packbacker Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Upgraded GFS has it too. Will have the high res 13km snow map in a bit. 12z CMC shows overrunning event same timeframe, looks wintery for western Piedmont and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Tell that to the models lol they running some pretty outrageous stuff for November which is fueling all this stuff, climo strongly suggest snow is unlikely but hell who would EVER think that the midlands of SC could get 3-5" on Dec 1st much less Nov 1st. Bozart said one time that some years it just wants to snow and it seems this is gonna be one of those years. Sorry...I meant early for the complaining. Certainly, the models continue to show an impressive cold blast for so early in the season, though I would expect the wintry threat to be tempered as we close in....especially in central/eastern areas. Fun start so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I think with amount of cold air coming this is a definitely more than just fantasy. I would even say, as the time get closer the models may start showing something a little more widespread. I agree with that statement. I don't think the models have a good handle on the changes yet. We're still 7 days out and with such an changing amp'd up pattern, latching on to a solution this early will be difficult. I have a feeling that many things will be changing before it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Parallel GFS hour 198 has this to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Thanks. Yep, the signal is undeniable on the models. The fact it is early calls for some conservatism, but the synoptic setup if true is very interesting. Anomalous arctic high with overruning can produce wintry weather as early as mid-november. I attached the 00z GGEM sleet/freezing rain forecasts. Raleigh - the Nov 1976 storm you mentioned on twitter and the Nov 2000 storm are both at the top of the list on the CPC D11 matching analogs (close to the storm dates)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 The 12z CMC (day 8-9) is a big winter storm for NC and points west of 85. Snow map will be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 The 12z CMC (day 8-9) is a big winter storm for NC and points west of 85. Snow map will be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 The 12z CMC (day 8-9) is a big winter storm for NC and points west of 85. Snow map will be big. Brad P. reports (I'm assuming 0z run) that 11 of 52 members of EURO ENS have snow in Charlotte next Friday. It's getting legs. I wonder what the EURO will show this afternoon... I'm not expecting much as this is freakin November. But hey, it's November!! Pretty cool nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 And from the hi res 13km upgraded GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 GEM snowfall map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 JB also likes November 1976 as an analog for this month and 1976 as an analog for this winter. Toward the end of October it looked like November would be an above average month until recently guidance has flipped big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Always fun to get something to start chasing. Should be a very active winter. Hopefully somebody cashes in next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Widremann has been this way since I started posting on Eastern back in 2005 or so ( and for those who have been here longer I am sure he was like that way before I came along), he is practically a institution on to himself and no SE snowstrom thread is complete without Widremann coming in an poo pooing on the parade. The rest of these debbie downers are just posers who wish they had it like Widremann does.... I have the next 10 days off from work, I am loving the cold signal for next week, if reminds me of how 2009-2010 flipped to winter only it is 2 weeks sooner...... LOL good old Widre. I'm sure he must be a pleasure to be around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 This was the snowfall forecast from the overruning event from todays 12z GFS.. The 27km hi res snow That would be something to see for this time of year around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 12z euro looks to have CAD signature at hour 192. Only have access to the free site and have no idea if there would be any over-riding precip. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014110612®ion=USA&var=PRMSLI_msl&hour=192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 12z Euro showing a stronger surface high delivering next week's cold air...what was a mid 1030's range high sliding into the Northern Plains is in the 1044mb range (Day 6) on the 12z run...that kind of surface high is more in line with the experimental GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 That frigid air on the Euro certainly is in no hurry at all to get out. Euro has it arriving next Thursday and lingering through the weekend for the SE alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 That frigid air on the Euro certainly is in no hurry at all to get out. Euro has it arriving next Thursday and lingering through the weekend for the SE alone. so the Euro has the cold air........ anything else? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Not all the way rolled out yet on my source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Here were the 12z Canadian snow zoomed for SE with grid point totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 so the Euro has the cold air........ anything else? TW ECMWF clown map got a minor event for East Tennessee and Western NC. Kinda like Canadian map, but way less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Allan, I sent you a message through private, but it basically says I can't. So I'll post it here: "Wondering if you were using Gempak to generate the weather model data? I have it, but haven't gotten everything configured up well. Grads is something I can sorta use, but wondering if Gempak is really just that much better and if I should stick with it? I can get access to a noaa port." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 18z GFS continues to look intriguing. Clown map is fun to look at for SW VA and NW NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 18z GFS continues to look intriguing. Clown map is fun to look at for SW VA and NW NC. Not sure about surface temps but that would be a major ice event for CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Not sure about surface temps but that would be a major ice event for CAD areas. Agree. Strong CAD signal towards the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Wonder how early a CAD event has produced 0.25+ of ZR in the SE. Mid Nov. is very early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Not sure about surface temps but that would be a major ice event for CAD areas. Soundings look IP-ish. Surface temps are in the 20's up this way and lower 30's closer towards Boone. AVL area looks like it would be a cold rain. CAD slowly erodes and most places in W/NW NC go above freezing after 12z Friday. Ah, feels good to be back discussing model runs even though it's still a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 CPC lowered the chance of an El Niño by 7% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 CPC lowered the chance of an El Niño by 7% I don't get that move at all. This is a classic developing Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Wonder how early a CAD event has produced 0.25+ of ZR in the SE. Mid Nov. is very earlyWorst ice storm I ever experienced was about a day or two into December 2002 or 3? No power for 7 days, so that's only roughly 2 weeks ahead of next weekends time frame, so it's possible! Had atleast 1/2 inch accretion and inch of sleet, temps 26-28 all day, 65 day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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