tnweathernut Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Don't know how they measure it, but seems to fly against recent data. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Wonder how early a CAD event has produced 0.25+ of ZR in the SE. Mid Nov. is very early Worst ice storm I ever experienced was about a day or two into December 2002 or 3? No power for 7 days, so that's only roughly 2 weeks ahead of next weekends time frame, so it's possible! Had atleast 1/2 inch accretion and inch of sleet, temps 26-28 all day, 65 day before. lol - i cant believe we already have winter wx showing up on the models in NOV! i would normally dismiss it outright, but hey look at SC and the snow nov 1 i have experienced some major ice storms the first week or so in Dec, but do not really recall any in november. i am still dubious but if it keeps showing up maybe our winter will really start off with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Wonder how early a CAD event has produced 0.25+ of ZR in the SE. Mid Nov. is very early For the city of Atlanta, itself, it appears to have been 11/24/1971. Interestingly, this came on the heels of the latest major ATL ZR on record, 3/25/1971! The 11/24/1971 ZR was severe as far south as Alpharetta (a northern ATL burb). Regarding this same storm (11-24-5/1971): "For Northeast Georgia into northwest South Carolina and the western Piedmont of North Carolina Duke district manager in Greenville 'one of worst catastrophes of recent years'; more damage than usual because trees still had leaves" Edit: Nov. KATL accumulating snows: 11/27/1912: 2.2"; 11/11/1968: 1.0" (El Nino); 11/23/1975: 0.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I don't get that move at all. This is a classic developing Nino. I agree, I don't get why it dropped from October's runs, unless they thought ASO reading would have been higher than 0.2. I guess there is an outside chance of SON hitting 0.5, with a great chance of OND hitting that threshold. Which means it would have to last until FMA to satisfy CPC's criteria of 5 consecutive overlapping 3 month seasons. I guess it doesn't really matter, this may end up being like 79/80 where only 4 consecutive overlapping 3 month seasons occurred. What did CPC have for Sept? I believe they had Oct at 0.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Any word on the Euro ensembles? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Any word on the Euro ensembles? Thanks! More of the same, deep eastern trough, west coast ridge through the day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Any word on the Euro ensembles? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 For the city of Atlanta, itself, it appears to have been 11/24/1971. Interestingly, this came on the heels of the latest major ATL ZR on record, 3/25/1971! The 11/24/1971 ZR was severe as far south as Alpharetta (a northern ATL burb). Regarding this same storm (11-24-5/1971): "For Northeast Georgia into northwest South Carolina and the western Piedmont of North Carolina Duke district manager in Greenville 'one of worst catastrophes of recent years'; more damage than usual because trees still had leaves" Edit: Nov. KATL accumulating snows: 11/27/1912: 2.2"; 11/11/1968: 1.0" (El Nino); 11/23/1975: 0.6" GaWx, Are you going to be up to give us our first Euro pbp tonight? It looks kind of interesting and it's inside of 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 For the city of Atlanta, itself, it appears to have been 11/24/1971. Interestingly, this came on the heels of the latest major ATL ZR on record, 3/25/1971! The 11/24/1971 ZR was severe as far south as Alpharetta (a northern ATL burb). Regarding this same storm (11-24-5/1971): "For Northeast Georgia into northwest South Carolina and the western Piedmont of North Carolina Duke district manager in Greenville 'one of worst catastrophes of recent years'; more damage than usual because trees still had leaves" Edit: Nov. KATL accumulating snows: 11/27/1912: 2.2"; 11/11/1968: 1.0" (El Nino); 11/23/1975: 0.6" Wasn't there a big November snow in 1950 ? I thought Rome got like feet of snow and I guess Atlanta got nothing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Not a WeatherBell subscriber so links don't open. :~( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Not a WeatherBell subscriber so links don't open. :~( I just edited the post by saving and attaching rather than using the link...it may work now. If not...I'll briefly go over them. 31/50 ensemble members show accumulating snow for Asheville (1.5 inches ENS mean) and 22/50 show accumulating snow for Hickory and Greensboro (1 inch ENS mean) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I just edited the post by saving and attaching rather than using the link...it may work now. If not...I'll briefly go over them. 31/50 ensemble members show accumulating snow for Asheville (1.5 inches ENS mean) and 22/50 show accumulating snow for Hickory and Greensboro (1 inch ENS mean) Got it; works; thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Classic cad showing up on the latest GFS. Pretty awesome sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Wasn't there a big November snow in 1950 ? I thought Rome got like feet of snow and I guess Atlanta got nothing ? Snow, Not feet. Rome got 0.8" on 11/24/1950. KATL got a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Euro ensembles are showing a back end overrunning ice to snow scenario it appears, however much more delayed than the old-GFS. The most exciting thing about this setup is the fact that the HP is a result of the Aleutian low revving up as we head towards winter, which raises the heights over western Canada. That allows this HP to slide down from northern Canada and virtually sit over the northern plains. That is generally a cornerstone of most great SE winter storm setups. With such a strong +PNA setup, the pattern slows down and pacfic air is sealed off from flooding the CONUS. It's also an exciting pattern if it repeats throughout winter. If I have time I really want to make a winter forecast in the next few weeks. This winter could be historical. I attached an OP EURO 500mb height pattern below for NHEM. That pacific pattern and western Canadian pattern is the best we've seen since 2002/2003. I have seen research that suggests PNA heights are more important than NAO phases when it comes to specific winter storms in the southeast. This could indeed be a very early season storm next week for someone in the SE and Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 GaWx, Are you going to be up to give us our first Euro pbp tonight? It looks kind of interesting and it's inside of 10 days. Well, being that I set my clocks/watches back 3 hours instead of one and, therefore, get the complete Euro by midnight :), I likely will be up. If so, I'll try to remember to do a little bit of pbp for any possible threat. I'm loving being in this time zone. I'm on CO time and don't even have to travel there. Why didn't I do this years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Understanding that many respected mets with wholly differing "personalities" and for varying reasons are generally calling for a colder than normal and possibly wetter than normal SE winter from December into March -- Has anyone done any study or analysis on what has historically happened when we get a really abnormal cold in November (as seems to be progged) as we move into Dec, then into Jan & Feb? As I see these models showing such early cold and snow potential, I keep thinking about the pendulum on my mantle clock ... and thinking about the old folks since passed I grew up around saying cold in the SE lasts 6 weeks, whenever it comes .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Good write-up HKY. This is lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Has anyone done any study or analysis on what has historically happened when we get a really abnormal cold in November (as seems to be progged) as we move into Dec, then into Jan & Feb? Well, when November has been cold in Atlanta during anything from high end neutral + ENSO to low end moderate Nino, the winters have had more of a tendency to be.....ooops......never mind. I'd better stop here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Well, when November has been cold in Atlanta during anything from high end neutral + ENSO to low end moderate Nino, the winters have tended to have more of a tendency to be.....ooops......never mind. I'd better stop here. Please don't stop. That was a serious question I asked -- has anyone got any data or a study on cold Nov's vs. long range SE winters? I've scoured and can't find anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Understanding that many respected mets with wholly differing "personalities" and for varying reasons are generally calling for a colder than normal and possibly wetter than normal SE winter from December into March -- Has anyone done any study or analysis on what has historically happened when we get a really abnormal cold in November (as seems to be progged) as we move into Dec, then into Jan & Feb? As I see these models showing such early cold and snow potential, I keep thinking about the pendulum on my mantle clock ... and thinking about the old folks since passed I grew up around saying cold in the SE lasts 6 weeks, whenever it comes .... Just one example, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Please don't stop. That was a serious question I asked -- has anyone got any data or a study on cold Nov's vs. long range SE winters? I've scoured and can't find anything. pcbjr, OK, I'm going to tell you but I'm going to whisper it to you and with some dashes for added protection. Those winters following cold Novembers for the noted ENSO analog range have had more of a tendency to be c--- vs. when Nov. is warm based strictly on KATL data. I recommend you keep kind of quiet about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Just one example, but... I was living in N Indiana on the shore of Lake Michigan that winter. YIKES it was. But I'm a born and bred southerner, and for the life of me, can't find anything that discusses cold Nov vs. the remainder of a SE winter. If anyone has any data, it would be intersting to see and then watch as we move forward long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 pcbjr, OK, I'm going to tell you but I'm going to whisper it to you and with some dashes for added protection. Those winters following cold Novembers for the noted ENSO analog range have had more of a tendency to be c--- vs. when Nov. is warm based strictly on KATL data. I recommend you keep kind of quiet about this. Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 SmokiesRoadsNPS Clingmans Dome Road is temporarily closed due to pending overnight snow. #GSMNP 11/6/14, 10:36 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Good write-up HKY. This is lol... I wonder why it shows the entire eastern 2/3 of the country below normal except for South Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Hkywx I've said it before and will keep saying it, my main signal of choice is always a + pna, before a -nao or any others. It will offer up more oppurtunity over the long haul than any other simply by delivering the fresh cold consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Superjames snow on 11/14 per 0Z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I don't think this threat next week is going to be disappearing anytime soon...looks legit. In the CPC 6-10 day discussion, they mentioned how the ensembles are showing good agreement..."model spread is low" 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 12 - 16 2014 TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN PREDICTING A VERY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE MODELS AGREE IN PREDICTING A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE, RIDGING IS FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE A DEEP TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA INDICATING GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 0z GFS is unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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