjames You're talking about November snow. My mother-in-law always talks about the snow the area had on the ground the day my wife was born. Let's see if it is true. Check out Nov 16th, 1952 or thereabouts for the triad area of North Carolina. Here's the file but you need a browser plugin: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1952/19521116.djvu The plugin is on this page as well as the screens to allow you to pick the day you want to look at .The link above is the 16th. No snow in NC I don't think, at least not on that day. :-) I didn't check any other days, but it is fun to poke around on known good days to see what the actual map looked like. 1968 and up have additional maps and charts. http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdocmaps/daily_weather_maps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Before anyone asks. KCAE is all rain. LOL - BTW, is the JMA on board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Looks like a model war is ongoing , GFS vs Euro, they are totally different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Looks like a model war is ongoing , GFS vs Euro, they are totally different New GFS (beta) lines up pretty well with the Euro....so I think the old GFS is out to lunch as usual....but again I'll hold out until next week. All are in agreement of cold air coming into much of the CONUS and that's the first step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The EURO ENS is pretty close to the old GFS. Not a lot of difference between them at all. I think the main thing to note is the models line up on top of each other as far as the HP. It's pretty much a given it will be in place. The main differences are in the timing or if there will be an impulse riding up the SE side of the Arctic airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 06 GFS better be out to lunch! Showing 1.5" zr next Thur/Fri for RDU on coolwx.com - Wife has a Dr. appt. in Raleigh Next Thur! http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Just took a look at the 10 day forecast from Weatherbug on my phone. Has an 80% chance of frozen mix for the 14th, a 40% chance for the 15th, and a 50% chance for the 16th. Maybe it won't happen, but it sure is fun having something to track already and seeing the potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Thanks for the links Steve! Will check out later from PC. Answering from my cell for now. I always said my mother-in-law's memory is shaky at times... And now I'm afraid one joined her! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Just took a look at the 10 day forecast from Weatherbug on my phone. Has an 80% chance of frozen mix for the 14th, a 40% chance for the 15th, and a 50% chance for the 16th. Maybe it won't happen, but it sure is fun having something to track already and seeing the potential there. The bolded is how you know to throw that program out. No decent met would put an 80% chance of any precipitation a week out, much less for a wintry mix for Raleigh in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 It's hard to get excited about model watching in Mid-November. I think in 4 weeks and should be cooking with something that would be a more reasonable possibility. That said I've seen some mets thinking we flip back to a warmer pattern around Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 It's hard to get excited about model watching in Mid-November. I think in 4 weeks and should be cooking with something that would be a more reasonable possibility. That said I've seen some mets thinking we flip back to a warmer pattern around Thanksgiving. It always flips. The results for a winter is simply based on the timing of the flips, and percentage of time spent in each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 It's hard to get excited about model watching in Mid-November. I think in 4 weeks and should be cooking with something that would be a more reasonable possibility. That said I've seen some mets thinking we flip back to a warmer pattern around Thanksgiving. I think it's pretty exciting having something to watch already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 It's hard to get excited about model watching in Mid-November. I think in 4 weeks and should be cooking with something that would be a more reasonable possibility. That said I've seen some mets thinking we flip back to a warmer pattern around Thanksgiving. It's very reasonable to think we will flip to a warmer pattern around the start of the year. The question then is how long do we stay. Many think the pattern will "tend" to favor the colder side of the flips through the winter. That means longer cold spells and shorter warm ones. Maybe the next cold flip will then occur right before Christmas (which would be about the right timing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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